BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Thursday, 22 October, 4:47 p.m. ET · Source: Gerp Mercadologia
Key Facts
- What happened On Wednesday 21 October, at about 5 p.m. ET (6 p.m. Brasília), the Brazilian polling firm Gerp published a new runoff survey.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 53% of valid votes and Lula 47%, while raw totals read 50% to 45%, with a 2-point margin of error.
- The change Gerp’s survey of 16 October had Flávio at 52% and Lula at 48% in valid votes, so the gap grew by 2 points.
- Fieldwork 2,400 voters were interviewed by telephone from 19 to 21 October, TSE registration BR-03835/2026.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22% (22 October, 4:43 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at – and Kalshi at 0% (Lula: – and 100%), as of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The poll cannot say how undecided voters or turnout will shape Sunday’s result.
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET).
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A new poll gives Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, 53% of valid votes against 47% for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, ahead of the Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October. The Gerp polling firm published it on Wednesday 21 October at about 5 p.m. ET.
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, which matches how the electoral court (TSE) will report the result on Sunday 25 October. This latest in our Brazil election polls coverage matters for investors in Brazilian stocks and US-listed Brazilian shares, as markets also price the Brazil election odds.
What the Gerp Runoff Poll Found
Gerp Mercadologia interviewed 2,400 voters by telephone from 19 to 21 October, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points and a 95% confidence level, Poder360 reported. The survey is registered with the TSE as BR-03835/2026 and was paid for by Gerp itself, Exame reported.
Among all voters, Flávio Bolsonaro has 50% and Lula 45%, with 4% blank, null or undecided, according to Poder360. Once those answers are set aside, the split becomes 53% to 47% in valid votes, a 6-point gap that Gerp calls statistically significant, CNN Brasil reported.
How the Race Moved in Five Days
Gerp’s previous survey, dated Friday 16 October, had Flávio at 52% and Lula at 48% in valid votes, CNN Brasil reported. Flávio gained one point and Lula lost one, a change inside the margin of error.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a lead of this size can shift prices before Sunday. Our Brazil runoff poll tracker lists every survey so you can compare the pollsters.
If you follow US trade or politics, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for four years. A single pollster’s numbers are a snapshot of three days of calls, not a forecast.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 78% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22% (22 October, 4:43 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$191.9 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The coverage we reviewed gives no breakdown by region, age or income, so it is unclear where Flávio’s gain came from. Interviews ended before the televised presidential debate planned for Friday 23 October, so any effect is not yet measured.
How many undecided voters will turn out on 25 October, and which way they will go, is open. A poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not predict the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 53% to 47% of valid votes in the Gerp poll published on Wednesday 21 October. Raw totals read 50% to 45%.
What is the margin of error?
Gerp reports a margin of 2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. It interviewed 2,400 voters by telephone from 19 to 21 October.
How did this poll change from Gerp’s last one?
On 16 October Gerp had Flávio at 52% and Lula at 48% in valid votes. The new numbers are one point better for Flávio.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner becomes president for a four-year term.
What are valid votes?
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters use them because the electoral court reports results the same way.
Sources: Poder360, 21 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 21 October 2026; Exame, 21 October 2026; InfoMoney, 21 October 2026; Gerp registration BR-03835/2026 (TSE).
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief