Lula Gains Ground as Trade Dispute with Trump Boosts His Standing at Home

Brazil’s Genial/Quaest poll shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s approval rising to 46 percent in mid-August, the highest since January.

Disapproval slipped to 51 percent, down from 53 percent in July. The survey interviewed 2,004 Brazilians nationwide, with a two-point margin of error.

Two forces explain this rebound. First, pressure from food prices eased. Sixty percent of respondents said prices rose, down from 76 percent in July, while 18 percent reported falling prices, more than double the previous month.

Expectations for the next year also improved, with 40 percent expecting the economy to strengthen, up from 35 percent. Second, a high-profile trade clash with Washington shifted opinion.

U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian exports, with exemptions for aircraft, orange juice, and energy. The White House declared it a national emergency.

Brazil’s Foreign Ministry challenged the move at the World Trade Organization, which accepted consultations, though Washington argues national security makes the measure non-negotiable.

The tariff directly affects about 36 percent of Brazil’s exports to the United States. Still, the U.S. accounts for just 12 percent of Brazil’s foreign sales, compared with 28 percent to China, which cushions the national impact.

Even so, the government promised relief to exporters in vulnerable sectors. Public opinion strongly backed Lula’s posture. Seventy-one percent of Brazilians said Trump was wrong to impose tariffs, while 48 percent said Lula and his party handled the situation best.

Only 28 percent sided with Jair Bolsonaro and allies. Nearly half of respondents believe Lula acted in defense of Brazil, while 41 percent saw personal promotion.

The poll also highlighted skepticism toward Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo. Sixty-nine percent said he defends personal or family interests, with just 23 percent saying he defends Brazil.

Eduardo has lived in the United States and lobbied in Washington against Lula’s government. The story behind the numbers is straightforward.

Many Brazilians feel grocery bills easing, while most resent tariffs seen as politically motivated. By standing firm and channeling the mood toward negotiation rather than retaliation, Lula appears to have tapped into a public demand for sovereignty and stability.

His approval ratings rose not only because conditions improved, but also because he positioned himself as the defender of national dignity in a moment of external pressure.