GUATEMALA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- The country Guatemala, Central America’s largest economy, is led by President Bernardo Arévalo.
- What happened The Banco de Guatemala, the central bank, published its October 2026 survey of private analysts.
- Inflation Analysts expect inflation of 4.42% in December 2026, up from 3.94% in the September survey.
- Growth They forecast growth of 3.9% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027, both unchanged from September.
- Confidence The confidence index fell to 54.38 points, 3.19% below September and 6.77% below October 2025.
Private analysts in Guatemala now expect inflation of 4.42% at the end of 2026, nearly half a point above what they expected a month ago. The Banco de Guatemala (Banguat), the central bank, published the result in its October survey of an analyst panel.
For US readers, higher prices in Guatemala cut the buying power of the dollars that migrants send home, which came to about US$25.5 billion in 2025, as our guide to foreign money in Guatemala explains. The same survey shows that the analysts see slower growth than the 4.3% the economy recorded in 2025.
What Happened
Banguat ran its Survey of Economic Expectations of the Panel of Private Analysts between the second and fourth weeks of October 2026. The survey asks national specialists where they think prices and output are heading.
The panel expects inflation of 4.33% in October, 4.37% in November and 4.42% in December 2026. For December 2027 and December 2028 it expects 3.93% and 3.82%.
In Plain English
- Banguat The Banco de Guatemala, the country’s central bank.
- Inflation How fast prices rise over twelve months, shown as a percentage.
- Confidence index A score from 0 to 100 built from the analysts’ answers about business and the economy.
What Analysts Expect for Prices
The forecast for December 2026 rose by 0.48 points from the 3.94% expected in September, while the forecast for December 2027 barely moved. Over longer horizons the panel expects 3.99% in twelve months, 4.00% in two years and 3.69% in five years.
The analysts named energy prices as the most important factor behind the 2026 inflation forecast, followed by weather conditions and inflation in Guatemala’s trading partners. Fiscal and monetary policy also appear on their list.
What They See for Growth
The panel estimates real growth of 3.9% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027, with no change from the September survey. For the third quarter of 2026 it expects growth of 3.8%.
Banguat’s preliminary figures put growth at 4.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2024. Analysts listed energy prices and fiscal policy as the main factors that could change the pace this year.
The Confidence Index
The index of confidence in economic activity stood at 54.38 points in October, below 56.17 in September and 58.33 in October 2025. Its 2026 high was 62.21 points in February, and its low was 51.53 points in April.
In the poll, 43.8% of analysts expect the economy to improve over the next six months, while 56.2% do not. Only 18.8% called this a good moment for companies to invest, and 75% said they were not sure.
Most analysts, 87.5%, expect the business climate to stay the same over the next six months. Half of them, 50%, think the economy is better than a year ago.
What It Means for You
If you send money to Guatemala, higher inflation means each dollar buys somewhat less, even if the exchange rate holds. Families that depend on remittances feel this first in food and transport.
If you do business there, the survey points to slow but steady growth and a cautious investment mood. Our guide to foreign investment in Guatemala shows that US companies are the largest foreign investors.
What Is Not Known
The survey reflects the opinions of private analysts and not Banguat’s own forecast, so it can differ from the central bank’s official path. The text of the report does not discuss the latest actual inflation reading.
It is not known how much of the rise in expected inflation comes from oil prices and how much from the weather. The size of the panel is also not stated in the summary we reviewed.
More: Guatemala news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Inflation Do Guatemala Analysts Expect?
Private analysts surveyed in October 2026 expect inflation of 4.42% in December 2026. That is up from 3.94% in the September survey.
What Is Guatemala’s Confidence Index?
It is a score built from analysts’ answers about business and the economy, run by the central bank. It fell to 54.38 points in October 2026 from 56.17 in September.
How Fast Will Guatemala Grow?
The analyst panel forecasts real growth of 3.9% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027. Both figures are unchanged from the September survey.
Sources: Banco de Guatemala, Survey of Economic Expectations of the Panel of Private Analysts, October 2026, published October 2026; Banco de Guatemala, preliminary national accounts for 2024 and 2025.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error