Colombia’s Peso Firms As Stocks Press Higher, With Oil Slump Acting As A Brake

Colombia’s peso hovered near 3,922 per dollar on Wednesday morning, modestly stronger as a softer U.S. dollar rippled across emerging markets.

The dollar index sat just under 99 after investors bet the Federal Reserve is edging toward rate cuts and a wind-down of quantitative tightening.

That global breeze helped the peso even as cheaper oil—normally a drag for Colombia—kept a lid on gains. For settlements, the market uses today’s official TRM around 3,933.

Equities kept climbing. The MSCI Colcap rose 1.15% on Tuesday to 1,891.64, with roughly COP 138 billion changing hands, nudging multi-year highs.

The “story behind the story” is a friendlier mix of external and domestic signals: a weaker dollar that makes risk assets easier to own; still-attractive local carry with real rates positive; and a finance-ministry liability swap last week that loosened public-debt plumbing and reassured local desks about liquidity.

Offshore vehicles reflected thin but constructive interest—gains were steadier on the ground in Bogotá than in U.S. Colombia ETFs, where volumes remain light.

Winners And Losers (Oct 14 close)

Winners: Grupo Nutresa +6.35%, Mineros +1.95%, Grupo Aval Pref +1.44%, Grupo Cibest +1.33%, Suramericana +1.31%.

Losers: Cementos Argos −3.63%, Bancolombia Pref −2.57%, Canacol Energy −2.26%, Ecopetrol −1.42%, ISA −1.21%.

Why It Moved

Global: Fed-dovish rhetoric undercut the dollar and buoyed EM assets. Counterforce: Brent near the low-$60s reminded traders that Colombia’s terms of trade are wobbling, tempering enthusiasm for energy names.

Local: High nominal rates continue to anchor peso demand; the recent TES swap reduced near-term funding frictions, supporting sentiment across banks and staples.

What The Tape Says Now

USD/COP is probing resistance at 3,925–3,940; a push through 3,966 would signal more upside, while 3,900/3,897 remains first support. The Colcap’s trend is constructive above 1,875–1,868; a clean break over ~1,903 would put 1,920s on the map.

What To Watch

Whether U.S. data keep the dollar on the back foot; oil inventories after surplus warnings; and if local flows can carry the Colcap through resistance while USD/COP stays below 3,940. The near-term balance: global dollar softness favors Colombia, but oil weakness keeps investors honest.