Lula Edges Ahead in Brazil’s Resumed Count
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Sunday, 25 October, 6:45 p.m. ET · Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) results feed, Polymarket
Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is counting votes again in the Brazil election 2026 runoff, and at 6:44 p.m. ET (7:44 p.m. in Brasília) its official feed showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, on 50.05% of valid votes (votes for a candidate, excluding blank and spoiled ballots). Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, had 49.95%.
That is 8,348,409 votes to 8,331,464, with 13.35% of the country’s 499,248 polling stations counted. Our Brazil election results page tracks every update from the TSE.
Key Facts
- The count With 13.35% of polling stations counted, Lula has 50.05% of valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro 49.95% (6:44 p.m. ET).
- The gap The lead is 16,945 votes among 16.7 million counted; the TSE, Brazil’s electoral court, has not called the race.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a real-money betting market, priced a Lula win at 69.9% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 30.1% (6:44 p.m. ET).
- What is next The TSE feed updates every minute, so these figures are a snapshot; only the TSE declares the winner.
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every 20 minutes from 5 p.m. Brasília (4 p.m. ET).
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Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 8.8% · Lula 90.9% (US$215 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 10% · Lula 90.6%
As of 25 October, 7:20 pm ET (23:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What the Official Count Shows
The TSE results feed counted 66,646 of 499,248 polling stations at 7:44 p.m. in Brasília, or 13.35%. Those sections produced 16,679,873 valid votes, the votes that count towards each candidate’s percentage.
Lula led by 16,945 votes, a margin of 0.10 percentage points. The feed does not declare a winner and shows no projection.
How the Count Came Back
The TSE had paused its national count earlier on Sunday, as we reported earlier. By 7:41 p.m. in Brasília, the capital, the feed was again publishing totals.
The numbers are moving fast. The share of polling stations counted rose from 11.39% to 13.35% in about three minutes, and Lula’s lead shrank from 84,324 votes to 16,945.
Why Early Counts Can Mislead
An early count reflects the polling stations that report first, not a random sample of the country. A lead of 0.10 percentage points at 13% counted can widen, narrow or reverse as other regions come in.
Brazil is large and varied, and its states do not report at the same speed. For that reason the percentage of sections counted matters as much as the candidates’ shares.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market where traders bet real money on outcomes, priced a Lula win at 69.9% and a Flávio Bolsonaro win at 30.1% at 6:44 p.m. ET. Together the two prices add to about 100%.
More than US$208 million has been traded on that market. A separate Polymarket market on the margin of victory priced a Lula win by less than 4 points at 57.5%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
A price of 70 cents means an implied 70% chance, but it is a bet and not an official forecast. Our Brazil election odds page follows the prices live.
What It Means for US Readers
Brazilian markets are closed on Sunday and trade again on Monday, 26 October. US investors who hold Brazilian shares through American depositary receipts (ADRs), which are US-listed certificates of foreign stocks, will see the first reaction in New York trading hours.
The real, Brazil’s currency, and the country’s interest-rate outlook depend on who wins, so the final count matters more than any early reading. Until the TSE finishes, the lead can still change.
What Is Not Known
The TSE has not said when it expects to publish a result, and the feed does not show which states make up the 13.35% counted so far. We also do not know how turnout compares with the first round.
We will update this report as the TSE publishes more. Check the results page for the latest official figures.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s runoff count?
At 6:44 p.m. ET, with 13.35% of polling stations counted, Lula had 50.05% of valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro 49.95%, according to the TSE results feed. The figures change every minute.
Who declares the winner of Brazil’s runoff?
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) publishes the official results. Prediction-market prices and early counts are not official outcomes.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official results feed, resultados.tse.jus.br (data timestamp 7:44 p.m. Brasília); Polymarket public market data (6:44 p.m. ET).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief