Key Facts
- The oil fund edged lower: the fund that tracks WTI crude (USO) closed Friday, 13 November 2026 at US$145.58, -0.34%, its first fall after a short rebound.
- Far from the top: the fund sits 14.1% below its 12-month high of 169.53, set on 23 October, and has lost 10.00% over 20 sessions.
- Latin American shares rose anyway: Brazil’s Petrobras gained 1.33% to US$18.34, Argentina’s YPF rose 1.88% to US$37.90 and Colombia’s Ecopetrol added 0.72% to US$15.43.
- Petrobras is the casualty of the fall: its New York shares are 29.9% below the 26.16 peak of 23 October.
- Rates are the headwind: the US 10-year yield reached 5.14%, up 31 basis points in five sessions, while the dollar index stood at 103.41.
- History is mixed: after 65 earlier falls this size, WTI was higher 20 sessions later 37 times, or 57%.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a real-money prediction market, prices an 84.5% chance that WTI crude touches US$90 a barrel at some point in November and a 72.0% chance it touches US$85 on the downside (US$2.38 million traded, 8:05 p.m. ET, 13 November).
Today’s Focus
Oil drifted lower on Friday, 13 November 2026, but the real story is the size of the retreat since late October. The fund tracking WTI crude (USO) closed at US$145.58, -0.34%, which leaves it 14.1% below its October high.
The main cause is a tug of war. The war involving Iran keeps a risk premium in prices, meaning an extra charge buyers pay for fear of lost supply. Against that, the fund has still lost 10.00% over 20 sessions, so the premium is fading rather than building.
Rising borrowing costs added weight. The US 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark rate for global lending, stood at 5.14%, and a higher yield tends to cool demand for oil.
For Latin America the picture is split: producers such as Petrobras, YPF and Ecopetrol rose on the day, but the 20-session pain is deep, especially for Petrobras.
What matters today. Oil is no longer rising on war fear alone, so Latin American producers now depend on whether Iran supply returns and whether US rates stop climbing.
01 The session in one read
Oil ended a quiet Friday little changed. WTI crude futures settled 0.2% higher at US$88.92 a barrel and Brent futures rose 0.3% to US$96.08, while the WTI-tracking fund (USO) settled at US$145.58, -0.34%, its first down session after a brief bounce.
The small fall hides a bigger shift. Over five sessions the fund is down 1.91%, over 20 sessions down 10.00%, and it is 14.1% below its 23 October peak.
Think of it as a car that sped round a bend in October and is now slowing on the straight.
The best-supported reading is that oil is drifting down from an October spike while Iran headlines keep it from collapsing. We rate this medium confidence because the daily move was small and we could not tie it to one named event, so the variable to watch is whether the US 10-year yield holds above 5.14%.
02 The board
Latin America’s listed producers ignored the oil dip. Petrobras, Brazil’s state-controlled giant, rose 1.33% to US$18.34, while Argentina’s YPF jumped 1.88% to US$37.90.
Colombia’s Ecopetrol gained 0.72% to US$15.43 and has now risen three sessions in a row. These are New York share prices, so they track the companies, not crude itself.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$145.58 | -0.34% |
| Petrobras | US$18.34 | +1.33% |
| Ecopetrol | US$15.43 | +0.72% |
| YPF | US$37.90 | +1.88% |
Source: RT close, 2026-11-13. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 172,457.76 | +0.66% | +9.73% | 171,324.31 | 172,715 | 171,132 | — |
| IPSA | 10,660.94 | +0.34% | — | 10,625.19 | 10,699 | 10,624 | — |
| IPC MEX | 71,610.23 | -0.28% | +13.87% | 71,811.20 | 71,981 | 71,044 | 149,701,210 |
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | -10.97% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,452.46 | -0.02% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.67 | +0.45% | +7.09% | 5.64 | 5.67 | 5.63 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 6.25 | +0.93% | +1.93% | 6.19 | 6.26 | 6.21 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.52 | -0.42% | +1.29% | 18.60 | 18.63 | 18.51 | — |
| USD/CLP | 994.16 | -0.13% | +6.95% | 995.48 | 1,002 | 993.78 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,302 | +0.70% | -10.86% | 3,279 | 3,331 | 3,302 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.40 | -0.16% | +0.77% | 3.41 | 3.41 | 3.39 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,544 | -0.11% | +9.58% | 1,545 | 1,548 | 1,543 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.59 | +2.33% | +3.41% | 39.67 | 40.59 | 40.52 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,196 | +2.33% | -10.79% | 6,055 | 6,196 | 6,185 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.59 | -0.37% | +72.02% | 11.63 | 11.60 | 11.55 | — |
| USD/DOP | 60.59 | +1.85% | -5.40% | 59.49 | 60.61 | 60.27 | — |
| USD/CRC | 442.74 | -0.10% | -9.70% | 443.16 | 445.25 | 442.74 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.64 | +2.06% | +2.02% | 7.49 | 7.65 | 7.64 | — |
03 Why it moved
First and heaviest is Iran. Mohammad Ghasemi, an official at Iran’s planning and budget organisation, said this week that Iran must prepare for circumstances in which oil revenue falls to zero, and the US Treasury says Iranian crude loadings have stopped since late August. Confidence: medium-high.
