Serbia Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026
SERBIA · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —Result The Student List, a movement born in the 2024 protests, won about 53.4% and a projected 140 of 250 seats, with 97.6% of polling stations counted.
- —Loser United Serbia, the list of Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), took about 39.7% and a projected 103 seats.
- —Turnout About 68.8% of voters took part, roughly ten points more than in 2023.
- —Acting head of state Ana Brnabić, the parliamentary speaker, has been acting president since Vučić resigned in late September.
- —Next step Parliament must meet, elect a government and an election for president must be held within about three months.
- —Prediction markets Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC (the federal derivatives regulator), prices a Student-backed candidate at 69% for the next presidential election (27 October, 1:35 a.m. ET).
This story is part of our coverage of the Serbia election 2026. The live odds, the polls and every report on the 25 October vote are in our Serbia election dossier.
Who Holds Power Today
Serbia’s government is in transition. The Student List, a movement of protest candidates led by cardiologist Ilija Srdanović, has won a parliamentary majority, while Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is on its way out after 14 years.
This guide is part of The Rio Times series on European politics. See also our guides to Spain and Germany’s AfD debate.
For US readers, this matters because Serbia is a candidate for European Union membership, a buyer of Russian energy and a country under American sanctions pressure. A change of government in Belgrade could shift all three at once.
How the System Works
Serbia is a parliamentary republic. The National Assembly, a single chamber with 250 seats, elects the government, and a party needs 126 seats for a majority.
The president is head of state and is elected directly for five years. The prime minister is head of government and runs daily policy, which is why Vučić resigned the presidency to seek that post.
The 25 October Election
Voters went to the polls on Sunday 25 October in a snap election. The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), the state body that counts the vote, reported the Student List on about 53.4% with 97.6% of polling stations counted on 26 October.
United Serbia, the list led by Vučić’s SNS, had about 39.7%. The projected seat split is 140 for the Student List, 103 for United Serbia and 7 for minority parties, so the students need no coalition partner.
A Defeat Conceded
Vučić conceded defeat on election night, saying a sample-based projection made clear his list had lost. Celebrations followed in Belgrade and other cities.
Turnout was about 68.8%, which is roughly ten points above the 2023 parliamentary election. Figures are preliminary until RIK publishes final results and the new Assembly is formally constituted.
Vučić, Brnabić and the Presidency
Vučić resigned as president in late September to run as SNS candidate for prime minister. Under the constitution the speaker of parliament, Ana Brnabić of the SNS, took over as acting president.
Under the constitution a presidential election must be held within three months, so by about late December. Until then the head of state is a Vučić ally, while the parliamentary majority belongs to his opponents.
Where the Students Came From
The movement grew from protests after a concrete canopy fell at the railway station in Novi Sad on 1 November 2024, killing 16 people. Students blamed corruption and weak oversight for the disaster and demanded accountability.
The Student List is largely leaderless and has not named its candidate for prime minister. Its figurehead Srdanović is a professor at the Medical Faculty of the University of Novi Sad.
Serbia, the EU, Russia and Washington
Serbia has been a candidate for EU membership for years but has not joined Western sanctions on Russia. The Student List has stressed independent courts and anti-corruption reform, which are core EU demands, but has said little detail about foreign policy.
Serbia does not recognise Kosovo, which declared independence in 2008, and the movement has not signalled a change. Serbia is not a NATO member and relies on Russian gas.
Energy and the Economy
The central energy issue is NIS, Serbia’s national oil company, whose majority owner is Russia’s Gazprom Neft, an oil producer. The US Treasury sanctioned it in October 2025, and a US licence for talks on selling the 56.15% Russian-held stake to Hungary’s MOL, an oil and gas group, runs to 30 October 2026.
Whoever runs the new government inherits that deal and the refinery at Pančevo, Serbia’s only one. The outcome affects fuel supply and the country’s standing with the US.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the United States by the CFTC (the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal derivatives regulator), prices a Student-backed candidate at 69% to win Serbia’s next presidential election. An SNS-backed candidate is priced at 1%, and 6,593 contracts have traded.
These prices are bets, not polls, and they were read on 27 October at 1:35 a.m. ET. They show what traders expect, not what any government has promised.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
For investors, the question is policy continuity. Serbia is a manufacturing and logistics base for European supply chains, and a government with a clear majority could speed up legal and anti-corruption reforms that foreign companies have wanted.
For security and travel, no disruption to flights or borders has been announced, and the transfer of power is so far peaceful. US readers should watch the NIS sanctions decision and whether Belgrade moves closer to the EU or keeps its balancing act between Brussels and Moscow.
What Is Not Known
It is not yet known who will be prime minister or which ministers will lead the police and security services. The Student List has not named a candidate, and it is unclear whether a movement with no single leader can hold together in office.
Final RIK figures, any complaints and the date of the Assembly’s first session are not yet confirmed. Nor is it known whether Vučić will take any formal role or whether the SNS will contest the presidency again.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Serbia’s October 2026 election?
The Student List won about 53.4% and a projected 140 of 250 seats, according to preliminary Republic Electoral Commission figures. Vučić’s United Serbia list took about 39.7%.
Who is Serbia’s head of state now?
Ana Brnabić, the parliamentary speaker, has been acting president since Vučić resigned in late September. A presidential election must be held within three months of his resignation.
How many seats are needed to govern?
The National Assembly has 250 seats, so a majority needs 126. The Student List is projected to hold about 140.
Who will be Serbia’s next prime minister?
That is not yet known. The Student List has not named a candidate, and parliament must first convene and vote on a government.
What sparked the student movement?
The collapse of a station canopy in Novi Sad on 1 November 2024 killed 16 people. Protests over corruption and accountability followed.
Sources: Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia; National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia; Government of Serbia; President of the Republic of Serbia; US Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error