López Aliaga List Leads Lima Mayor Count by 0.86 Points

ELECTIONS · PERU

The Lima mayor count in Peru put former mayor Rafael López Aliaga’s list 0.86 points ahead of Francis Allison on Monday. About 1,924 tally sheets sent to election judges may now decide who runs the capital of a top copper producer.

For foreign investors and visitors, the race decides who governs Peru’s business and tourism hub, a city of roughly 10 million people. Legal reviews could delay the answer for weeks.

Allison, the mayor of Lima’s Magdalena district, says challenged sheets could still turn the race. On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market with about US$486,000 traded, bettors still make López Aliaga a heavy favourite.

Where the Lima Mayor Count Stands

At 10:45 a.m. on Monday, ONPE, Peru’s national election office, had counted 92.699% of Lima’s 26,351 tally sheets. Renovación Popular, the conservative party López Aliaga founded and leads, led with 27.703% of valid votes.

Allison had 26.841% for Avanza País, a gap of 0.86 points, the state news agency Andina and the broadcaster RPP reported. Avanza País is a pro-market party whose platform backs a social market economy and a firm line on crime.

At the previous cut of 92.687%, that meant 1,443,742 votes against 1,398,906, a gap of 44,836, ONPE figures carried by Andina and the regional daily El Tiempo showed.

Carlos Bruce, a former housing minister, was a distant third with 15.085%. Daniel Urresti, a former interior minister, was fourth with 8.009%. Twenty-six lists competed for Lima Metropolitana, and Bruce has no realistic path back into the race.

The lead has moved in both directions since polls closed on Sunday at 5 p.m. (6 p.m. ET). It was 1.6 points at 26.1% counted, shrank to about a quarter of a point overnight, then widened again.

At 06:22 on Monday, the official gazette El Peruano reported 27.67% to 26.89% with 91.79% counted. The tighter overnight picture is in Lima Vote Count at 60.6%: López Aliaga List Leads.

Why 1,924 Tally Sheets Now Matter

In the 92.687% cut, 7.301% of Lima’s sheets were marked for the special election juries, known by the Spanish acronym JEE. Only 0.012% were still pending, according to the ONPE figures reported by the magazine Caretas.

That is about 1,924 sheets. ONPE sends a sheet to the juries when it shows arithmetic errors, illegible or missing figures, missing signatures, or a challenged vote.

At the average of the sheets already counted, 1,924 sheets would hold roughly 410,000 valid votes. That is an estimate derived from ONPE totals, not an official figure.

To close a gap of about 45,000 votes, Allison would need to beat the López Aliaga list by about 11 points among those votes. Some sheets may also be annulled, which would shrink the pool.

Allison says a reversal is still possible, citing the eastern district of Ate. “There are many challenged sheets, and the difference may lie in those challenges,” he told reporters on Monday.

What Happens If the Gap Stays Small

There is no runoff for mayor of Lima. The list with the most valid votes wins whatever the margin, while governors need 30% to avoid a runoff on 29 November.

The juries rule on each observed sheet, and parties may appeal to the National Jury of Elections (JNE), Peru’s top electoral court. Officials have said final results can take several weeks, the news site Infobae reported.

A second question sits on top of the count: López Aliaga ran as first councillor because Peru bars immediate re-election. The JNE has not said whether he may take the post.

If the credential were denied, the next name on his list, councillor Jeanette Alonzo Contreras, would take office, the Lima daily El Comercio reported. That dispute is set out in Peru Lima Mayor Race: López Aliaga Warns Election Judges.

How Both Camps Are Responding

So far both sides have kept the fight inside the rules. Allison said Avanza País would file no new challenges and would only defend those already lodged.

“We are respectful of what people have decided,” he said, and he rejected any talk of fraud. He also said the judges should hand López Aliaga the credential if his list wins.

López Aliaga has been less committal. Asked after the vote whether he would accept the result, he replied “let me see”, El Comercio reported.

He said 28,000 poll watchers from his party had covered Lima. After missing the presidential runoff in April, he alleged fraud over polling stations in south Lima that opened late.

The calmer reading is that the count itself is nearly complete and largely uncontested on numbers. The risk lies in the legal questions that follow, not in the arithmetic.

What It Means for You

For US investors, a city race does not set Peru’s economic or mining policy, which rests with the president and Congress. US-listed Peruvian names such as Credicorp and Southern Copper move far more on copper prices and national policy.

The mayor runs city services such as roads, public transport and local permits, which matter to companies operating in the capital. The current city government stays in office until the new term starts on 1 January.

For visitors and expatriates, the dispute is so far a legal contest handled by election bodies. Allison has rejected talk of fraud, while López Aliaga has not said whether he will accept the result.

What Is Not Known

ONPE has not published how many votes the sheets sent to the juries contain, or which districts they come from. Allison’s claim of strong results in Ate is his own and has not been independently confirmed.

No date has been set for proclaiming the Lima result. JNE president Roberto Burneo said official results could come by late October or early November, RPP reported.

The JNE has also not ruled on the credential question, which could produce appeals once the count ends.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket’s “Lima Mayoral Election Winner” market, bets gave López Aliaga a 94.3% chance and Allison 4.9% at 12:30 p.m. ET on 5 October. About US$486,000 has been traded on the market.

Allison’s price roughly doubled from 2.2% earlier on Monday, while López Aliaga slipped from 95.3%. Bettors still see the official gap of under one point as hard to close.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Who is winning the Lima mayor count?

At 92.699% of tally sheets counted on 5 October, Rafael López Aliaga’s list led Francis Allison by 0.86 points. ONPE put it at 27.703% to 26.841%.

Is there a runoff for mayor of Lima?

No. The list with the most valid votes wins outright. Runoffs apply only to regional governor races, and those are set for Sunday 29 November.

Can López Aliaga become mayor if his list wins?

He ran as first councillor because mayors cannot be immediately re-elected. Peru’s electoral authorities have not yet said whether he will receive the mayor’s credential.

Sources: ONPE official count, Lima Metropolitana, 4 to 5 October 2026, as reported by Andina (ONPE count at 92.699%); El Peruano (ONPE at 91.79%); El Tiempo (vote totals); Caretas (sheets for the juries); El Comercio (Allison, 5 October); El Comercio (López Aliaga and the credential); Infobae (observed sheets); RPP (count at 92.699%, JNE timeline). Polymarket market data, 5 October 2026.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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