Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for September 23, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets are navigating a complex environment shaped by domestic corporate shakeups and global monetary policy shifts.
The Central Bank released its Copom Meeting Minutes at 7:00 AM BRT, providing insights into the decision to maintain the Selic rate at a two-decade high of 15% on September 17, amid persistent core inflation above the 3% target and a fragile economic recovery.
Top economists now forecast the Selic to ease gradually to 12.25% by end-2026, down from 12.38% a week ago, signaling a potential turning point for businesses strained by high borrowing costs that have cooled credit demand and consumer spending.
Meanwhile, LATAM Airlines Group’s landmark order for 24 Embraer E195-E2 jets worth $2.1 billion at list prices, with options for 50 more, underscores strategic growth in regional aviation, boosting Embraer’s market share and supporting Brazil’s aerospace sector amid rebounding intra-regional travel.
These developments, combined with anticipation of U.S. Federal Reserve speeches and PMI data, set the stage for heightened market sensitivity as today’s economic agenda unfolds.
Economic Agenda for September 23, 2025
Brazil (10th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.125 trillion)
- 7:00 AM BRT – BCB Copom Meeting Minutes: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Details the rationale behind the Selic rate decision.
Implication: Insights into the Central Bank’s stance on inflation and growth will influence expectations for future rate cuts, impacting borrowing costs for businesses and consumer sectors. A dovish tone could support equity markets, while hawkish signals may pressure the real and high-yield bonds.
United States (Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$30.50 trillion)
- 8:30 AM BRT – Current Account (Q2): Actual TBD, Consensus -259.0B, Previous -450.2B. Measures trade and income balances.
- 8:30 AM BRT – Fed Goolsbee Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Provides policy insights.
- 8:55 AM BRT – Redbook (YoY): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 6.3%. Tracks weekly retail sales.
- 9:00 AM BRT – FOMC Member Bowman Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Discusses monetary policy.
- 9:45 AM BRT – Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 52.2, Previous 53.0. Gauges factory activity.
- 9:45 AM BRT – S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 54.6, Previous 54.6. Measures overall private sector output.
- 9:45 AM BRT – Services PMI (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 54.0, Previous 54.5. Tracks service sector health.
- 12:35 PM BRT – Fed Chair Powell Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Key policy signals.
- 13:00 PM BRT – 2-Year Note Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.641%. Influences short-term yields.
Implication: U.S. PMI data and Fed speeches will shape expectations for further rate cuts beyond the recent 25 bps reduction to 4.00-4.25%, influencing global capital flows and Brazil’s commodity exports.
Strong PMIs could bolster demand for Brazil’s oil and agricultural goods, while softer figures may heighten pressures from U.S. trade policies and tariffs.
Europe (Collective GDP of Key Economies: Germany, UK, France, etc.)
- 01:00 AM BRT – INR Nikkei S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Actual 58.5, Consensus TBD, Previous 59.3. Tracks Indian factory activity.
- 01:00 AM BRT – INR Nikkei Services PMI (Sep): Actual 61.6, Consensus TBD, Previous 62.9. Measures services output.
- 01:00 AM BRT – SGD Core CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual 0.30%, Consensus 0.40%, Previous 0.50%. Core inflation gauge.
- 01:00 AM BRT – SGD CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual 0.5%, Consensus 0.6%, Previous 0.6%. Annual inflation.
- 04:00 AM BRT – EUR Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 50.7, Previous 50.7. Eurozone factories.
- 04:00 AM BRT – EUR S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 51.1, Previous 51.0. Eurozone overall.
- 04:00 AM BRT – EUR Services PMI (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 50.6, Previous 50.5. Eurozone services.
- 04:30 AM BRT – GBP Composite PMI (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 52.7, Previous 53.5. UK private sector.
- 04:30 AM BRT – GBP Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 47.1, Previous 47.0. UK factories.
- 04:30 AM BRT – GBP Services PMI (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 53.4, Previous 54.2. UK services.
- 05:00 AM BRT – GBP BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Policy views.
Implication: European PMI data will influence demand for Brazil’s steel and soybean exports. Weak readings or hawkish ECB signals could reduce revenues, compounding U.S. tariff pressures and geopolitical tensions.
Other Countries
Mexico (11th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.00 trillion)
- 08:00 AM BRT – Economic Activity (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus -0.70%, Previous 1.30%. Annual growth.
- 08:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 1.6%, Previous 2.5%. Annual retail.
Implication: Mexico’s market data may reduce Mercosur trade volatility, but U.S. indicators will still sway the peso-real pair.
Canada
- 08:30 AM BRT – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.0%, Previous -0.1%. Housing prices.
Implication: Canadian data could signal commodity demand, impacting Brazil’s oil and agricultural exports.
Japan (3rd Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$4.10 trillion)
- All Day – Autumn Equinox Holiday: Markets closed.
- 20:30 PM BRT – JPY Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 50.2, Previous 49.7. Factory activity.
- 20:30 PM BRT – JPY Services PMI (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 53.1. Services health.
Implication: Japanese PMI could signal demand for Brazil’s steel and agricultural exports.
Australia
- 21:30 PM BRT – AUD Weighted mean CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.90%, Previous 2.80%. Trimmed inflation.
Implication: Australian CPI may influence Asia-Pacific commodity demand, affecting Brazil’s agricultural exports.
South Africa
- 9:07 AM BRT – ZAR Leading Indicators (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 111.70%. Economic leads.
Implication: South African data could affect emerging market sentiment and commodity flows to Brazil.
South Korea
- 17:00 PM BRT – KRW Consumer Confidence (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 111.4. Confidence gauge.
Implication: Korean confidence may signal tech and commodity demand, indirectly supporting Brazilian exports.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s Copom Minutes will clarify the path for Selic rate cuts, critical for business expansion amid high borrowing costs and a slowing recovery.
U.S. PMI and Fed speeches will drive global capital flows and commodity demand, while European PMIs shape export revenues.
Mexican retail and activity data will temper regional volatility, with Canadian and Asian indicators influencing trade partners. Geopolitical risks, including U.S. sanctions on Brazilian officials and export diversification, add layers to outlooks.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Official market reports confirm the Ibovespa index closed at 145,109 points on September 22, 2025, down 0.52%, surrendering gains despite favorable global conditions as domestic corporate drama took center stage. The retreat came just days after the index reached its all-time high of 146,399 points on September 19.
Brazilian stocks now trade less than 1% below that record peak, highlighting the market’s resilience amid political tensions with the United States, including U.S. sanctions on the wife of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and visa revocations for six Brazilian judicial officials.
Corporate turmoil dominated trading activity. Cosan plummeted 18.13% after announcing a massive R$10 billion equity offering that will significantly dilute existing shareholders.
The energy conglomerate’s surprise move to raise capital through two public offerings shocked investors, with anchor investors including BTG Pactual committing R$7.25 billion at R$5.00 per share.
Founder Rubens Ometto and family offices covered the rest, with plans for a follow-on offering of up to 2 billion shares in October. Meanwhile, aerospace manufacturer Embraer soared 4.63% following a landmark aircraft order from Latam Airlines.
The Chilean carrier signed for 24 E195-E2 jets worth $2.1 billion at list prices, with options for 50 additional aircraft, deliveries starting in late 2026.
Petrobras gained 1% as shareholders received their second dividend installment of R$0.45 per share. The September rally added 2.71% to the Ibovespa despite Monday’s decline.
Technical analysis shows the index trading above its 10-day moving average of 143,907 points but below the 5-day average of 145,226, with RSI at 71.3 indicating overbought conditions and daily volatility at 0.64%. Lower oil prices, with Brent at $66 per barrel due to oversupply concerns, added pressure.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
All three major U.S. indexes closed at fresh record highs as technology stocks led the way. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose modestly. The S&P 500 gained nearly half a percent, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped by more than two-thirds of a percent.
The rally was driven by Nvidia’s plans for a massive investment in OpenAI and by upbeat analyst forecasts for Apple. Small-caps also participated, lifting the Russell 2000 higher. Treasury yields edged up.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC index rose 1.31% to 62,004 points, with increased trading volumes reflecting investor focus on real fundamentals like stable inflation and an IMF-upgraded growth forecast.
The peso stabilized around 18.37 per dollar after three days of losses, bouncing from lows amid a steady dollar index near 97.
Top performers included Industrias Penoles, Megacable, Kimberly-Clark Mexico, Grupo Carso, and Coca-Cola Femsa, while decliners were Genomma Lab, Walmart de Mexico, Qualitas, and Cemex. Institutional buying targeted strong earnings and resilience, with no sudden ETF inflows.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
The S&P Merval surged 7.55% to 1,811,039 points, its largest one-day gain since April, driven by a last-minute U.S. lifeline including Federal Reserve swap lines and direct purchases from the Exchange Stabilization Fund ahead of a Milei-Trump meeting.
Country risk fell 351 basis points to 1,105 points. The peso’s blue rate was 1,505 per dollar (official at 1,410.24), narrowing the spread to 6.7%. The central bank sold $53 million in FX, its largest intervention since April.
Banks and energy stocks led gains (8-15%), with utilities and industrials lagging (1-5%). ETF inflows into Global X MSCI Argentina hit 1.24 million shares, up 6.85%. Technicals show relief-driven recovery, with sustainability tied to midterms and reforms.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The COLCAP index gained 0.72% to 1,871 points, up 41.55% year-to-date and hitting five-year highs, with market cap at 417 trillion pesos from foreign investment.
The peso, the world’s best performer in September, gained 1.8% to 3,850 per dollar, up 8.06% over 12 months. Gains were fueled by a 525 bps rate differential (9.25% vs. U.S. 4.00-4.25%) and stable commodities, with oil at $70/barrel despite 5% production drop to 746,000 bpd.
Consumer discretionary (+10.09% weekly) and materials (+7.74%) led, while energy lagged (-3.35%) on higher taxes. Inflation fell to 4.8% in June, GDP grew 2.7% in May. Technicals indicate upward momentum if differentials hold.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
The IPSA rose 1.22% to 9,116.93 points, driven by commodity and retail strength, with CLP 15 billion inflows into equity funds. Copper prices jumped 1.8%, boosting Codelco and Soquimich.
Top gainers: Vapores (+3.72%), Grupo Security (+2.93%), Falabella (+0.74%), Colbún (+0.71%), Mallplaza (+0.70%).
Decliners: Soquimich B (–2.79%), Embotelladora Andina B (–2.57%), Enel Americas (–2.05%), Enel Chile (–1.71%), Cencosud Shopping (–1.56%).
The peso held steady at 956 per dollar (range 954-958). Technicals: USD/CLP below 200-period MA, IPSA above 50-period average, support at 9,050/resistance 9,200. Markets eye central bank hold at 4.75%.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real strengthened to 5.33 per dollar on September 22, 2025, gaining ground despite escalating diplomatic tensions with the U.S., including sanctions under the Magnitsky Act on the wife of Justice Alexandre de Moraes linked to prosecutions of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
The currency has risen 13% year-to-date, one of the world’s best performers, buoyed by high 15% Selic rates creating a 450 bps differential with the Fed’s 4.00-4.25% range, strong commodity revenues like iron ore at $105/tonne, and Finance Minister Haddad’s push for fiscal discipline amid prior overspending of 70 billion reais.
Inflation at 5.1% remains above target, but a stronger real curbs import costs for fuel and food, though it may hurt exporters.
Technicals show the real trading below key resistance with elevated volumes from institutional repositioning, potential for further gains amid dollar weakness (DXY at 97.35).
Analysts note softening Chinese demand risks, but Central Bank credibility supports stability. Export diversification cushions U.S. trade declines from 50% tariffs.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin held steady at $112,877 on September 22, 2025, resilient amid a wild night that liquidated $1.8 billion in positions, primarily $1.65 billion in leveraged “long” bets by over 370,000 traders, triggered by a dip below $112,000 support during low-liquidity Asian hours.
Market cap stood at approximately $2 trillion (inferred from dominance and price), with 57% dominance. The Fed’s rate cut spurred $1.9 billion weekly inflows into digital asset funds, totaling $40.4 billion managed assets, though rising bond yields capped speculative boosts.
Institutional buying persisted, with BlackRock’s Bitcoin fund netting $246 million on September 19, cumulative $3.1 billion over ten days, contrasting retail deleveraging.
Technicals show Bitcoin range-bound $112,000–$113,500, with RSI at 50, testing critical support. U.S. PMI data today will sway crypto flows, while Brazil’s fintech remains cautious on domestic slowdown but eyes institutional trends.
Altcoins swung wildly: 0G +1,932% on airdrop, UXLINK -72% post-$11.3M hack, Avalanche +14% on VC news.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s commodity-driven economy faces challenges from high 15% Selic rates, geopolitical risks from U.S. sanctions and tariffs, and corporate dilutions like Cosan’s R$10 billion raise to halve debt and fund expansions in ethanol, rail, and gas.
The Selic forecast to 12.25% by 2026 offers hope for cheaper loans, easing expansion pauses, but core inflation at 4.83% (Dec 2025) and 4.29% (2026) above 3% target demands gradual cuts to avoid derailing recovery.
LATAM’s $2.1 billion Embraer order, enabling 35 new South American routes with 30% fuel savings, bolsters aerospace and tourism, offsetting U.S. trade declines via China/Argentina diversification supporting agribusiness and energy.
Today’s Copom Minutes (7:00 AM BRT), U.S. PMIs (9:45 AM BRT), and European PMIs (04:00 AM BRT) will shape outlooks for consumer, energy, and industrial sectors. Fed speeches may signal more easing, aiding Brazilian firms, but domestic political storms persist.
Key Developments
Corporate Shakeups: Cosan’s R$10 billion equity injection at R$5/share from BTG, Perfin, and Ometto family secures debt reduction and growth in Raízen, Rumo, Compass, restoring flexibility amid high rates.
Aerospace Boost: LATAM’s order for 24+50 Embraer E195-E2 jets ($2.1B firm) enhances regional connectivity, cuts emissions 30%, and drives Embraer’s 50% market share, powering South America’s travel rebound.
Selic Turning Point: Forecasts to 12.25% by 2026 signal relief for businesses, but sustained disinflation needed amid 5.1% inflation and cooled spending.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+2.44%
177,547.57
+2.44%
67,298.78
+0.88%
11,009.22
+0.50%
3,379,771
+2.98%
2,297.00
-0.19%
57,575.02
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 177,547.57 | +2.44% | +32.46% | 173,325.65 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.05 | -0.01% | -9.16% | 5.05 | 5.06 | 5.05 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | -0.36% | -11.45% | 5.80 | 5.78 | 5.77 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 96.04 | +2.09% | +40.18% | 94.07 | 96.47 | 94.88 | 3,023 |
| WTI | 88.13 | +1.50% | +35.07% | 86.83 | 88.67 | 87.32 | 29,671 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,130 | -0.42% | +21.67% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,075 | 24,072 |
| SILVER | 60.10 | +0.13% | +53.00% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 59.05 | 3,780 |
| LITHIUM | 69.00 | -0.12% | +58.73% | 69.08 | 69.65 | 68.95 | 261,058 |
| SOY | 1,241 | +0.67% | +23.42% | 1,233 | 1,245 | 1,236 | 11,012 |
| CORN | 484.75 | +4.92% | +21.64% | 462.00 | 486.00 | 483.00 | 16,464 |
| WHEAT | 703.50 | -0.32% | +30.16% | 705.75 | 708.50 | 702.25 | 4,106 |
| COFFEE | 318.05 | -4.19% | +5.54% | 331.95 | 324.60 | 313.35 | — |
| SUGAR | 14.75 | -0.87% | -9.17% | 14.88 | 14.94 | 14.67 | — |
| ORANGE JUICE | 147.50 | +2.57% | -56.17% | 143.80 | 150.50 | 140.55 | — |
| COTTON | 81.36 | +3.04% | +22.13% | 78.96 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 12,672 |
| BEEF | 219.20 | -3.30% | -3.45% | 226.68 | 222.55 | 218.83 | 22,518 |
| CATTLE | 336.15 | -3.83% | +1.40% | 349.55 | 344.00 | 335.00 | 11,864 |
| COCOA | 5,353 | -4.53% | -36.58% | 5,607 | 5,534 | 5,240 | — |
| PETR4 | 42.58 | +2.21% | +35.82% | 41.66 | 42.58 | — | — |
| VALE3 | 75.10 | +3.77% | +30.61% | 72.37 | 75.10 | — | — |
| SUZB3 | 42.66 | +2.47% | -16.78% | 41.63 | 42.69 | 41.65 | 4,974,100 |
| KLABIN | 17.93 | +1.93% | -2.74% | 17.59 | 18.00 | 17.64 | 4,305,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.96 | +1.53% | -12.41% | 13.75 | 14.01 | 13.71 | 4,319,100 |
| ABEV3 | 16.13 | +2.09% | +20.37% | 15.80 | 16.13 | — | — |
| ITUB4 | 42.90 | +0.87% | +26.25% | 42.53 | 42.98 | 42.27 | 21,968,600 |
| BBDC4 | 18.97 | +2.26% | +21.37% | 18.55 | 18.97 | — | — |
| BBAS3 | 21.09 | +1.01% | +6.03% | 20.88 | 21.09 | — | — |
| B3SA3 | 15.90 | +4.81% | +21.65% | 15.17 | 15.92 | 15.21 | 46,018,300 |
| WEGE3 | 46.74 | +10.05% | +13.12% | 42.47 | 47.06 | 44.80 | 34,056,700 |
| PRIO3 | 59.77 | +2.73% | +40.37% | 58.18 | 59.77 | — | — |
| RENT3 | 37.14 | +1.61% | +3.74% | 36.55 | 37.57 | 36.42 | 16,101,400 |
| AZZA3 | 17.81 | +1.89% | -50.51% | 17.48 | 17.81 | 17.06 | 1,753,800 |
| CSNA3 | 5.38 | +6.32% | -37.15% | 5.06 | 5.38 | — | — |
| GGBR4 | 24.06 | +2.43% | +42.28% | 23.49 | 24.06 | — | — |
| ENEV3 | 25.97 | +2.16% | +88.19% | 25.42 | 25.97 | — | — |
| LREN3 | 13.54 | +2.03% | -22.27% | 13.27 | 13.59 | 13.29 | 8,223,100 |
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