Mexico Morning Markets: Peso Firms As IPC Rebounds; Dollar Index Softens

The Mexican peso steadied early Tuesday, with USD/MXN near 18.51 as the U.S. Dollar Index hovered around 99.2 after slipping overnight on renewed U.S.–China trade frictions.

The softer dollar tone and firmer risk appetite follow Monday’s climb in Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC, which closed up 0.79% at 61,045 on roughly 126.6 million shares traded.

Top movers on Monday’s IPC session underscored a tilt toward miners and domestics. Winners: Industrias Peñoles (+5.1%), Gentera (+5.0%), Becle/Cuervo (+4.4%), Grupo México (+2.8%), and PINFRA (+2.6%).

Losers: Genomma Lab (−2.8%), Grupo Comercial Chedraui (−2.6%), Quálitas (−2.0%), GAP/Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (−2.0%), and FEMSA (−1.8%). In currencies, traders highlighted that the peso’s path remains tightly linked to the dollar leg.

Money-market desks said the broader dollar narrative is fragile: “Any flare-up in U.S.–China tension tends to knock the dollar back after short squeezes,” one FX dealer noted, echoing Monday’s swing.

Others warned that the structural case for a stronger dollar—resilient U.S. real rates and productivity—remains a medium-term risk to EMFX.

ETF lens: iShares MSCI Mexico (EWW) last closed at 65.47 with net assets around $2.16 billion and daily volume close to 2.0 million shares. Primary-market creations/redemptions for today were not yet posted at press time.

Macro context is balanced for the peso. September inflation at 3.76% keeps Banxico within its 3%±1 target band, allowing cautious easing without urgency. Oil’s modest rebound adds a marginal tailwind to Mexico-risk, though positioning is light into the Q3 earnings season.

Technical picture

• USD/MXN: On the 4-hour chart, momentum is mildly bullish (RSI high-50s/low-60s) with price pressing 18.52–18.58; a clear break above ~18.60 would target 18.75–18.85. The daily chart is range-bound (RSI mid-50s, MACD near flat), with support at 18.35–18.45.
• IPC: The 4-hour profile shows fading downside momentum with RSI in the high-40s and MACD improving toward neutral; the daily setup is a consolidation above 60,400–60,800 support, with 61,300–61,500 as near resistance.

Bottom line: With DXY soft and local equities stabilizing, Mexico opens on a firmer footing. The peso’s near-term bias is range-to-slightly-MXN-positive unless the dollar index breaks higher; for equities, a 4-hour momentum turn above the short-term moving averages would tee up another test of 61.3k–61.5k.

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