Third is money. The dollar index rose 0.23% on the day and 1.09% over five sessions, and the 10-year yield climbed 31 basis points in a week. A stronger dollar makes oil dearer for non-US buyers. The S&P 500, at 7,562, slipped 0.40%, while the VIX fear gauge rose 3.21% to 19.30.
Gold also fell, with its fund down 4.58% over five sessions, which fits a rates-driven story. Confidence in the full ranking: medium.
From the RT economic calendar and official data: the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that commercial crude stocks, excluding the strategic reserve, rose by 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million in the week ending 6 November, while gasoline stocks rose 1.8 million to 210.8 million and distillate stocks rose 4.1 million to 103.3 million. The Baker Hughes count of US oil rigs stayed at 463, and gas rigs fell to 127 from 131. A build in crude stocks points to ample supply, which tempers the war premium.
04 The trend behind it
The 12-month range is vast. The fund sits 120.0% above its December 2025 low of 66.17, but 14.1% below the high of 169.53.
Over 60 sessions it is still up 8.2%, so this looks like a pullback inside a bigger rally, not a clean reversal. The one-session fall is minor, but the 20-session slide is the fastest in months.
Our own price history since 2007 gives a sober guide. In 65 earlier cases of a 10% fall in 20 sessions, WTI was higher 20 sessions later in 37, or 57%, with a median gain of 2.2% and a worst case of -50.6%. History is not a forecast.
05 What it means for Latin America
Brazil takes the sharpest blow. Petrobras is 29.9% below its October high, and its shares fell 29.46% in 20 sessions, a bigger drop than crude itself. Our history shows that after 13 comparable falls it was higher 20 sessions later only 6 times, with a median of -6.4%.
Colombia depends on Ecopetrol and oil taxes, and its shares are 15.5% below the September high. Argentina has a more hopeful story: Vaca Muerta, its giant shale formation, is expanding, and YPF rose 1.88% on Friday.
Guyana’s growth rests on ExxonMobil’s Stabroek offshore block, so lower crude trims the national windfall without stopping output. Mexico’s Pemex carries heavy debt maturities, which makes it the most exposed to a longer oil slump.
06 The names to watch
Petrobras is the barometer. It has risen two sessions in a row, but it is still 58.9% above its January low and far below its peak, so its recovery is fragile.
YPF has the strongest daily momentum. Ecopetrol, at 15.43 with three straight gains, is the quiet one, still 67.5% above its December 2025 low.
07 What would end it
Levels first. For the oil fund, the round numbers of 140 and 150 are the nearest markers, with the 169.53 peak far above and 66.17 far below.
Next, the catalysts. A US-Iran peace deal that returns Iranian barrels would push crude lower, while new tanker disruptions would revive the war premium.
Watch also the next US inflation and Treasury auctions, because a yield above 5.14% hurts oil. Does the slide stop? Probably not before the Iran question is settled.
08 What to watch
- Iran: Any sign of a deal or fresh disruption decides whether the war premium returns.
- US yields: The 10-year Treasury at 5.14% and the dollar index at 103.41 weigh on oil demand.
- Petrobras: Whether shares hold above the 18 level after falling so far from the October high.
- Output reports: Gulf producers raising output could outweigh Iran’s lost barrels.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, where users bet real money, lists a market on the prices WTI crude will hit in November 2026, with US$2.38 million traded as of 8:05 p.m. ET, 13 November 2026. It prices a touch of US$90 at 84.5%, a touch of US$85 on the downside at 72.0%, a touch of US$95 at 37.5%, a touch of US$80 on the downside at 32.0% and a touch of US$100 at 22.5%.
These prices are bets, not polls. They show traders expect a volatile month, with crude near US$89 able to test both US$85 and US$90.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil fall on Friday, 13 November 2026?
The WTI-tracking fund (USO) slipped 0.34% while WTI futures edged up 0.2%; higher US yields and a firmer dollar weighed on demand, while Iran keeps a supply risk in prices.
Is oil in a bear market?
Not by the standard 20% definition: the fund is 14.1% below its October high, though it fell 10.00% in 20 sessions.
Why did Petrobras rise while crude fell?
It gained 1.33% after a steep slide of 29.46% over 20 sessions, which suggests buyers were picking up bargains.
Does history say oil rebounds?
After 65 similar falls, WTI was higher 20 sessions later in 57% of cases, but the worst was -50.6%, and history is not a forecast.
Market data: The Rio Times
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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