Brazil’s Early Count Leaves Big Regions Out
Published Sunday, 25 October 2026, 6:47 p.m. ET · Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official results file, data as of 6:47 p.m. ET
Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) had counted 15.4% of polling sections in the presidential runoff at 7:47 p.m. Brasília time (6:47 p.m. ET) on Sunday 25 October. Flávio Bolsonaro had 50.10% and Lula 49.90%, a gap of 36,775 votes, and the lead has already changed hands tonight.
Key Facts
- —Count Flávio Bolsonaro 50.10%, Lula 49.90%, 36,775 votes apart, with 15.4% of sections counted.
- —Missing Only 4.7% of Southeast sections are counted; the region holds about 41% of all sections.
- —Why Early counts follow which regions report first, so this snapshot is not a forecast.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 9% and Kalshi at 10% (Lula: 91% and 91%), as of 25 October, 7:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Live results
Follow Brazil’s runoff count on our results page
Official TSE numbers, state by state, as soon as the electoral court publishes them.
The Brazil election 2026 runoff is tight so far. Lula led by about 64,000 votes in the TSE file at 7:43 p.m. in Brasília, and Flávio Bolsonaro led by about 37,000 votes at 7:47 p.m., so the order can switch within minutes.
Our Brazil election results page updates with every official file. Our Brazil election polls tracker shows the survey picture.
In Plain English
- Runoff: the second round between the top two candidates, held because nobody passed 50% on 4 October.
- Polling section: one group of voting machines; the TSE counts progress in sections, not in voters.
- Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the left-wing president seeking another term; Flávio Bolsonaro is a conservative senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Which Regions Are Counted So Far
The count is uneven. The Southeast (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo) holds about 41% of Brazil’s polling sections but only 4.7% of them were counted.
The Northeast, with about 28% of sections, was 13.3% counted.By contrast, 38% of the North, 31% of the Centre-West and 25% of the South were in.Lula had 68% of the votes counted in the Northeast, 50% in the North, 47% in the Southeast, 42% in the Centre-West and 38% in the South.
What the First Round and 2022 Show
In the first round on 4 October, Flávio Bolsonaro finished first with 47.03% and Lula second with 45.16%, according to the TSE. Lula led in all nine Northeast states then, while Flávio led in all four Southeast states, all three Southern states and all four Centre-West units, including the Federal District, the federal unit that contains the capital Brasília.
In the 2022 runoff, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro 50.90% to 49.10%, the TSE’s final result. A close finish is therefore not new, but early numbers have little to say about the late ones.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, traders put Lula’s chance of winning the presidency at 63.5% at 6:49 p.m. ET on Sunday 25 October, with about US$208.6 million traded. Another Polymarket market priced Lula winning by less than 4 points at 55.0%.
These prices are bets, not polls and not results. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely.
We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 8.8% · Lula 90.9% (US$215 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 10% · Lula 90.6%
As of 25 October, 7:20 pm ET (23:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Brazil is a large market for US investors and exporters, and the result could affect trade and tariff talks with Washington. Markets in both countries are closed on Sunday, so the first price reaction comes on Monday 26 October.
Treat tonight’s numbers as a live snapshot. Check the live results page before drawing a conclusion.
What Is Not Known
It is not known how the Southeast and the Northeast will split once their sections are counted. The TSE had not declared a winner at the time of this snapshot.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is ahead in Brazil’s runoff count?
Flávio Bolsonaro had 50.10% and Lula 49.90% at 6:47 p.m. ET, with 15.4% of sections counted. The TSE had declared no winner.
Why can an early count mislead?
Regions report at different speeds, and each leans differently. A lead built on the regions that report first can shrink or grow as the rest arrive.
Sources: TSE, official runoff results, Polymarket, Brazil Presidential Election. Data as of 6:47 p.m. ET, Sunday 25 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff start time and results schedule. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.