Chile’s Peso Presses 900 As Dollar Softens And Stocks Cool Into Year-End
Key Points
- USD/CLP traded near 901, testing the 900 line in thin holiday liquidity.
- Copper held near $5.78/lb as the dollar index slid toward its worst weekly loss since July.
- The IPSA hovered around 10,482.33, pausing after a powerful 2025 run.
The peso opened December 26 with USD/CLP around 901.37 in platform pricing, versus about 904.35 on other real-time screens and an official observed reference near 906.44. The gap reflected thin flow and the difference between live quotes and reference fixes.
The macro tailwind was a softer U.S. dollar. As the broad dollar eased into year-end, traders fixated on whether 900 would act as support or a trapdoor.
Copper supplied support. At roughly $5.78 a pound, the metal kept Chile’s terms-of-trade story intact. Analysts have cautioned the rally is supply-driven and “thin” at these heights, with copper nearing the $12,000-a-ton neighborhood, which can magnify reversals when liquidity returns.
Recent Chile data leaned supportive. A trade surplus beat expectations, helped by higher copper export revenue.
Meanwhile, the central bank’s FX purchase program has accumulated about $1.9 billion as of early December, adding a steady bid for dollars without reversing the peso’s trend.
Technicals show the move is stretched. On both the 4-hour and daily USD/CLP charts, RSI was near 31, and MACD remained negative. The map is simple: 900 is first support; 905–910 is the first zone that would need to be reclaimed to argue the downtrend is fading.
Equities were steadier than FX. The S&P IPSA sat near 10,386.99, down only slightly as the market consolidated. Local financial press has framed 2025 gains as roughly mid-50%.
Offshore, the iShares Chile ETF showed NAV near 40.06 and a year-to-date NAV return of 62.33% as of December 24. Short-term momentum stayed constructive, but weekly RSI readings were extreme, and the daily histogram had turned negative, a cooling signal.
Winners (Dec 24 session): copper exposure, CLP strength, Chile equity beta, carry trades, and risk-on positioning.
Losers: broad dollar longs, USD/CLP momentum, hedged importers, volatility sellers, and crowded trend trades.
Live Market IntelligenceChile — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Chile — Live Market Board
+0.34%
166,334.86
-0.27%
64,301.04
+0.07%
11,186.57
+0.34%
2,891,651
-1.89%
2,461.23
+0.36%
58,401.58
-1.35%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPSA | 11,186.57 | +0.34% | — | 11,148.13 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| COPPER | 6.61 | +0.03% | +46.70% | 6.61 | 6.71 | 6.61 | 39,543 |
| SQM-B | 65,305 | -0.84% | +49.03% | 65,860 | 66,949 | 64,978 | 76,539 |
| COPEC | 5,964 | -1.09% | -11.70% | 6,030 | 6,100 | 5,960 | 634,331 |
| BSANTANDER | 78.37 | -2.28% | +35.94% | 80.20 | 81.69 | 78.34 | 36,288,711 |
| FALABELLA | 6,334 | -1.48% | +23.28% | 6,429 | 6,450 | 6,300 | 26,085,814 |
| ENELAM | 87.09 | +0.10% | -10.13% | 87.00 | 87.40 | 86.50 | 13,106,417 |
| CENCOSUD | 1,946 | -2.19% | -35.30% | 1,990 | 2,010 | 1,945 | 966,528 |
| CMPC | 1,020 | -1.96% | -29.10% | 1,040 | 1,050 | 1,015 | 3,526,677 |
| BANCO CHILE | 184.96 | -1.01% | +32.87% | 186.85 | 189.99 | 184.33 | 18,101,240 |
| LATAM AIR | 24.08 | -1.11% | +16.61% | 24.35 | 24.59 | 23.88 | 573,612,753 |
| SOUTHERN COPPER | 193.97 | -0.26% | +104.01% | 194.48 | 199.36 | 192.59 | 367,102 |
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