Colombian Stocks and Peso Steady After 7-Day Surge as Technical Signals Demand Caution

The Colombian market, as charted via TradingView for August 18, shows stocks running ahead while the peso stays constrained near 4,015 per dollar.

The COLCAP index climbed consistently for seven days, finishing at 1,857, but signals warn that this move may be stretched. Reviewing daily COLCAP figures, the index gained more than 3% since last Monday, outperforming Brazil’s Ibovespa and Mexico’s IPC.

Financials and consumer names led gains, with Corporación Financiera Colombiana and Grupo Nutresa among top advancers. Celsia and ETB saw the sharpest losses.

Volume data from the week confirms strong buying support, particularly as the rally accelerated midweek. ETF flows, verified by official trackers, increased as global liquidity improved and commodity prices stabilized.

Technical analysis underscores the story. Daily and 4-hour charts show prices far above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. This positions the market squarely in bull territory.

However, the MACD widened with each session, and the histogram grew more positive, reflecting accelerating momentum. The RSI closed at nearly 80 on Friday, signaling overbought territory rarely sustained in prior years.

Recent candles on the four-hour chart suggest momentum may sting short sellers, yet risk remains for reversal traders as momentum indicators flag extremes. Bollinger Bands widened sharply, and prices hugged the upper band all week.

Historically, this dynamic often leads to sharp reversals if buyers step aside. Key supports rest near 1,800, with resistance at 1,860. Volume ticked up on up days, confirming buying conviction aligned with local and international flow data.

The peso’s story tells of consolidation. After a volatile start to the week, the currency firmed up and held a tight range around 4,015, even as the dollar index softened globally.

RSI and MACD on the daily USD/COP chart point to indecision. The 4-hour chart reveals several rejected tests above 4,050 midweek before retreating, with sellers regaining control as risk appetite moved to equities.

Notably, Colombia’s Global Liquidity Index (the yellow line) climbed steadily this week, hinting at stronger capital inflows. This liquidity surge ties directly to the week’s spread between bullish domestic equities and a pausing peso.

No official sources point to broad economic surprises—stability and inflows remained the story. However, technicals, particularly the RSI and persistent gains above moving averages, warn that the current uptrend in stocks has moved into high-risk, overbought terrain.

This week’s benchmark: Colombian equities outperformed their main LatAm peers on confirmed flows and momentum, but both local and international investors must watch for sharp adjustments if enthusiasm cools.

The peso, meanwhile, proved less volatile and stayed controlled, moving with regional majors but showing no break in the established range.