DR CONGO · HEALTH
Key Facts
- What happened Africa CDC, the African Union’s health agency, counts 5,376 Ebola deaths since May, most of them in Congo.
- Why it matters The Bundibugyo virus has no approved vaccine or treatment, and has reached Kenya, Uganda and Nigeria.
- Different counts The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) counted 5,107 confirmed deaths on 31 October.
- What is next From 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, 3 November, US-bound flyers must sign a Congo-travel statement.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a prediction market, gives 2.8% to a World Health Organization pandemic call in 2026 (2 November, 6:54 p.m. Eastern Time).
Ebola has now killed more than 5,000 people in Africa. The deaths are mostly in eastern Congo, but the virus has also reached Kenya, Uganda and Nigeria.
Africa CDC, the African Union’s public health agency, put the toll at 5,376 on Monday, 2 November 2026. Of those, 5,372 were in Congo, two in Kenya and two in Uganda. The virus is Bundibugyo, a rare species of Ebola.
How Many People Has Ebola Killed?
Africa CDC counts 10,444 confirmed cases, so about half of confirmed patients have died. That is a fatality rate above 50%.
Our last report counted 4,992 confirmed deaths in Congo as of 28 October, from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The agency’s update for 31 October lists 5,107 confirmed deaths and 10,498 confirmed cases across all countries.
Africa CDC’s toll is 269 higher than the US figure, yet its case count is lower. The two counts have different cut-off dates, and neither agency has explained the gap.
Why This Outbreak Is So Hard to Stop
The Bundibugyo virus is a rare Ebola species, first identified in Uganda in 2007. No vaccine or drug is approved against it.
Doctors are testing Ervebo, a vaccine approved for the better-known Zaire species of Ebola. Its effect on Bundibugyo is unproven, so the use is experimental.
The outbreak was declared in Congo in mid-May 2026, more than five months ago.
Where Has the Virus Spread?
Uganda, next door to Congo, had 20 cases and two deaths, according to both agencies. It has since been declared free of the virus.
Kenya confirmed nine cases in October, the first in its history. Nigeria confirmed one case in a woman linked to the Swiss embassy in Abuja, who had travelled from Uganda. She was flown to Switzerland for treatment.
Our earlier coverage of the Congo outbreak nearing 5,000 deaths and of cases passing 10,000 tracks that path.
What It Means for US Readers
The CDC bars anyone who was in Congo within 21 days from boarding a commercial flight to the United States. From 11:59 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, 3 November, every passenger on an international flight to the US must also sign a written statement that they have not been in Congo in that period.
The CDC tells Americans to avoid all travel to Ituri and Nord-Kivu, two Congolese provinces, its highest warning level, and to reconsider nonessential travel to Haut-Uele and Tshopo.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, an online prediction market, gives 2.8% to the World Health Organization (WHO) calling Ebola a pandemic in 2026. It had US$811,343 traded as of 6:54 p.m. Eastern on Monday, 2 November 2026.
A second Polymarket contract asks which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026. It had US$77,743 traded and gives South Sudan 30%, Somalia 28.5% and Republic of the Congo 25%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Africa CDC has not said whether its 5,376 includes probable deaths or only laboratory-confirmed ones.
If the US CDC’s next summary shows a toll near 5,376, the gap is a matter of timing; if it stays far below, the agencies count differently. The next dated test is Tuesday, 3 November, when the US flight attestation takes effect.
Updates from the WHO will show whether weekly deaths are rising or flattening. Until then, the safest reading is that the outbreak has passed 5,000 deaths and continues.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many people have died of Ebola in this outbreak?
Africa CDC counts 5,376 deaths as of 2 November 2026, including 5,372 in Congo. The US CDC counted 5,107 confirmed deaths as of 31 October.
Is there a vaccine for the Bundibugyo virus?
No vaccine or treatment is approved for this species. Doctors are testing Ervebo, a Zaire-species vaccine, on an experimental basis.
Sources: Africa CDC figures of 2 November 2026; US CDC Ebola situation summary; ECDC Ebola multi-country outbreak page; Polymarket (all accessed 2 November 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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