COP Holds Near 4,025 as TRM Edges Higher; COLCAP Pauses After Overbought Run

USD/COP trades around 4,024.5 on the four-hour panel you provided. The official TRM for today prints 4,017.44 per dollar, above yesterday’s 4,008.70. That rise favors the dollar on settlement while spot sits just over short-term support.

The U.S. Dollar Index benchmark uses ICE calculations. The latest official daily Nominal Broad Dollar Index reading is 120.70 for August 22, which pre-dates today’s fix.

Four-hour USD/COP technicals show narrow Bollinger Bands, RSI near 50, and a flat MACD. That mix signals a range with mean-reversion bias. Immediate support aligns near 4,017, with resistance clustered at 4,055 to 4,065.

The daily USD/COP view keeps price below the 50- and 100-day moving averages around 4,05x. The 200-day sits near 4,19x. RSI holds in the mid-40s and MACD remains negative, which preserves a soft, grinding downtrend.

DANE reports July inflation at 4.90 percent year over year and 0.28 percent month over month. Banco de la República maintains the policy rate at 9.25 percent, reaffirmed in July. These anchors shape carry and discount-rate assumptions guiding local risk taking.

The MSCI COLCAP on the daily chart sits near 1,850.02 after a 0.45 percent slip. The trend remains higher, yet price rides the upper Bollinger Band with RSI around the low-70s.

That overbought signal argues for a pause or pullback toward 1,834 to 1,845, then about 1,810. Four-hour COLCAP momentum cools as MACD flattens and RSI eases.

The yellow Global Liquidity Index NDQ overlay on the charts climbed into mid-August and then flattened. That change suggests the earlier liquidity tailwind has moderated.

Winners and losers over this window come from the same official tapes. The dollar gains 0.22 percent versus the peso on the TRM day-over-day comparison. Equities lag, with the COLCAP down 0.45 percent on the daily panel.

Peer benchmarking shows a softer regional tone. Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC closed at 58,492.13, down 1.24 percent on August 25. That comparison supports a cautious stance on chasing strength at local highs.

Bottom line for traders is straightforward. USD/COP needs a close above 4,055 to 4,065 to unlock upside; otherwise, ranges should persist. For stocks, the trend remains intact, but overbought signals favor buy-the-dip discipline toward the cited support zones.

Data come from the Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia, Banco de la República, DANE, ICE Data Indices, S&P Dow Jones Indices, and the supplied charts. These are official sources. This report uses only those figures and the charted levels.

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