Panama Economy Grows 5.5% in the First Half of 2026
PANAMA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —What happened Panama’s statistics institute reported growth of 5.5% for the first half of 2026.
- —The quarter The second quarter alone grew 6.4% against the same period a year earlier, the strongest since 2023.
- —The two numbers They do not conflict. One covers six months, the other covers three.
- —What drove it Transport, storage and mail rose 12.8%. Wholesale and retail trade rose 11.6%. Canal toll revenue rose 13.6%.
- —The size Second-quarter output came to US$20.07 billion at current prices, according to INEC.
- —The catch Economist Carlos Araúz says the growth has not moved into formal employment at the same pace.
Panama is growing faster than almost anywhere in the region. Where that growth lands is the harder question.
Panama’s economy grew 5.5% in the first half of 2026, the national statistics institute INEC reported on 16 September. The second quarter alone expanded 6.4% year on year. Transport, trade and the canal carried most of the increase.
The Numbers, Sorted Out
Two figures have circulated from the same release, and both are correct.
The 5.5% covers January to June 2026 against the same six months of 2025.
The 6.4% covers April to June alone, again against the year-earlier quarter.
A stronger second quarter pulling up a softer first quarter produces exactly that gap.
Where the Growth Came From
Transport, storage and mail grew 12.8%, the fastest of the large sectors.
Wholesale and retail trade grew 11.6%, which points to domestic demand as well as re-export activity.
Agriculture grew 9.6%, a strong showing for a sector that rarely leads.
Canal toll revenue at current prices rose 13.6%.
The Canal Is Working Again
The waterway moved 9,568 high-draft transits in the first nine months of fiscal 2026.
That splits into 6,888 through the Panamax locks and 2,680 through the Neopanamax locks.
Transits were 6.3% above the year before.
The recovery matters because the drought years of 2023 and 2024 forced Panama to ration daily crossings.
What Did Not Grow
Information and communications contracted 1.8%.
Construction managed 1.3% in the second quarter and 4.5% across the half year.
Construction is the sector that usually carries employment in Panama, so a weak reading there is felt on the ground.
The release does not break out the effect of the closed Cobre Panamá copper mine.
Growth and Wages Are Not the Same Thing
Economist Carlos Araúz argues that sector gains have not translated into formal jobs at the same rate.
Panama has a large informal workforce, and logistics growth does not automatically hire at scale.
That gap is why headline growth of 5.5% can sit alongside public frustration over the cost of living.
The statistics institute publishes output, not household income.
The Regional Comparison
Most of Latin America is growing between 1% and 3% this year.
Panama’s dollarised economy and its position on the canal give it a different engine from its neighbours.
Those same features tie it closely to global shipping volumes and to United States demand.
When world trade slows, Panama feels it earlier than the rest of Central America.
What Is Still Missing
INEC has not published the methodology notes that would show how much of the gain is price rather than volume.
The half-year figure is also subject to revision when the third quarter lands.
No employment series accompanied the growth release.
Those are the numbers that would settle whether the expansion is reaching households.
What to Watch
The third-quarter reading, which tests whether the second quarter was a peak or a trend.
Any decision on the future of the Cobre Panamá mine, which alone moved several points of GDP when it operated.
Canal transit volumes through the dry season.
And the labour market data, which is where the argument about this growth will be settled.
More: Latin America news and analysis, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How fast did Panama grow?
5.5% in the first half of 2026, and 6.4% in the second quarter alone, according to INEC.
Why are two different figures circulating?
They measure different periods. One is the six-month total, the other the second quarter on its own.
What drove the growth?
Transport and storage at 12.8%, wholesale and retail trade at 11.6%, and canal toll revenue at 13.6%.
How big is the economy?
Second-quarter output was US$20.07 billion at current prices.
Did anything shrink?
Information and communications fell 1.8%. Construction grew only 1.3% in the quarter.
Is the growth reaching workers?
Economist Carlos Araúz says formal employment has not expanded in proportion. No employment series came with the release.
Sources: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censo (INEC) release of 16 September 2026, Panama Canal Authority transit data, La Prensa and Forbes Centroamérica reporting.
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