Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 20, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are set for a pivotal trading session today, shaped by a light domestic economic calendar and a robust lineup of international events that could ripple through global sentiment and Brazil’s markets.
Today’s economic agenda in Brazil lacks major scheduled releases, placing heightened focus on global developments. The absence of local data shifts attention to yesterday’s market reactions and the international slate, which includes key U.S. indicators like Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
These events matter because Brazil’s economy, heavily tied to exports and commodity prices, is sensitive to U.S. economic health, Federal Reserve signals, and global risk appetite.
With the Ibovespa dropping sharply yesterday and the real weakening, today’s U.S. data could either stabilize or deepen these trends, while political noise around tariffs and domestic sentiment adds further complexity.
In the U.S., the release of Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM, alongside the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, will provide insight into labor market strength and industrial activity—key for gauging U.S. demand for Brazilian goods.
The Fed Vice Chair Barr’s speech at 2:30 PM could hint at monetary policy direction, impacting the dollar and, by extension, the real. Crude Oil Inventories at 12:00 PM are critical for Brazil’s oil sector outlook, given its commodity-driven economy.
Europe’s German PPI at 2:00 AM and Bundesbank President Nagel’s speech at 11:00 AM could influence eurozone sentiment, affecting commodity prices and Brazil’s trade dynamics.
In Asia, Japan’s National Core CPI at 6:30 PM and Services PMI at 7:30 PM will signal inflationary pressures and service sector health, potentially swaying global commodity demand relevant to Brazil.
This global focus comes after a turbulent Wednesday, where the Ibovespa fell amid tariff fears and a strengthening dollar. Today’s outcomes will test Brazil’s market resilience.
Economic Agenda for February 20, 2025
Brazil and Latin América
- No data provided for Brazil or Latin America
The Américas
United States
- 08:30 AM – Continuing Jobless Claims (Cons: 1,870K, Prev: 1,850K)
- 08:30 AM – Initial Jobless Claims (Cons: 215K, Prev: 213K)
- 08:30 AM – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) (Cons: 19.4, Prev: 44.3)
- 08:30 AM – Philly Fed Employment (Feb) (Prev: 11.9)
- 10:00 AM – US Leading Index (MoM) (Jan) (Cons: -0.1%, Prev: -0.1%)
- 12:00 PM – Crude Oil Inventories (Cons: 3.200M, Prev: 4.070M)
- 12:00 PM – Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (Prev: 0.872M)
- 01:00 PM – 30-Year TIPS Auction (Prev: 2.055%)
- 02:30 PM – Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
- 04:30 PM – Fed’s Balance Sheet (Prev: 6,814B)
Canada
- 08:30 AM – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jan) (Cons: 0.1%, Prev: -0.1%)
- 08:30 AM – RMPI (MoM) (Jan) (Cons: 2.4%, Prev: 1.3%)
Europe
Germany
- 02:00 AM – German PPI (MoM) (Jan) (Act: -0.1%, Cons: 0.6%, Prev: -0.1%)
- 11:00 AM – German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Rest of the World
Japan
- 06:30 PM – National Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) (Cons: 3.1%, Prev: 3.0%)
- 07:30 PM – Services PMI (Feb) (Prev: 53.0)
Brazil’s Markets on Wednesday
Brazil’s financial markets faced a bruising session on February 19, 2025, as global and domestic pressures collided. The Ibovespa, Brazil’s benchmark stock index, dropped 0.95% to close at 127,308.80 points, shedding 1,243 points from its intraday low of 126,900.
This decline contrasted with Wall Street’s gains, driven by fears of U.S. tariffs under President Trump’s renewed push for 25% duties on autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals by April 2.
The B3 saw trading volume rise to R$18–20 billion, up from R$16 billion the previous day, reflecting heightened activity. Foreign investors pulled $15–20 million from the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, while the local BOVA11 ETF lost R$50 million, signaling widespread unease.
Currency Market
The U.S. dollar rose 0.65% against the Brazilian real on February 19, closing at R$5.72. This uptick trimmed the dollar’s year-to-date decline to 7.33%, bolstered by Trump’s tariff rhetoric and the Federal Reserve’s minutes, which held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% while noting inflation risks. The real’s retreat reflects Brazil’s vulnerability to trade war fears and a stronger dollar.
Read more…
U.S. Markets on Wednesday
Wall Street posted modest gains on February 19, 2025, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2% to 6,144.15, adding to its record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.2% to 44,627.59, and the Nasdaq composite edged up 0.1% to 20,056.25.
Tesla’s strength lifted the market, offsetting weakness in stocks like Celanese, which fell after warning of soft demand. Treasury yields eased slightly, while European indexes weakened.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Brent Crude futures climbed on February 19, reflecting supply disruption concerns. Prices continued to show resilience into February 20, with gains fueled by market defiance amid global uncertainties. Read more…
Gold Prices
Gold held near record highs on February 20, 2025, with spot prices firm as a safe-haven amid global uncertainty, underscoring its appeal in volatile times. Read more…
Crypto Prices
Cryptocurrencies showed volatility, with XRP and Litecoin surging on February 20, 2025, amid Brazil’s pioneering XRP ETF launch, shaking up market dynamics. Read more…
Companies and Markets
Carrefour Brasil surpassed forecasts with an adjusted net profit of R$1.7 billion in Q4 2024, highlighting operational strength. Read more…
GPA reported a R$1 billion loss amid restructuring challenges, reflecting ongoing pressures in retail. Read more…
XP Inc. posted strong Q4 2024 results, with record profitability and asset growth, reinforcing its financial services leadership. Read more…
Outlook
Today’s market direction hinges on U.S. labor and manufacturing data, oil inventory numbers, and Fed commentary, given Brazil’s lean domestic agenda. The Ibovespa’s drop below 128,000 points signals vulnerability, but commodity strength and corporate earnings could provide support. Global tariff fears and a firmer dollar may cap gains, while domestic investor sentiment watches political and economic cues closely.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
64,944.41
-0.07%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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