BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Sunday, 25 October, 7:28 p.m. ET · Updated 7:45 p.m. ET · Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) results feed; Polymarket, a prediction market
Lula, Brazil’s president, leads the official count of the runoff, the second-round vote between the top two candidates, in the Brazil election 2026 with 50.95% of valid votes (votes for a candidate, excluding blank and spoiled ballots). Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has 49.05%, with 71.24% of polling stations counted at 7:45 p.m. ET.
That is 44,829,671 votes to 43,153,368, a gap of 1,676,303, according to the electoral court (TSE). Our live map on the Brazil election results page shows each state’s counted share and both candidates’ percentages as you hover over it.
Key Facts
- The count With 71.24% of polling stations counted, Lula has 50.95% of valid votes and Flávio 49.05% (7:45 p.m. ET).
- The gap Lula leads by 1,676,303 votes; the TSE has not called the race.
- Big states São Paulo is 57.9% counted, Rio de Janeiro 22.4% and Minas Gerais 65.45%; together they hold about 40% of voters.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a real-money betting market, priced a Lula win at 97.0% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 3.0% (7:45 p.m. ET).
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every 20 minutes from 5 p.m. Brasília (4 p.m. ET).
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Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 8.8% · Lula 90.9% (US$215 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 5.3% · Lula 94.9%
As of 25 October, 7:40 pm ET (23:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Where the Count Stands
At 7:38 p.m. ET, with 63.38% counted, Lula led by 1,004,928 votes. Now Lula leads by 1,676,303 votes at 71.24% counted, so the lead has widened.
Lula leads in all nine states of the Northeast, Brazil’s poorer region, including Bahia (71.24%, 56% counted) and Pernambuco (70.06%, 76% counted). Flávio leads in Paraná (62.64%, 98% counted) and Rio Grande do Sul (57.97%, 84% counted).
Why the Big States Matter
São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro hold about 40% of Brazil’s 158.7 million registered voters. São Paulo is 57.9% counted, Rio de Janeiro 22.4% and Minas Gerais 65.45%.
So far Flávio leads in São Paulo (55.78%) and Flávio in Rio (53.42%). Because much of their vote is still to come, the gap can move in either direction.
Minas Gerais
Minas Gerais, the second-largest state, holds about 10% of Brazil’s voters and is 65.45% counted. Lula leads there by 2,159 votes, or 50.01% to 49.99%, so it is effectively level.
Lula won the state with 50.2% in the 2022 runoff. In this year’s first round, Flávio took 48.2% there and Lula 43.3%.
By camp, the 14 states and the Federal District that Flávio won in the first round hold 66.3% of voters and are 67.0% counted; he leads in 14 of those 15 areas. The 12 states Lula won hold 33.7% of voters and are 75.7% counted; Lula leads in 12 of the 12.
What Else Is Happening
Voting ran until 6 p.m. ET (7 p.m. in Brasília) after Cristiano Zanin, a justice of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), ordered an extension nationwide, as we reported earlier. Lula’s coalition had complained of too few buses in Salvador, Feira de Santana and Lauro de Freitas in Bahia state.
We have no ruling on any challenge to the vote.
Votes cast abroad are being counted too: with 891 of 1,351 overseas sections counted, Lula has 58.66% and Flávio 41.34%, according to the TSE.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market where traders bet real money on outcomes, priced a Lula win at 97.0% and a Flávio Bolsonaro win at 3.0% at 7:45 p.m. ET.
More than US$228 million has been traded on that market. The prices are bets, not polls, and they move as each state reports.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Our Brazil election odds page follows the prices live.
What It Means for US Readers
Brazil’s stock exchange reopens on Monday, 26 October, at 9 a.m. ET, before the New York open. US investors who hold Brazilian shares through American depositary receipts (ADRs), US-listed certificates of foreign stocks, can see early moves in pre-market trading.
What Is Not Known
The TSE has not said when it expects to publish a final result. We do not know how the uncounted votes in São Paulo, Rio and Minas Gerais will split.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s runoff count?
At 7:45 p.m. ET, with 71.24% of polling stations counted, Lula had 50.95% of valid votes and Flávio 49.05%, according to the TSE results feed. The figures change every minute.
Who declares the winner of Brazil’s runoff?
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) publishes the official results. Early counts and prediction-market prices are not official outcomes.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) official results feed, resultados.tse.jus.br (data timestamp 7:45 p.m. ET); Polymarket public market data (7:45 p.m. ET).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief