DR CONGO · POLITICS
Key Facts
- The country Congo is the world’s top cobalt miner, and rebels hold large parts of its east.
- What happened Ex-president Joseph Kabila, now a rebel leader, links his fight to a return of Mobutu-era rule.
- Why it matters US sanctions now hit Kabila and Rwanda’s defense ministry for backing a rebel group that holds eastern cities.
- What it means for you Congo mined an estimated 73% of the world’s cobalt in 2025, so US buyers watch the war.
- Still open Whether any talks begin, how the government answers, and whether Congo’s Senate passes the referendum law.
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives a 5.2% chance that President Félix Tshisekedi leaves office by 31 December 2026 (volume US$21,472; as of 4:15 a.m. ET on 30 October 2026).
Joseph Kabila, Congo’s president from 2001 to 2019 and now head of a rebel movement in the east, says he returned to the fight because the problems of the Mobutu era have come back. He makes the case in an English-language video interview that appeared online on Tuesday 27 or Wednesday 28 October 2026.
The US Treasury sanctioned Kabila on Thursday 30 April 2026 for backing the M23 rebel group, and on Wednesday 28 October it sanctioned Rwanda’s Ministry of Defence, which it says supports the rebels with troops. Congo also mined an estimated 73% of the world’s cobalt in 2025, so the war matters to US battery makers.
In Plain English
The FRN, or Front for the Refoundation of the Nation, is the movement Kabila heads, announced in Goma on Monday 12 October as successor to the Congo River Alliance, or AFC. M23, the March 23 Movement, is the armed group whose political arm is the AFC, and it captured the eastern cities of Goma and Bukavu in 2025.
Mobutu Sese Seko was the dictator who ruled Congo, then called Zaire, from 1965 until a rebellion led by Kabila’s father took power in May 1997. The Washington Accords are the US-brokered peace deal signed by the presidents of Congo and Rwanda on Thursday 4 December 2025.
What Kabila Said
Kabila likens today’s Congo to the conditions under which Congolese opposed Mobutu in the 1990s, and he accuses President Félix Tshisekedi of dictatorship. He asks whether Congo needs “an election or a revolution” and says a revolution need not mean weapons.
He doubts a vote will happen in 2028, calls Tshisekedi’s planned national dialogue a “monologue” and asks for an independent body to run talks. He calls the Qatar-mediated Doha talks “one of the options on the table” while accusing Kinshasa, Congo’s capital, of breaking promises on prisoner releases and the ceasefire.
He says drone attacks continue, including one in Goma that he says was aimed at him, and he denies that the front plans to split Congo. He wants all foreign troops to leave, on a timetable still to be agreed.
How Kinshasa Has Answered
The High Military Court in Kinshasa sentenced Kabila to death in absentia on Tuesday 30 September 2025 for treason and war crimes. Government spokesman Patrick Muyaya, the communications minister, wrote in French on Friday 9 October that Kabila is “a man of the past” who “has nothing else to offer but chaos”.
Tshisekedi, president since 2019, told lawmakers of his majority on Saturday 24 October that he does not see how he could stay in power in 2028 if his goals are met and voters reject a new constitution. The National Assembly passed a referendum law the day before, and the Senate must still give it a second reading.
The Coalition Article 64, an opposition platform whose presidium includes former provincial governor Moïse Katumbi and past presidential candidate Martin Fayulu, said on Tuesday 27 October after a meeting in Rome that it wants to meet both Tshisekedi and Kabila. It says there is no military solution.
Why It Matters
The front’s launch is covered in the earlier launch report and explainer on what the front means for peace, and what is new is Kabila’s own account of why he took up the fight. The Treasury said on 30 April that Kabila financed the AFC and urged soldiers to defect.
On 28 October Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Rwanda “must halt its support for M23 and withdraw its troops from eastern DRC”. He tied the action to the Washington Accords, which also set a regional economic framework for minerals supply chains.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, traders put the chance that Tshisekedi ceases to be president by 31 December 2026 at 5.2%, on volume of US$21,472 as of 4:15 a.m. ET on 30 October 2026. The market is small and pays out on any removal, resignation or detention of the president.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
US persons are generally barred from dealing in Kabila’s property, and the same now applies to Rwanda’s Ministry of Defence and the lender Zigama. Buyers of eastern Congo gold or coltan should check their supply, since the Treasury ties rebel-held mines to Rwanda’s supply chains.
The State Department tells travellers to reconsider travel to Congo and lists North Kivu and Ituri at Level 4: Do Not Travel. The US relied on imports for an estimated 79% of its cobalt in 2025, so a longer war can reach battery and electronics supply chains.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Kinshasa will answer the interview formally, or whether the FRN will meet the Coalition Article 64. The exact release time of the video is unconfirmed, since reports put it a day apart.
Kabila’s claim that a drone strike in Goma targeted him has not been independently confirmed, and he gave no timetable for the troop withdrawal. Whether Rwanda pulls back and whether the Senate passes the referendum law are also open.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Joseph Kabila say in his interview?
Kabila says he returned to the fight because the problems of the Mobutu era are back, and he accuses President Tshisekedi of dictatorship. He asks whether Congo needs “an election or a revolution” and says a revolution need not mean weapons.
Why is Joseph Kabila under US sanctions?
The US Treasury sanctioned Kabila on 30 April 2026 for supporting the M23 rebel group and its political coalition, the AFC. Americans are generally barred from dealing in his property.
Was Joseph Kabila sentenced to death?
Yes, in absentia. The High Military Court in Kinshasa sentenced him on 30 September 2025 for treason and war crimes, in a trial he did not attend.
What is the Doha process?
Doha is the Qatar-facilitated track between Kinshasa and the AFC and M23 rebels, and the UN Security Council welcomed its framework, signed on 15 November 2025. Kabila calls it “one of the options on the table”.
Sources: Kabila video interview, released 27 or 28 October 2026; US Treasury press release on sanctions on Rwanda’s Ministry of Defence, 28 October 2026; US Treasury press release on sanctions on Joseph Kabila, 30 April 2026; UN Security Council resolution 2808, 19 December 2025; US State Department travel advisory for DR Congo; US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, cobalt; Congressional Research Service report RL31080 on Congo’s history.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief