Mexico Manufacturing PMI Rises to 50.3 in September, Just Above 50
MEXICO · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico is Latin America’s second-largest economy and a major exporter of factory goods, above all to the United States. Monthly factory surveys show early how that engine is running.
- —The background S&P Global’s Mexico Manufacturing PMI surveys about 350 factories each month. A reading above 50 means conditions improved on the month before; below 50, they worsened.
- —Why now The index was below the line in August, at 49.8, and factory output has been falling for more than two years.
- —What happened On Thursday 1 October 2026, S&P Global put the September PMI at 50.3, back above 50, but called the improvement only fractional.
- —The numbers New orders rose for a fifth month. Output fell for a 27th month in a row, jobs and purchasing were cut again, and supplier delays were the worst in four years.
- —What it means for you If you buy from or sell to Mexican factories, expect longer deliveries and input costs that are easing but still high; only 3% of firms raised their own prices.
- —Still open Whether the rise in orders turns into output. A separate survey by IMEF, a Mexican finance executives’ body, stood at exactly 50.0.
Mexico’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in September 2026 from 49.8 in August, S&P Global said on Thursday 1 October. The closely watched factory survey is now just above the line that separates improvement from deterioration.
The gain was narrow and owed much to more orders and slower deliveries. Output, employment and purchasing all fell again, and the survey’s economist called the picture “still quite fragile”.
What the September survey shows
The PMI, or purchasing managers’ index, is built from a monthly questionnaire. S&P Global asked around 350 Mexican manufacturers about output, orders, jobs, stocks and deliveries between 10 and 22 September.
New orders rose for a fifth month in a row, although only slightly. Export orders fell for a third month on softer demand from Europe and the US, but by the least in that run.
Output fell again, extending a run of contractions to 27 months. Firms blamed a lack of new projects, shrinking budgets and subdued sales, although the fall was softer than in August.
Employment also declined, with companies cutting temporary and auxiliary staff. Purchasing activity dropped at the fastest pace in five months.
Why a reading above 50 is not a recovery
A PMI above 50 does not measure growth in the economy. It shows that, on balance, more firms reported better conditions than worse ones compared with the month before.
Part of September’s rise came from longer supplier delivery times. The index counts slower deliveries as a plus, because they usually signal busy suppliers; this time they reflected disruption.
Supplier performance worsened by the most in four years, with delays of three days to a month. Firms blamed highway blockades, insecurity and the war in the Middle East.
The underlying picture was “still quite fragile”, said Pollyanna De Lima, economics associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Goods producers “remained cautious and under pressure”, she added.
Prices, confidence and a second survey
Input cost inflation eased further from its recent April high but stayed elevated. Close to 36% of panel members paid more for inputs, citing tariffs, the oil crisis, geopolitical tensions and unfavourable exchange rates.
Selling prices rose slightly faster than in August but stayed mild, with only 3% of firms raising their charges. Business optimism reached its highest level since November 2025, though still below its long-run average.
A separate factory survey by IMEF, the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives, rose to exactly 50.0 in September from 49.9. The two indices use different panels and methods, so their readings are not interchangeable.
What comes next
The next test is the October survey, which S&P Global has not yet dated. It will show whether five months of rising orders lift production, and whether supply bottlenecks ease.
September’s 50.3 does not mean Mexican factories are expanding again. Output and jobs are still shrinking, and the move above 50 owes a good deal to supply problems rather than stronger demand.
The direction has improved, though: orders keep rising, export losses are narrowing and confidence is at its best since November 2025. Demand from the United States will decide how far that goes.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Mexico manufacturing PMI?
It is a monthly survey of about 350 Mexican manufacturers compiled by S&P Global. A reading above 50 means conditions improved on the previous month; below 50, they worsened.
Is Mexican manufacturing growing again?
Only marginally. The September PMI of 50.3 was just above 50, but output fell for a 27th month and employment declined. S&P Global called the improvement fractional.
Why do two Mexican PMIs give different numbers?
S&P Global and IMEF, the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives, run separate surveys with different panels and methods. For September, S&P Global’s index was 50.3 and IMEF’s manufacturing indicator was 50.0.
What is holding Mexican factories back?
Firms cite a lack of new projects, tighter budgets and subdued sales. They also report supply delays caused by highway blockades, insecurity and the war in the Middle East.
Sources: S&P Global Mexico Manufacturing PMI, news release, 1 October 2026. IMEF manufacturing indicator for September 2026 (published 1 October 2026), as reported by The Rio Times on 1 October 2026. All retrieved 2 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
In depth
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.
Read More from The Rio Times