Fed Hike Odds Rise to 77% After Jobs Report
Prediction Markets: United States
Key Facts
•Prediction markets. A December US interest-rate hike trades at 76.5% on Polymarket, a prediction market, and about 78% on Kalshi (6 November, 11:30 a.m. ET).
•Trigger. The October jobs report showed 165,000 new jobs and unemployment at 4.1%, published 6 November at 8:30 a.m. ET.
•Fed now. The Federal Reserve held its rate at 3.75% to 4% on 28 October; two of 12 committee voters wanted a hike.
•Next tests. US inflation data on 10 November, meeting minutes on 18 November, November jobs on 4 December.
•Volume. The Polymarket contract has traded about US$16.3 million in total.
Traders now see a US interest-rate rise in December as the clear favourite, and the odds rose as a strong jobs report landed. A 0.25-point hike would lift borrowing costs for American households and the dollar-debt costs of emerging markets alike.
Bettors on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, gave a December Fed rate increase a 76.5% chance when we read the market at 11:30 a.m. ET on Friday 6 November 2026. The Federal Reserve, the US central bank, sets the interest rate that steers mortgages, car loans and savings yields.
The “no change” outcome stands at 21.5%, down about 6 points from a day earlier. The increase outcome rose by about 6 points over the same 24 hours.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in December?” market lists five outcomes. Prices are the implied probability that each one happens, read on 6 November at 11:30 a.m. ET:
- 25 bps increase (bps means basis points; 25 is a 0.25-point rise): 76.5%, up about 6 points in 24 hours and about 4 points in a week.
- No change: 21.5%, down about 6 points in 24 hours and about 3 points in a week.
- 25 bps decrease: 0.7%.
- 50+ bps increase: 0.5%.
- 50+ bps decrease: 0.4%.
The Polymarket market has traded about US$16.3 million since it opened, and roughly US$2.1 million changed hands in the last 24 hours, per Polymarket data. That is deep enough to take seriously, though it remains a bet by a self-selected crowd.
Kalshi, the exchange regulated in the US by the CFTC (the Commodity Futures Trading Commission), runs a differently built market on the same meeting. Its “above 4.00%” contract, which pays out if the Fed’s upper rate limit ends December above today’s 4%, last traded at 78 cents on 6 November, or about 78%. Roughly 15,800 contracts traded in 24 hours.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why the Odds Moved
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the government’s jobs-data agency, reported on 6 November that employers added 165,000 jobs in October. Unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in September.
Economists had expected far less: the forecast in our market-data feed, from provider RT market data, was 65,000. The agency also revised August up to 186,000 jobs from 133,000, and September to 60,000 from 29,000.
Pay rose too. Average hourly earnings gained 0.4% in October to US$38.00 an hour, and they are up 3.1% over 12 months.
Stronger hiring and rising wages are the kind of data that can keep inflation from cooling. That makes a rate rise easier for Fed officials to justify, which is how traders read it.
One caution: the 24-hour window reaches back to before the report, and public data cannot show which trade followed which headline. No single quote or statement explaining the jump has been published, so the link is an inference by traders, not a stated reason.
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 75,732 | -0.28% | -25.26% | 75,942 | 76,282 | 75,067 | 36,749,328,384 |
| ETH | 2,228 | -0.29% | -32.73% | 2,234 | 2,246 | 2,212 | 14,196,995,072 |
| SOL | 90.42 | +1.43% | -41.69% | 89.14 | 91.12 | 89.04 | 3,206,254,336 |
| XRP | 1.20 | -0.81% | -45.89% | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 2,864,654,080 |
| BNB | 694.68 | +0.97% | -26.77% | 688.03 | 697.42 | 686.31 | 1,564,214,272 |
| ADA | 0.19 | +3.86% | -64.66% | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 310,487,360 |
| DOGE | 0.07 | +2.67% | -54.82% | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 707,167,872 |
| AVAX | 8.38 | +2.74% | -47.98% | 8.15 | 8.44 | 8.15 | 247,149,136 |
| LINK | 10.89 | +2.23% | -25.96% | 10.65 | 10.99 | 10.65 | 303,476,096 |
| DOT | 0.93 | +2.90% | -65.00% | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 69,685,960 |
| LTC | 53.04 | +2.89% | -39.04% | 51.55 | 53.29 | 51.55 | 196,072,576 |
| BCH | 266.63 | -1.75% | -43.50% | 271.37 | 278.03 | 262.04 | 225,338,448 |
| TRX | 0.32 | +0.30% | +12.34% | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 385,303,104 |
| XLM | 0.16 | +2.22% | -42.16% | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 140,918,400 |
| HBAR | 0.07 | +1.42% | -58.08% | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 60,925,752 |
| NEAR | 3.75 | +2.81% | +79.30% | 3.65 | 3.80 | 3.64 | 654,054,080 |
| ATOM | 1.42 | +5.14% | -46.25% | 1.35 | 1.43 | 1.35 | 34,071,552 |
| AAVE | 131.17 | +2.23% | -33.41% | 128.31 | 132.76 | 128.22 | 277,171,104 |
Where the Fed Stands
At its 27–28 October meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s rate-setting panel, held its main rate at a range of 3.75% to 4%. The vote was 10 to 2.
Governor Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, who heads the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, voted against. Both preferred raising the range by 0.25 percentage points.
A hike in December would move the range to 4% to 4.25%. The market’s 76.5% price suggests traders think more officials will join the two hawkish dissenters.
What It Means for US Readers
A hike would raise what banks charge on credit cards, car loans and some mortgages, and it would lift what savers earn on cash. Investors who own US-listed shares of Latin American companies, known as ADRs, would also watch the dollar closely.
A stronger dollar can trim the dollar value of foreign earnings. It can also make travel to Latin America and Africa cheaper for Americans spending dollars abroad.
What It Means for Latin America and Africa
Many governments and companies in both regions borrow in dollars. When US rates rise, those loans tend to cost more to service and local currencies often come under pressure.
Higher US yields can also pull money out of emerging markets and into Treasuries, which are US government bonds. How strongly that happens depends on each country, and no market in this report prices a specific effect for any one economy.
Central banks in Brazil, Mexico, South Africa or Nigeria watch the Fed because it influences their currencies. A December hike could narrow their room to cut rates at home.
What Is Not Known
Nobody has confirmed what the committee will do in December, and the 76.5% price is a bet, not a decision. The next inflation report on 10 November, the Fed’s minutes (the written record) of the October meeting on 18 November and the November jobs report on 4 December could each move the odds.
We also do not know how many traders behind the price are professionals hedging risk, and how many are speculating. Prediction-market prices are not polls and not forecasts by The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are traders betting on?
They are betting on what the Federal Reserve will do to its main interest rate at its December meeting. On Polymarket, a 0.25-point increase trades at 76.5%, no change at 21.5%.
What did the jobs report show?
The US added 165,000 jobs in October, and unemployment slipped to 4.1% from 4.2%. Wages rose 0.4% in the month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Does a 76.5% price mean a hike is certain?
No. It is a market price, not a forecast by The Rio Times or the Fed. Prices can reverse within hours, and this market is large but not a poll.
Why does this matter outside the United States?
Higher US rates tend to lift the dollar and raise the cost of dollar loans. Emerging markets in Latin America and Africa often feel that first.
What could change the odds next?
The October inflation report on 10 November, the Fed’s meeting minutes on 18 November and the November jobs report on 4 December are the next scheduled tests.
Sources
US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, October 2026 · Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, 28 October 2026 · Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 6 November 2026, 11:30 a.m. ET) · RT economic calendar
Connected Coverage
Fed Hike Bets Lift US Yields, Nasdaq Gains 0.8%
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief