Who Runs Ecuador’s Economy, the Key Players in 2026

ECUADOR · ECONOMY

A dollar economy with no central-bank printing press, run by a small circle of ministers, bankers, state firms and export families. Here is who holds each lever in October 2026.

The Ecuador economy is fully dollarised, so the government cannot print money and relies on taxes, oil income and borrowing. This guide names who holds the key economic jobs in October 2026 and which banks, companies and sectors matter most.

It is built on official pages, company filings and Ecuadorian sources, and every figure carries its date. More coverage sits on the Rio Times Ecuador page.

How the Ecuador Economy Works

Ecuador produced about US$130.3 billion of output in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff report of April 2026. That is roughly US$7,200 per person, according to the same IMF tables.

Real growth was 3.7% in 2025, and the IMF projected 2.5% for 2026 in April. Public debt stood at 54.3% of output at the end of 2025, and the IMF projects it at 39.8% in 2031.

The IMF approved a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (a loan programme) in May 2024, raised in July 2025 to about US$5 billion. After the fifth review on 22 April 2026 the fund had disbursed about US$3.7 billion.

Ecuador returned to international bond markets in January 2026 for the first time since 2019. It sold US$4 billion of bonds and used US$3 billion of that to buy back older debt.

After the sale, Moody’s raised Ecuador’s rating two notches to Caa1 and Fitch one notch to B-, the IMF said. Spreads were about 490 basis points in early April 2026, the lowest since 2018.

Gross international reserves reached about US$9.8 billion at the end of 2025, up from US$6.9 billion a year earlier. Because Ecuador has no national currency, these reserves are the cushion behind bank deposits.

The current account, which tracks trade and transfers with the world, showed a surplus of about 5.8% of output in 2025. Oil exports earned about US$7.75 billion that year, at an average Ecuadorian crude price near US$59 a barrel.

The Government Team That Steers the Economy

Daniel Noboa is president and sets economic policy. He signs every decree that moves a minister, including the one of 28 September 2026.

On Monday, 28 September 2026, Executive Decree 509 named Bernardo Cordovez Cereceda as Minister of Economic and Productive Development. He replaced Sariha Moya, who had held the economy portfolio since 16 April 2025, Teleamazonas reported.

The ministry is a super-ministry, created in June 2026 by merging economy and finance with production, Europa Press reported. It took over the budget and debt work of the former economy and finance ministry.

Cordovez previously chaired the board of the social security institute IESS and ran its bank, BIESS, according to Teleamazonas. Primicias said he spent ten months as the president’s representative on the IESS board.

An IMF spokesperson said on 1 October 2026 that the fund’s team was already in contact with him, Primicias reported. The spokesperson said the sixth programme review would take place in the last quarter of 2026.

The Banco Central del Ecuador manages payment systems and the reserve, but under dollarisation it cannot print money. Its website lists Jorge Ponce Donoso as acting general manager in October 2026.

Two regulators complete the picture. Roberto Romero von Buchwald is Superintendent of Banks, and Luis Cabezas-Klaere is Superintendent of Companies, Securities and Insurance.

The Banks and Financial Regulators

Ecuador’s public and private financial system held about US$84.6 billion in assets in November 2025, the Superintendency of Banks reported. Seven institutions were rated systemically important in its 2025 exercise.

Banco Pichincha ranked first, with a systemic-importance score of 2,382 basis points, followed by Banco Guayaquil at 1,322. Banco del Pacífico scored 1,058, Produbanco 943, the state development bank CFN 931, Banco Bolivariano 814 and Banco Internacional 663.

Produbanco belongs to the regional Grupo Promerica, according to its own website. CFN, the Corporación Financiera Nacional, is a public development bank that kept its AAA- risk rating, it said on 8 October 2026.

The IMF reported in April 2026 that credit from private banks had levelled up, while credit from public banks had declined. It also said liquidity in the system was ample and credit growth stronger.

Dollarisation means banks cannot count on a lender of last resort that prints money. That is why the supervisors, and the IMF’s call to strengthen bank resolution rules, matter to every depositor.

Oil and the State Companies

Oil remains the biggest single export. Ecuador produced about 161 million barrels in 2025, or roughly 440,000 barrels a day, the IMF staff tables show.

The state company EP Petroecuador is at the centre of the sector. The IMF programme requires audits of its accounts, and launching a tender for 2022-2024 auditors was a benchmark the IMF marked met.

Crude leaves the Amazon by pipeline. The Oleoducto de Crudos Pesados (OCP) runs 485 kilometres through four provinces to its marine terminal at Esmeraldas.

OCP said on its website that it had moved about 1.295 billion barrels by 31 May 2026. It put the crude it had carried for the country’s exports at US$73.861 billion.

Cleaner accounts matter because oil is a significant share of fiscal revenue, the IMF said. The programme also covers audits of the electricity firms CNEL and CELEC.

Output fell in 2025 after heavy rain closed pipelines and halted production for a month, the IMF said. It lists failure to sustain oil output among the key risks.

Gold, Copper and the Mining Contracts

Mining is a fast-growing sector. Lundin Gold, a Canadian company listed in Toronto and Stockholm, runs the Fruta del Norte gold mine in the south-east.

Fruta del Norte produced a record 153,736 ounces in the third quarter of 2026, the company said on 8 October. Nine-month output reached 392,472 ounces, against full-year guidance of 475,000 to 525,000 ounces.

In the second quarter Lundin Gold earned revenue of US$478 million at an average gold price of US$4,359 an ounce. It made annual profit-sharing and income tax payments of US$221 million.

On 8 September 2026 Lundin Gold said the tax authority SRI proposed US$73 million for 2023, plus potential fines of US$81 million. The US$154 million total excludes interest, and Lundin says the assessment misreads its contract.

The sovereign adjustment is a top-up levy on miners, tied to a constitutional rule that the state gets half of project benefits. The IMF says a new fiscal regime from December 2025 aims to give investors legal and fiscal certainty.

In April 2026 the IMF said the government had committed to issue rules by end-June 2026 to reopen the mining cadastre. That register of concessions has been closed since 2018.

Shrimp and the Biggest Private Companies

Shrimp earned almost as much as oil in 2025. The National Chamber of Aquaculture (CNA) counted US$7.47 billion of shrimp exports from 3.07 billion pounds.

China took about 49% of the volume, worth US$3.27 billion. The United States bought US$1.77 billion, up 34% from 2024, and Europe US$1.68 billion.

In the first five months of 2026, exports reached about US$3.52 billion, CNA figures show. US purchases in that period were US$959 million, up about 32% from a year earlier.

The company regulator, the SCVS, said on 13 May 2026 that Ecuador had 172,641 active companies in 2025. The top of its ranking by revenue is dominated by wholesale and retail, food, aquaculture, mining and telecoms.

The SCVS open data file, cut off on 22 October 2026, lists 2025 figures that may change as firms file. Ranked by total income, Corporación Favorita, the Quito supermarket group, led with US$2.69 billion.

Next came Aurelian Ecuador, listed by the SCVS as a gold and silver miner, with US$1.75 billion. EcuaCorriente, a non-ferrous metals miner, reported US$1.66 billion, as did the Guayaquil retail group Corporación El Rosado.

The shrimp processor Industrial Pesquera Santa Priscila reported US$1.65 billion, and the fuel wholesaler Primax Comercial US$1.40 billion. The food processor Pronaca reported US$1.14 billion and the telecom firm Conecel US$1.03 billion.

Favorita says it employs about 26,100 people and has 273 supermarkets across Ecuador, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Costa Rica. It counts about 19,700 shareholders.

The Power Crisis as the Main Risk

Rolling blackouts are the sharpest risk to producers in October 2026. The shrimp chamber CNA said on 14 October that cuts had grown from 24 to 48 and then 72 hours a week.

It also reported a disconnection notice for medium-voltage users from 14 October, with reconnection planned from 06:00 on 21 October. For firms without their own generators, the chamber said, that means a full stop.

The fund’s risk list is covered in IMF Ecuador risks: blackouts, insecurity and El Niño. Its April 2026 staff report names oil output, security challenges and energy supply shocks.

For recent data, see Ecuador Economy Grew 2.1% in the Second Quarter of 2026. Inflation is covered in Ecuador Inflation Hits 1.34% in September.

On personnel and oil deals, read Ecuador Economy Minister Moya Replaced by Cordovez and Ecuador Oil Sale to Peru Tops US$1.6 Billion. For trade with Washington see Ecuador’s US trade deal and surcharge cut.

What It Means for US Readers

Ecuador uses the US dollar, so US travellers, retirees and remitters face no exchange-rate risk on the ground. The risk lies in blackouts, security and the strength of banks that hold dollar deposits.

The United States is Ecuador’s second-largest single-country shrimp buyer, with US$1.77 billion in 2025. Any trade rule from Washington, or a long blackout on the coast, shows up quickly in shrimp prices.

For investors, Lundin Gold is the main listed way to own Ecuadorian gold, and it trades in Toronto and Stockholm. Its tax dispute with the SRI will show how Ecuador applies the sovereign adjustment in its mining contracts.

Bondholders watch the IMF programme, because the fifth review alone released US$394 million. The IMF said in April 2026 that Ecuador had regained access to international markets.

What Is Not Known

The IMF said on 1 October 2026 that the sixth review comes in the last quarter. Its outcome and size are not yet known.

Current ownership shares of Banco Pichincha, Banco Guayaquil and other banks were not confirmed against a primary filing. The same applies to who ultimately owns the large private groups, so none is named here.

The 2025 company ranking is provisional, because the SCVS says firms are still filing. Petroecuador’s production by field was not confirmed, and the central bank’s own 2025 output estimate may differ from the IMF’s.

Europa Press and Primicias said Sariha Moya resigned, while Teleamazonas said the decree ended her functions. No reason has been given.

How the Lundin Gold tax dispute ends is open. So is whether the power cuts continued after 21 October.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who runs the Ecuador economy in 2026?

President Daniel Noboa sets policy, and Bernardo Cordovez has run the economy and production ministry since 28 September 2026. The central bank, led on an acting basis by Jorge Ponce, holds reserves and runs payments.

Does Ecuador use the US dollar?

Yes, the IMF describes Ecuador as fully dollarised. The government therefore cannot print money and depends on taxes, oil income and borrowing.

What are Ecuador’s biggest exports?

Oil earned about US$7.75 billion in 2025 and shrimp about US$7.47 billion, according to the IMF and the National Chamber of Aquaculture. Gold from the Fruta del Norte mine, which hit a record 153,736 ounces in the third quarter of 2026, is also growing.

Which banks matter most in Ecuador?

The Superintendency of Banks rated Banco Pichincha, Banco Guayaquil, Banco del Pacífico, Produbanco, CFN, Banco Bolivariano and Banco Internacional as systemically important. Pichincha ranked first.

How big is Ecuador’s IMF programme?

The Extended Fund Facility is worth about US$5 billion. About US$3.7 billion had been disbursed after the fifth review on 22 April 2026.

What is the biggest risk to the Ecuador economy now?

Power cuts are the sharpest short-term risk, reaching 72 hours a week in October 2026. Oil output, security and public debt are longer-term risks.

Is Ecuador safe for US investors?

Risk is real but measurable: debt was 54.3% of output in 2025 and reserves hit US$9.8 billion. Check blackouts, tax disputes such as Lundin Gold’s and any new IMF review before investing.

Sources: IMF, press release and staff report, fifth review (22 April 2026); Banco Central del Ecuador, authorities; Superintendencia de Bancos, systemic entities 2025; Superintendencia de Bancos, Superintendent; SCVS, Ranking Empresarial 2025 (13 May 2026); SCVS, open ranking data; Lundin Gold, Q3 production (8 October 2026); Lundin Gold, Q2 results (6 August 2026); Lundin Gold, sovereign adjustment notice (8 September 2026); Cámara Nacional de Acuacultura, export statistics; Cámara Nacional de Acuacultura, power cuts (14 October 2026); OCP Ecuador; Corporación Favorita; CFN; Teleamazonas, Decree 509 (28 September 2026); Primicias, Cordovez profile (28 September 2026) Primicias, IMF on the sixth review (2 October 2026); Europa Press via Diario Estrategia (28 September 2026); SCVS, Ranking 2025 data file (cut-off 22 October 2026) (all accessed 23 October 2026). The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, October 2026 edition, at the power map.