Madagascar and Its Neighbours in the Indian Ocean

MADAGASCAR · INDIAN OCEAN

Madagascar dwarfs its island neighbours in people but not in income. Here is who sits next door, which regional clubs bind them and what is still disputed.

Madagascar neighbours range from tiny island states to Mozambique across the water, and Madagascar is far larger than all of them. It covers 587,295 square kilometres, about 290 times the area of Mauritius.

The island has no land border, so every neighbour is reached by sea or by air. This guide sets out who they are, which regional clubs bind them and what is still disputed in October 2026.

More coverage sits on the Rio Times Eastern Africa page and in the Rio Times guide Madagascar Explained. Euro conversions use EUR 0.89394 per US$1, the open.er-api.com rate of 27 October 2026.

Madagascar Neighbours at a Glance

Madagascar neighbours fall into three groups: small Indian Ocean island states, the African mainland across the Mozambique Channel, and French territories. Its population was 31.96 million in 2024, according to World Bank data.

• Comoros: an island nation north-west of Madagascar with 866,628 people and a US$1.61 billion economy in 2024.
• Mauritius: an island republic with 1,245,779 people and a US$14.94 billion economy in 2024, roughly US$11,990 per person.
• Seychelles: an island republic with 121,354 people and a US$2.23 billion economy in 2024, roughly US$18,360 per person.
• Mozambique: the only mainland neighbour, with 34.63 million people and a US$22.75 billion economy in 2024.
• France: the former colonial power, which governs Réunion and Mayotte and holds four disputed islands in the Mozambique Channel.

Madagascar has about 93% of the combined population of Comoros, Mauritius, Seychelles and itself, but only about 48% of their combined output. Its output was about US$550 per person in 2024, against US$11,990 in Mauritius.

Mauritius therefore earns about 22 times more per person than Madagascar. These ratios are calculations from World Bank figures for 2024.

Who Governs Madagascar Today

Colonel Michaël Randrianirina took power after the military seized control on 14 October 2025, following weeks of protests. The African Union suspended Madagascar the next day, on Wednesday, 15 October 2025.

The African Union’s Peace and Security Council, its main security body, ordered the suspension “until constitutional order is restored”. It asked for a civilian-led transition and early elections that are free, fair, credible and transparent.

Randrianirina styles himself President of the Refondation, meaning the refounding, of the Republic of Madagascar. Mamitiana Rajaonarison became prime minister on 15 March 2026, when the current 30 minister government was formed.

Alice N’Diaye is foreign minister in that government. Madagascar’s authorities have set a 24 month period for the Refondation, with a presidential election planned for late 2027.

The Rio Times covers the political background in its guide Madagascar Explained. Regional bodies treat the transition as a matter for dialogue rather than sanctions, as the sections below show.

The Island Neighbours in the Indian Ocean

Comoros lies north-west of Madagascar, and direct air links between the two were interrupted for several years. Madagascar Airlines restarted the Antananarivo, Mahajanga and Moroni route on Thursday, 30 July 2026.

Flights now run on Thursdays and Sundays, according to Malagasy officials. A Comorian carrier, Royal Air, began its own Moroni to Mahajanga flights days later.

Mauritius is a rich, stable island republic whose 2024 output per person was about 22 times Madagascar’s. Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam represented it at the Indian Ocean Commission summit in Antananarivo on Thursday, 24 April 2025.

Mauritius had 1,245,779 people in 2024, fewer than one in twenty five Malagasy. For the Mauritian side of the story, read the Rio Times guide Mauritius Explained.

Seychelles has the highest income per person of the Commission’s sovereign members, at roughly US$18,360 in 2024. It joined the Indian Ocean Rim Association in 2011, fourteen years after Madagascar did in 1997.

France takes part in the Commission through Réunion, a French overseas department. French President Emmanuel Macron attended the Antananarivo summit of 24 April 2025.

Mozambique and the Channel Between

Mozambique is Madagascar’s only mainland neighbour, across the Mozambique Channel. In 2024 it had 34.63 million people and a US$22.75 billion economy, a little larger than Madagascar’s by both measures.

Both countries belong to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and to the Indian Ocean Rim Association, which both joined in 1997. Their income per person is similar, at roughly US$660 in Mozambique and US$550 in Madagascar.

Former Mozambican President Joaquim Chissano was SADC envoy to Madagascar in December 2025 and joined its Panel of Elders in August 2026. The Panel supports mediation, conflict prevention and preventive diplomacy, the August 2026 communique says.

Two cyclones, Fytia and Gezani, struck Madagascar in February 2026. At Madagascar’s request, France sent 20 tonnes of humanitarian cargo and nearly 50 experts afterwards.

The Regional Clubs and Where Madagascar Stands

The Indian Ocean Commission has five members: Comoros, France for Réunion, Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles. Its fifth summit met in Antananarivo on 24 April 2025, ten years after the previous one in Moroni in 2014.

Observers at that summit included the European Union, the United Nations, China, India, Japan and South Korea. Food security was the lead theme, with a round table and an economic forum.

SADC admitted Madagascar on 17 and 18 August 2005 at its summit in Gaborone, Botswana. On 7 November 2025 SADC noted Madagascar’s decision not to chair, and South Africa served as interim chair until August 2026.

At the Durban summit on Monday, 17 August 2026, Cyril Ramaphosa was elected SADC chair and Zambia’s president became incoming chair. The summit welcomed engagement through the SADC Panel of Elders, which the December 2025 communique said former Malawian President Joyce Banda chairs.

The communique urged Madagascar’s stakeholders to keep the relative calm and settle grievances through dialogue. SADC had asked on 17 December 2025 for a readiness report and draft roadmap by 28 February 2026.

The African Union’s suspension is the harder penalty, since it bars Madagascar from all activities of the Union. Madagascar also sits in the Indian Ocean Rim Association, a 23 member group that includes India, Australia, South Africa and France.

The Scattered Islands Dispute With France

France holds four small islands in the Mozambique Channel that Madagascar claims: Glorieuses, Europa, Juan de Nova and Bassas da India. Malagasy officials call them the Scattered Islands, or Îles Éparses, and say they belong to Madagascar.

A UN General Assembly resolution of 12 December 1979 described them as arbitrarily separated from Madagascar. It invited France to start talks on their reintegration without further delay.

A joint commission met in Antananarivo on 18 November 2019 and in Paris on Monday, 30 June 2025. Both rounds recorded a disagreement over sovereignty and produced no notable progress.

Madagascar asks for restitution, compensation for lost income, fishing access and a role for its scientists. It rejects co-management until France recognises its sovereignty.

A third round is planned in Madagascar, and no date had been published in the sources checked. The joint statement of Macron and Randrianirina on 24 February 2026 did not mention the islands.

France, Russia and the Wider Ring of Partners

Randrianirina visited Paris from 23 to 25 February 2026 and met Macron on Tuesday, 24 February. Their joint statement set three priorities: the political relationship, economic support and security and defence cooperation.

France said it had launched cooperation projects worth nearly EUR 70 million (about US$78 million) since October 2025. They include the Volobe hydroelectric dam, blue economy work and more port capacity at Antsiranana.

The joint statement ties the renewed partnership to the 24 month period that Malagasy authorities set for the Refondation. It also promises continued security and defence cooperation, respecting both states’ sovereignty.

The Commission’s own observers add China, India, Japan and South Korea to that list. The Rio Times follows the mining and trade side in Madagascar vanilla and nickel economy and the gold smuggling crackdown.

Trade, Money and Ports Across the Water

The World Bank puts poverty at 66.5% in 2025 and cites the transition and two cyclones in early 2026. Inflation reached 8.6% in June 2026, and the central bank lifted its policy rate to 12.5% in August.

The International Monetary Fund projects growth of 3.6% and inflation of 8.3% for Madagascar in 2026. Its outstanding loans to Madagascar stood at SDR 620.19 million on 31 March 2026, in the Fund’s own accounting unit.

Exports of nickel, vanilla and apparel stayed subdued in 2026, the World Bank adds, while fuel imports rose. It says this keeps the current account deficit large.

Toamasina handles sea trade on the east coast, and Antsiranana in the north is slated for more port capacity. The Comoros route adds an air link; see Kenyan firm eyes Comoros geothermal.

Where Madagascar Leads and Where It Follows

• It leads on size: about 93% of the people of the four sovereign Commission members live in Madagascar.
• It leads on hosting: it held the Commission summit on 24 April 2025, the first in ten years.
• It follows on income: roughly US$550 per person in 2024, against US$11,990 in Mauritius and US$18,360 in Seychelles.
• It follows on mediation: SADC’s Panel of Elders, which includes former Mozambican and Botswanan presidents, shapes the transition.
• It follows on the islands: France holds the four islands, and the talks have moved slowly since 2019.

Madagascar’s weight in the region is therefore demographic and geographic rather than financial. Its size gives it a voice in regional bodies, but income per person remains far below its island neighbours.

What It Means for US Readers

The US Census Bureau shows a US goods trade deficit with Madagascar of US$635.2 million in 2025. US exports were US$59.9 million and imports US$695.1 million; from January to August 2026 they were US$24.1 million and US$362.3 million.

On 4 December 2025 the US State Department set Madagascar at Level 2, exercise increased caution. It also names road corridors where it advises reconsidering travel because of crime; check each neighbour’s advisory separately.

For investors, the neighbourhood matters because regional bodies, not Washington, are mediating Madagascar’s transition. A lifted African Union suspension or a fixed election date would be the clearest signals that risk is falling.

The US tariff on Madagascar goods and the status of AGOA, the African Growth and Opportunity Act, could not be confirmed. Check US Trade Representative and Customs notices before signing any import contract.

What Is Not Known

• Whether the African Union has lifted or reviewed its suspension of Madagascar after its decision of 15 October 2025.
• The date of a presidential election, which the authorities say is planned for late 2027.
• Whether the third round of talks with France over the Scattered Islands has a date or has already met.
• The current US tariff rate on Madagascar goods and the present status of the African Growth and Opportunity Act for Madagascar.
• The value of trade between Madagascar and the other Commission members, which the sources checked do not publish.
• Whether the Comoros route keeps its Thursday and Sunday schedule beyond its first weeks.

Every claim that a primary source did not confirm was deleted. This page will be rewritten, not patched, when any of these points is settled.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who runs Madagascar in October 2026?

Colonel Michaël Randrianirina has led Madagascar since the military seized power on 14 October 2025. Mamitiana Rajaonarison has been prime minister since 15 March 2026.

Does Madagascar share a border with any country?

No, Madagascar is an island with no land border. Its nearest mainland neighbour is Mozambique, across the Mozambique Channel.

Who are Madagascar’s closest neighbours?

Comoros, Mauritius, Seychelles and French-run Réunion lie in the Indian Ocean, and Mozambique lies across the channel. Together with France, the island states form the Indian Ocean Commission.

What is the Indian Ocean Commission?

It is a five member regional body: Comoros, France for Réunion, Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles. Its fifth summit met in Antananarivo on 24 April 2025.

Is Madagascar still suspended from the African Union?

The African Union suspended Madagascar on 15 October 2025 until constitutional order is restored. No decision lifting it was found as of 27 October 2026.

Which islands do France and Madagascar dispute?

Madagascar claims Glorieuses, Europa, Juan de Nova and Bassas da India, which France holds in the Mozambique Channel. Joint talks met in 2019 and 2025 without agreement on sovereignty.

Are there flights between Madagascar and Comoros?

Yes, Madagascar Airlines restarted the Antananarivo, Mahajanga and Moroni route on 30 July 2026, with flights on Thursdays and Sundays. Check the airline before booking.

Sources: World Bank (population, 2024); World Bank (GDP, 2024); World Bank (surface area, 2023); World Bank Madagascar overview; IMF Madagascar page; US Census Bureau (trade with Madagascar); US State Department (travel advisory); African Union Peace and Security Council (15 October 2025); SADC (Madagascar); SADC (46th Summit communique, 17 August 2026); SADC (7 November 2025); SADC (17 December 2025); Indian Ocean Commission (fifth summit communique, 24 April 2025); Indian Ocean Rim Association (member states); Presidency of France (joint statement, 24 February 2026); Government of Madagascar (members of the government); UN General Assembly (resolution 34/91, 12 December 1979); open.er-api.com (exchange rates, 27 October 2026) (all accessed 26 and 27 October 2026).

Part of our ongoing coverage

Africa: The New Scramble — the great-power contest over the continent.

More from Eastern Africa