Mexico PMI Hits 50.0 in September as Slide Eases
ECONOMY · MEXICO
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico, Latin America’s second-largest economy and a major factory exporter to the United States.
- —What happened The IMEF Manufacturing Indicator rose to 50.0 points in September 2026 from 49.9 in August, the neutral line, IMEF reported on 1 October.
- —The numbers The non-manufacturing (services) gauge rose to 49.2 from 49.0, still below 50. The size-adjusted factory index slipped 0.6 points to 51.9 (IMEF, 1 Oct 2026).
- —What it means for you Factory activity has stopped shrinking but is not yet growing. Firms selling into Mexico face flat demand rather than a new slump.
- —Still open Whether public investment holds up after a 13% monthly drop in public construction spending in July, and how the USMCA trade review plays out.
Mexico PMI data from IMEF for September show the factory sector reaching the neutral line of 50.0 points, up from 49.9 in August. The figure comes from the IMEF Manufacturing Indicator, published on Thursday 1 October 2026.
IMEF, the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives, compiles its own PMI-style survey of purchasing managers. It is separate from S&P Global’s Mexico Manufacturing PMI.
The IMEF index runs from 0 to 100 points. A reading above 50 signals expansion, below 50 signals contraction.
The institute called the picture “mixed signals”. Activity has stopped deteriorating as fast, but IMEF said there is not enough evidence to confirm a broad recovery.
Mexico PMI Reaches the Neutral Line
The headline factory index gained 0.1 points to 50.0 in September. IMEF said this came after a prolonged period in contraction territory.
The trend-cycle series, which strips out monthly noise, rose 0.3 points to 49.9. That suggests the contraction is losing intensity rather than reversing.
One measure moved the other way. The index adjusted for company size fell 0.6 points to 51.9, though it stays in expansion territory.
Services Stay Below 50
The IMEF Non-Manufacturing Indicator, which tracks services and commerce, rose 0.2 points to 49.2. It remains under the 50 threshold.
Its trend-cycle series fell 0.1 points to 49.0. The size-adjusted index dropped 1.2 points to 48.5, which IMEF read as wider weakness across firms.
What Is Driving the Mexico PMI
IMEF linked the slight improvement to two forces. Public investment in physical works rose between April and June, very probably because of the football World Cup.
The second force is exports of computer equipment. IMEF said these grew 200% through July, but most inputs come from Asia and local value added is low.
That makes the export boom an opportunity and a risk at once. The institute flagged the review of the USMCA, the North American trade agreement, as the main exposure.
Washington’s stance on that pact already shifted in September, as covered in USMCA Review Ends Without Renewal as Washington Starts 2036 Expiry Countdown.
Risks and Stabilisers
Public construction spending fell 13% from June to July, according to IMEF. If that marks a new squeeze on public works, growth could slow for the rest of the year.
Public finances are also under pressure from rigid spending, IMEF said. It warned that rising pension costs raise the chance of a sovereign credit rating cut.
On the stabilising side, IMEF said the Bank of Mexico is expected to hold its interest rate for the rest of the year. Inflation still carries upside risk, mainly from services.
The job market offers little extra support so far, as shown in Unemployment in Mexico Edges Up to 3%, With 55% of Workers Off the Books.
What Is Not Yet Known
One month at 50.0 does not establish a trend. The October Mexico PMI reading from IMEF, due in early November, will show whether factories move into expansion.
It is also unclear whether public investment recovers after July’s drop. IMEF noted the peso has weakened on expectations of tighter US monetary policy, which could narrow the carry trade.
Official industrial production data from INEGI, the national statistics institute, will test the survey signal over the coming weeks.
Sources: IMEF (Mexican Institute of Finance Executives), “Señales mixtas: Indicador IMEF”, IMEF News, 1 October 2026; El Economista, “La economía de México muestra señales mixtas: Indicadores IMEF”, 1 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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