Madagascar Explained: Who Rules After the 2025 Takeover and What Comes Next
GUIDES · MADAGASCAR
Key Facts
- —Capital Antananarivo, in the central highlands of the world’s fourth-largest island, about 400 kilometres off south-east Africa. Madagascar is one of the poorest countries on earth and home to wildlife found nowhere else.
- —Population 32.7 million in 2025, growing about 2.4 percent a year, according to World Bank data. Only about a third live in towns and cities.
- —Currency The ariary. It traded at about 4,403 ariary to the US dollar on 29 September 2026.
- —Language Malagasy and French are the official languages. Malagasy is spoken across the island; French is widely used in business and government.
- —GDP About US$19.6 billion in 2025, or roughly US$600 per person, with growth of 3.0 percent that year (World Bank).
- —Government A military-led transition since October 2025, headed by Colonel Michael Randrianirina. A new constitution and a presidential election are planned for 2027.
Madagascar explained for readers who know it mainly for lemurs and vanilla. Here is who has run the island since the 2025 takeover, how its 32.7 million people live, and which dates decide what comes next.
Madagascar is the world’s fourth-largest island, one of its poorest countries, and since October 2025 it has been run by an army colonel. What happens there matters to anyone who buys vanilla, invests in battery metals or watches Russia and France compete in the Indian Ocean.
What kind of country is this?
Madagascar lies about 400 kilometres off Mozambique, across the Mozambique Channel. The island covers roughly 590,000 square kilometres, a little more than France. It became independent from France on 26 June 1960 and is divided into 23 regions.
Its people are not simply African. The first settlers were Austronesians who sailed from what is now Indonesia, probably between 500 and 700 CE. Bantu-speaking groups from the African mainland followed around the ninth century. That double heritage still shows in the language and culture, which blend Asian and African roots.
The population reached 32.7 million in 2025 and grows by about 2.4 percent a year, World Bank data show. Roughly one person in three lives in an urban area. Life expectancy at birth was 63.8 years in 2024.
Poverty is the defining social fact. The World Bank estimates that 66.5 percent of Malagasy were poor in 2025. Only 42.5 percent of the population had access to electricity in 2024, and chronic power and water cuts are what brought people onto the streets in 2025.
A natural world found nowhere else
Madagascar has been isolated for so long that around 90 percent of its plant and animal species are endemic, a figure widely cited by scientists. Lemurs are the best-known example. They live in the wild only here.
They are also in trouble. In July 2020 the International Union for Conservation of Nature found that 103 of the 107 surviving lemur species were threatened, and 33 were critically endangered. It named slash-and-burn farming and logging for charcoal and firewood as the main causes.
Forest covered about 21 percent of the land in 2023, according to World Bank data. The island also sits in the path of Indian Ocean cyclones, which strike between November and April. In early 2026 Cyclone Fytia hit at the end of January, and Cyclone Gezani devastated the port city of Toamasina on 10 February, killing dozens of people.
Who runs Madagascar and how
Madagascar is run by Colonel Michael Randrianirina, whose formal title is President of the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar. He was sworn in on 17 October 2025, after the High Constitutional Court asked him to carry out the duties of head of state.
The path to that moment began on 25 September 2025. Young people organised under a “Gen Z” banner took to the streets over power and water cuts. At least 22 people were killed and more than 100 injured, according to UN figures cited by local media.
On 11 and 12 October, soldiers of CAPSAT, an elite army unit that Randrianirina commanded, joined the protesters. President Andry Rajoelina left the country. The National Assembly then impeached him by 130 votes, despite his decree dissolving it.
There is an irony here. CAPSAT also played a major role in the 2009 mutiny that first brought Rajoelina to power. The US State Department notes that Madagascar has a history of irregular transfers of power.
Who the colonel is
Randrianirina was born in 1974 in the Androy region of the dry far south. He served as governor of Androy from 2016 to 2018. In November 2023 he was arrested on accusations of inciting mutiny, and was released in February 2024 with a suspended sentence.
He rejects the word coup. He says power was handed to him legally by the constitutional court. The African Union disagreed and suspended Madagascar on 15 October 2025, until constitutional order is restored. The Southern African Development Community chose engagement instead, sending a Panel of Elders led by former Malawian president Joyce Banda.
How the transition works
The presidency governs alongside a council of army, gendarmerie and police officers. The National Assembly survived the takeover; the Senate was suspended. A prime minister runs the day-to-day government.
The first civilian prime minister, businessman Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo, was appointed on 20 October 2025. Gen Z activists objected to the choice from the start. On 9 March 2026 Randrianirina dismissed him and dissolved the entire government without giving a reason.
His replacement, named on 15 March 2026, is Mamitiana Rajaonarison. He had led SAMIFIN, the financial intelligence unit that tracks money laundering, since 2021, and is a former senior gendarmerie officer. Days later the president ordered polygraph tests for prospective ministers.
The official roadmap, published on 28 February 2026, sets out a 24-month transition. It runs through a national consultation led by the churches, a new constitution for a “Fifth Republic”, a referendum and then a presidential election.
How the economy works
The economy is small for the size of the country. Output was about US$19.6 billion in 2025, roughly US$600 per person, and grew 3.0 percent that year. The World Bank notes that growth of about 3 percent a year since the 2010s has been too slow to cut poverty, given how fast the population rises.
Export earnings lean heavily on vanilla and on nickel and cobalt from the Ambatovy mine near Toamasina. Both have had a hard run. Vanilla prices have collapsed, and Ambatovy stopped again after Cyclone Gezani before restarting on 11 June 2026. The details are in the Rio Times guide Madagascar Economy Reels as Vanilla Collapses and Ambatovy Halts Again.
Prices are rising again. Inflation eased to 6.8 percent in March 2026, then climbed to 8.6 percent in June on food and energy costs, according to the World Bank. The central bank responded in August by raising its policy rate by half a point to 12.5 percent.
Energy is the chronic weak point. The state utility, Jirama, supplies both power and water, and its failures sparked the 2025 protests. In April 2026 the cabinet declared a 15-day national energy emergency over fuel shortages linked to conflict in the Middle East.
The transition government is also trying to open up mining. On 30 January 2026 it lifted a 16-year moratorium on new mining permits, except for gold. Donors remain central: the World Bank alone had a US$4.5 billion portfolio in Madagascar as of September 2026.
What is happening right now
As of 23 September 2026, Madagascar is nearing the end of its first year of military-led rule. The central questions are the election calendar, public safety and whom the island leans on abroad.
The calendar has already shifted once. In May 2026 the electoral commission set a constitutional referendum for June 2027 and a presidential election for October 2027. In August, at a regional summit in Durban, Randrianirina presented a referendum in July 2027, with the presidential vote before the end of that year.
The church-led national consultation was due to start in August 2026. Reports that month said it still had no official theme or detailed timetable. Gen Z activists have complained about the delays.
Courts have begun dealing with the 2025 crackdown. At the start of September 2026, former Senate president Richard Ravalomanana was sentenced to 10 years of hard labour for complicity in murder. He denies the charges and said he would appeal.
A wave of kidnappings has shaken the capital. More than 200 people were kidnapped or went missing in the seven months to early August, the Institute for Security Studies reported. Police recovered 175, six were found dead and 19 were still missing. Troops now patrol the streets.
Abroad, Randrianirina has spread his bets. He met Vladimir Putin in Moscow in February 2026, his first trip outside Africa, and French President Emmanuel Macron days later. Relations with France soured in late April, when Madagascar expelled a French embassy agent and detained a former French soldier over an alleged plot. France called the accusations “not only unfounded, but also incomprehensible.”
The presidency is also concentrating control. On 12 September 2026 the Council of Ministers ruled that every private jet flight needs approval from the president or the prime minister. The next day, officers seized about 5.7 kilograms of gold at Ivato airport outside the capital.
What to watch
14 to 17 October 2026. The first anniversary of the takeover and of the colonel’s swearing-in. It is a natural rallying point for supporters and for disappointed Gen Z activists alike.
November 2026 to April 2027. Cyclone season. After Fytia and Gezani, any major storm would strain a government already rebuilding Toamasina.
Inflation and the policy rate. Inflation was 8.6 percent in June. Further readings will show whether the August rate rise to 12.5 percent is enough.
The consultation timetable. Without a published schedule for the national consultation, a 2027 referendum becomes harder to hold on time.
June or July 2027. The constitutional referendum, on the current plans. The presidential election is due in October 2027 or at least before the year ends. In December 2025 Randrianirina said he was “not thinking about being a candidate at this time.”
What this means for foreigners
Visitors need a visa. According to the US State Department, travellers can apply in advance through a Madagascar embassy or get one on arrival, and tourist visas are valid for 90 days.
Washington rates Madagascar at Level 2, “exercise increased caution”, in an advisory issued on 5 December 2025. It names crime, unrest and health as the main risks. Six areas, mostly in the south and west, carry a stricter Level 3 warning because of violent crime and kidnapping.
Power cuts are part of daily life, even in Antananarivo. Anyone living or working on the island should plan for backup power and water. Medical facilities are severely limited, the State Department warns.
For investors, the rules can change quickly. Decisions are concentrated in the presidency, as the private jet rule shows, and a new constitution is still being drafted. Mining permits have reopened, but anyone signing long-term contracts should expect the legal framework to move before the 2027 votes.
French goes a long way in business and administration, and it is an official language alongside Malagasy. English is far less common outside tourism.
Connected Coverage
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Sources: Population, output, poverty, electricity and forest data from the World Bank; lemur status from the IUCN Red List; travel rules from the US State Department; the transition timetable from Madagascar’s electoral commission and presidency as reported by Africanews and Benin Web TV. All accessed 23 September 2026.
- World Bank — Madagascar overview: inflation, policy rate, poverty and portfolio
- World Bank Open Data — population, GDP, electricity access, forest area
- IUCN — lemur Red List update, July 2020
- US State Department — Madagascar travel advisory and entry rules
- Amani Africa — African Union and SADC positions on Madagascar
- Africanews — electoral commission timetable for 2027
- Institute for Security Studies — kidnappings in Madagascar
What Is Not Known
The final election dates. The electoral commission and the presidency have given different months for the referendum, and the presidential date depends on it. Until the consultation has a timetable, every 2027 date is provisional.
Whether Randrianirina will stand. He has said he is not thinking about it “at this time”, and nothing in the roadmap rules him in or out.
Where Madagascar stands with the African Union. The October 2025 suspension was tied to a return to constitutional order, and a formal decision on restoring full membership has not been clearly set out.
Who is behind the kidnappings. Some blame the opposition and some point at Rajoelina’s camp. The Institute for Security Studies noted there is no evidence linking Rajoelina to any of them.
How deep the Russian relationship runs. Media reports have described arms deliveries and security ties, but neither government has published the terms of any military cooperation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the leader of Madagascar in 2026?
Colonel Michael Randrianirina, sworn in on 17 October 2025 as President of the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar. The prime minister since 15 March 2026 is Mamitiana Rajaonarison, a former head of the financial intelligence unit.
Was there a coup in Madagascar?
In October 2025 the elite CAPSAT army unit joined weeks of youth-led protests, President Andry Rajoelina left the country and the military took power. Randrianirina rejects the word coup, but the African Union suspended Madagascar on 15 October 2025.
When is the next election in Madagascar?
A constitutional referendum is planned for June or July 2027, followed by a presidential election in October 2027 or at least before the end of that year. The dates have already moved once and remain provisional.
What languages are spoken in Madagascar?
Malagasy and French are the official languages. Malagasy is spoken across the island, while French is widely used in business and government. English is far less common outside tourism.
Is Madagascar safe to visit in 2026?
The US State Department rates it Level 2, exercise increased caution, citing crime, unrest and health, with a stricter Level 3 for six areas mostly in the south and west. A wave of kidnappings hit the capital area in 2026, and cyclones strike between November and April.
How poor is Madagascar?
Very poor. Output was roughly US$600 per person in 2025, the World Bank estimates that 66.5 percent of people were poor that year, and only 42.5 percent had access to electricity in 2024.
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