CHILE · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —Power Index Chile ranks 3rd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 63.6 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What is happening Cadem, a Chilean polling firm, put President José Antonio Kast’s approval at 26% in its weekly poll of Sunday, 1 November, down 3 points.
- —Why it matters Chile is the world’s largest copper producer, and its conservative president now has less public backing for the bills his agenda needs.
- —The numbers Approval is 26%, down 7 points since the Rabat sentence-reduction case began, and 70% disagree with keeping Justice Minister Fernando Rabat in office.
- —Who is who Kast, a conservative, has led Chile since March; Cadem is a Chilean pollster; Rabat is the justice minister at the centre of the sentence-reduction row.
- —What to watch Whether opposition deputies file a constitutional accusation against Rabat in early November, and whether Cadem’s next weekly poll shows approval stabilising.
- —What it means for you Approval polls do not change Chilean law, but a weaker president can slow mining, tax and security bills that matter to US investors.
Cadem, a Chilean polling firm, says only about one in four Chileans now approve of President José Antonio Kast. The reading is the lowest of his term in Cadem’s tracking.
Cadem’s weekly Plaza Pública poll, published on Sunday, 1 November, puts the approval of Chile’s President José Antonio Kast at 26%. That is down three points and the lowest in Cadem’s tracking since he took office in March.
IN PLAIN ENGLISH
- Cadem is a Chilean market research firm. Its weekly Plaza Pública poll tracks presidential approval and public mood.
- Kast is Chile’s conservative president and founder of the Republican Party. He took office in March 2026.
- Rabat is Fernando Rabat, Kast’s justice minister. His ministry signed the decrees that cut prison terms for 56 people convicted of sexual crimes against minors.
- Constitutional accusation is Chile’s impeachment procedure for ministers: the lower house charges, and the Senate decides.
What the Poll Found
Approval has fallen seven points since the sentence-reduction case, known as the Rabat case, began, Cadem says. October averaged 30% approval and 65% disapproval, which Cadem calls his worst month.
The fall appears in every group Cadem tracks. Among people who voted for Kast in the 2025 runoff, approval is 59%, down 10 points.
Among people who place themselves on the right, approval is 65%, down 7 points. Among adults aged 18 to 34 it is 15%, down 4 points.
The Sentence Reduction Row
The Justice Ministry signed decrees that shortened prison terms for 56 people convicted of sexual crimes against minors. In Cadem’s poll of 25 October, 92% disagreed with the reductions.
The new poll finds 70% disagree with Kast’s decision to keep Rabat, up six points. It finds 78% disapprove of how Rabat has handled his job.
Rabat has defended the decrees as lawful, and Kast has kept him in office. Opposition deputies announced on Wednesday, 28 October, that they will pursue a constitutional accusation against him.
A Gloomy Mood on the Economy
Cadem finds 71% say Chile is on the wrong track, the highest since March. It finds 68% are pessimistic about the country’s future, the highest since March 2015.
Some 92% rate the employment situation as bad or very bad, and 71% worry about job stability. Chile’s statistics office says industrial production fell 2.7% year on year in September.
What It Means for US Readers
Chile is the world’s largest copper producer, a metal US industry uses in wiring and electric vehicles. Polls do not change Chilean law, and Kast’s term runs to March 2030.
A weaker president can have less leverage in Congress, where mining, tax and security bills are decided. That matters for US firms with Chilean exposure.
US holders of copper miners and Chilean ADRs, New York-listed shares of Chilean firms, should watch the Rabat dispute for cabinet changes. The poll itself brings no new rules for US travellers or traders.
Related Rio Times reports include Chile’s Kast Approval Falls to 27%, Disapproval 64% and Chile Justice Undersecretary Exit Explained. More is on the Chile hub, the sentence reduction explainer, the Santiago city page and the Latin America Power Map.
What Is Not Known
Cadem’s published summary does not state the sample size, field dates or margin of error. The full study file could not be opened, so none of these details is given here.
It is unknown whether the opposition will file the accusation, or whether enough governing-bloc deputies would back it. Rabat has not resigned, and no ruling has been issued on the decrees.
What Comes Next
Cadem publishes a Plaza Pública poll every Sunday, so the next reading is expected on 8 November. Opposition deputies have said they will file the accusation against Rabat in early November.
In the lower house, a majority of deputies present decides whether the accusation goes to the Senate. The Senate then needs 26 of its 50 members to remove a minister.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Cadem?
Cadem is a Chilean market research firm. Its weekly Plaza Pública poll tracks presidential approval and public mood.
How low is Kast’s approval?
Cadem puts it at 26%, down three points and the lowest in Cadem’s tracking of his term. October averaged 30% approval.
Why did Kast’s approval fall?
Cadem says approval has fallen seven points since the Rabat case began. In that case the Justice Ministry cut sentences for 56 people convicted of sexual crimes against minors.
Can a poll remove Kast from office?
No, a poll has no legal effect and Kast’s term runs to March 2030. The opposition’s planned accusation targets Justice Minister Rabat, not the president.
Sources: Cadem, Plaza Pública study of 1 November 2026; Cadem, Plaza Pública study of 25 October 2026; National Statistics Institute of Chile (INE), industrial production index, September 2026, published 30 October; Constitution of Chile, articles 52 and 53; US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, copper (all accessed 2 November 2026).
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error