ECUADOR · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- The country Ecuador is an Andean and Pacific-coast country that uses the US dollar as its currency, so its budget is written in the dollars US readers use.
- Why it matters A dollar economy has no currency of its own to print, so the oil price it assumes and the debt it takes on decide how it pays for security, schools and hospitals.
- Why now The government of President Daniel Noboa delivered the 2027 budget proposal to the National Assembly on Friday 30 October 2026, one day after a decree that lets the state pay some salaries with non-permanent income such as loans.
- What happened Ecuador proposed a US$50.213 billion budget for 2027 with a smaller deficit than the 2026 plan, and the Assembly now has 30 days to respond.
- The numbers The plan assumes oil at US$66 a barrel, economic growth of 2.5%, inflation of 2.2% and a US$142.725 billion economy.
- What it means for you Investors, oil companies and travelers can read in the plan how much room the government expects for security, public works and debt.
- Still open The size of the deficit and the amount of new borrowing are not in the published summary.
- Power Index Ecuador ranks 8th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 38.2 points (October 2026 edition).
In Plain English
A proforma is the draft budget that the executive sends to the National Assembly each year, and the Assembly reviews it before it becomes the spending plan. Decree 527 is the presidential order of 29 October 2026 that lets the government pay some permanent costs, such as salaries, with non-permanent income, such as loans, in 2027.
Non-permanent income is money that does not arrive every year, such as loans, sales of state assets and oil sales. Permanent income is money such as tax revenue that the state can count on each year.
Ecuador’s government has asked the National Assembly to approve a US$50.213 billion budget for 2027, and the Ministry of Economic and Productive Development says the proposal carries the lowest deficit of President Daniel Noboa’s term. The proposal, delivered on Friday 30 October 2026 according to El Universo, is written in US dollars, which Ecuador uses as its currency, so no conversion applies to any figure in this report.
The total includes debt repayments and financing, not only spending, and the Assembly has 30 days to approve or comment on it. The plan assumes oil at US$66 a barrel, which makes the oil price one of the numbers that investors in Ecuadorian debt can follow.
Where the Money Would Go
The ministry allocates US$5.855 billion to the national health system and US$6.681 billion to primary and secondary education. Universities and polytechnic schools would receive US$1.652 billion, which is US$99 million or 6.37% more than the budget as adjusted to September 2026.
Security institutions would get US$4.251 billion, covering the defense ministry, the national police, the interior ministry, the prisons service and the ECU 911 emergency system. Social protection, which covers cash bonuses, pensions and other benefits for vulnerable people, would receive US$1.47 billion, and transfers to the social security institutions would total US$3.955 billion.
The annual investment plan would reach about US$3 billion, roughly US$563 million or 23% more than the budget as adjusted to September 2026. Local governments would receive US$4.346 billion, about US$618 million or 17% more, and the ministry lists the Quinto Puente bridge and the Viaducto Sur in Guayas province among the projects.
El Universo reported that US prosecutors in the Eastern District of New York announced on Friday 30 October 2026 that Ecuador had extradited alias “Churrón”, a suspected Los Choneros gang leader, a case covered in an earlier Rio Times report on the extradition. Security is also a recurring theme in the Ecuador coverage on the hub page.
The Assumptions Behind the Numbers
The ministry built the plan on nominal economic output of US$142.725 billion, real growth of 2.5% and average inflation of 2.2%. Nominal output is the size of the economy measured in current dollars before adjusting for price changes.
For oil, the plan assumes an average export price of US$66 a barrel and officially measured output of 165.6 million barrels, equal to about 454,000 barrels a day. Primicias lists oil sales among the non-permanent revenue sources, which is why the price assumption bears on how much the state may need to borrow.
The ministry said the deficit would be the lowest of the Noboa administration, down US$1.002 billion from the 2026 plan. The published summary does not give the deficit itself, and El Universo reported that it would be covered through public financing operations.
Decree 527 and How Salaries Are Paid
Noboa signed Decree 527 on Thursday 29 October 2026, allowing the government to pay permanent costs in health, education and justice with non-permanent income in 2027, according to Primicias. Such income includes loans, sales of state assets and oil sales, and the ministry issued the supporting reports on 28 October.
El Universo reported that Article 286 of the Constitution already allows this exception for health, education and justice, and that the government used it in 2025 for the 2026 budget. Primicias reported that of the US$10.079 billion foreseen for salaries in the 2026 budget, 45% went to the health and education ministries.
What Happens in the Assembly
El Universo reported that the Assembly has 30 days to approve or comment on the proposal in a single debate, and that its comments may apply only to sectors of income and spending without changing the total, as Article 295 of the Constitution provides. If the Assembly does not pronounce within the 30 days, the executive’s proposal takes effect automatically.
The proposal is the first budget presented by Economic Development Minister Bernardo Cordovez, who took office on 28 September 2026 after the exit of Sariha Moya, according to Primicias. His appointment is covered in an earlier Rio Times report, and the state’s spending pace this year is in a report on budget execution.
What It Means for You
Because Ecuador uses the US dollar, every figure in the proposal is already in US dollars, and a US investor in Ecuadorian debt or an oil company operating there does not face a currency conversion. The oil price of US$66 a barrel and the 165.6 million barrels of output are the assumptions that tie the budget to the global oil market.
For US travelers and expats, the plan shows that the government expects to spend US$4.251 billion on security institutions in 2027. The proposal is not law yet, so the amounts can still change by sector before they take effect.
What Is Not Known
The ministry has not published the size of the deficit or the amount of new borrowing that the plan needs. The mix of domestic and international loans that would cover the gap is also not in the summary.
It is not known whether the Assembly will comment on any sector within its 30 days, or how it will react to the use of borrowing for salaries in health, education and justice. How closely actual oil prices and output will match the assumption of US$66 a barrel and 165.6 million barrels is also unknown.
Frequently Asked Questions
How big is Ecuador’s 2027 budget proposal?
The government proposed a US$50.213 billion budget for 2027, which includes debt repayments and financing. The proposal went to the National Assembly on Friday 30 October 2026.
What oil price does Ecuador assume for 2027?
The proposal assumes an average export price of US$66 a barrel. It also assumes officially measured output of 165.6 million barrels, or about 454,000 barrels a day.
Does Ecuador use the US dollar?
Yes, Ecuador uses the US dollar as its currency, so the budget is written in dollars. No exchange-rate conversion applies to the figures.
What does Decree 527 allow?
Decree 527 lets the government pay permanent costs such as salaries in health, education and justice with non-permanent income in 2027. That income includes loans, asset sales and oil sales.
What happens next with the budget?
The National Assembly has 30 days to approve or comment on the proposal in a single debate. If it does not pronounce in that time, the proposal takes effect automatically.
Sources: Ecuador Ministry of Economic and Productive Development, proforma 2027 release; El Universo, 30 October 2026; Primicias, 30 October 2026; Primicias, 30 October 2026; Constitution of Ecuador, Articles 286 and 295, National Assembly edition, opened 31 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief