BRAZIL · WEATHER AND SAFETY
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil votes in a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026.
- —Why it matters Rain, hail and gusts can disrupt roads and power in popular southern travel areas.
- —Why now A red storm warning covers southern Brazil on Saturday 24 October, the day before the vote.
- —What happened Brazil’s weather institute flagged storms and hail as a cold front moves north.
- —The numbers Red zone: over 100 mm (3.9 in) of rain a day, gusts above 100 km/h.
- —What it means for you Visitors in Foz do Iguaçu and Curitiba should check local alerts first.
- —Still open How much damage the storms cause, and whether rain affects voting on Sunday.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Read our Brazil election 2026 runoff guide →
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come · Brazil election poll data (CSV)
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79.5% · Lula 20.5% (US$194 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 24 October, 5:20 am ET (10:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil’s national weather institute, INMET, issued a red storm warning for parts of the south on Saturday 24 October 2026, the day before the presidential runoff. The red zone covers the centre, south and south-west of Paraná, the north, centre and west of Santa Catarina and the northwest of Rio Grande do Sul, including Foz do Iguaçu, the Brazilian gateway to Iguaçu Falls.
For US readers the practical risk is travel and safety, because INMET warns of more than 100 millimetres (3.9 inches) of rain in a day, gusts above 100 km/h (62 mph) and hail in the red zone. A cold front then pushes north through São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, so rain stays in the forecast for runoff day on Sunday.
The vote itself is covered in our runoff explainer, which sets out Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro. This piece covers only the weather, which is forecast to be wet in the south and south-east and hot and dry in the north and north-east.
In plain English
- INMET is Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology, the official forecaster.
- Red warning is the top of its three storm levels, called “great danger”, above orange and yellow.
- Runoff is the second round of the presidential election, held on Sunday 25 October.
- Cold front is the edge of a colder air mass, which brings storms and then a sharp drop in temperature.
Where the Red Storm Warning Applies
INMET’s red warning for Saturday covers the centre, south and south-west of Paraná, the north, centre and west of Santa Catarina and the north-west of Rio Grande do Sul. Cities named by INMET include Foz do Iguaçu, Guarapuava, Pato Branco, Chapecó, São Miguel do Oeste, Concórdia, Erechim and Frederico Westphalen.
INMET’s live warnings feed lists the red level from 06:00 to 21:00 on Saturday. It means rain above 60 mm an hour (2.4 inches) or 100 mm a day, winds above 100 km/h and hail.
INMET lists the risks as damage to buildings, power cuts, crop losses, fallen trees, flooded streets and trouble on the roads. A wider orange warning, one step lower, covers the rest of Paraná and Santa Catarina, northern Rio Grande do Sul and large parts of São Paulo state, including the capital and the coast.
Yellow warnings, the lowest level, cover Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte on Saturday, with isolated storms expected. The quoted warning times and areas come from INMET’s forecast note of 23 October and its live feed on Saturday morning.
Heavy Rain in Curitiba and the South
The g1 news site, citing the Paraná weather agency Simepar, expects rain all day Saturday in Curitiba, heaviest in the afternoon, with up to 70 mm (2.8 inches). Local totals in Paraná could reach 150 mm (5.9 inches), it adds, with temperatures in Curitiba between 17°C and 20°C (63°F to 68°F).
Simepar says deepening low pressure and a forming cold front favour storms with lightning, strong wind and hail, with the worst on Saturday. On Sunday the rain shifts towards São Paulo but continues in Paraná, mostly in the north and east.
Storms already hit Paraná on Friday 23 October, before the red warning began. According to g1, the utility Copel counted about 31,800 properties without power in the north of the state, and strong wind tore the roofs off two schools in Barracão, in the south-west.
The damage in Barracão forced ten polling sections, covering about 3,200 voters, to move to a nearby community centre for Sunday’s vote. Civil defence recorded six storm calls in Barracão and no homeless residents, g1 reports.
After the front passes, INMET expects a sharp cooling. Curitiba should see 11°C to 20°C (52°F to 68°F) on Sunday and 8°C to 18°C (46°F to 64°F) on Monday.
Florianópolis should reach only 19°C (66°F) on Sunday and 16°C (61°F) on Monday, while Porto Alegre sees 15°C to 18°C (59°F to 64°F) on Sunday. Our earlier story on the Iguaçu Falls walkway closure shows how quickly rivers in this region can rise after heavy rain.
Runoff Day Forecast Across Brazil
For Sunday, INMET has a yellow storm warning covering all of São Paulo state, Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo and most of Minas Gerais. The same level applies to Mato Grosso do Sul, southern Mato Grosso and central-southern Goiás, including the cities of Cuiabá, Goiânia and Campo Grande.
In São Paulo city INMET forecasts 16°C to 21°C (61°F to 70°F) on Sunday, with rain and thunder through the day. Rio’s city warning system, Alerta Rio, expects overcast skies, showers with lightning and gusts up to 76 km/h (47 mph), with 18°C to 28°C (64°F to 82°F), according to Agência Brasil on Friday evening.
Cold, dry air then moves in from the south on Sunday and Monday, calming the weather in the south and in parts of the centre-west. A new band of moisture could bring rain on Monday to Amazonas, Pará, northern Mato Grosso and Goiás, Tocantins, southern Maranhão and Piauí, and parts of Bahia and Minas Gerais.
While the south is soaked, INMET says the north and north-east stay hot and dry through the weekend. Teresina in Piauí could reach 39°C (102°F) on Saturday and 40°C (104°F) on Sunday, the hottest capital on runoff day.
Boa Vista and Palmas are forecast near 37°C (99°F) on Sunday. INMET has a yellow warning for low humidity on Saturday in Piauí, parts of Ceará, Pernambuco, Paraíba, Rio Grande do Norte and Bahia, and it advises drinking plenty of fluids and avoiding hard exercise at the driest hours.
What It Means for US Readers
Visitors in Foz do Iguaçu, Curitiba and western Santa Catarina are in or next to the red zone on Saturday, so outdoor plans, drives on rural roads and river or waterfall visits carry more risk than usual. Check the state civil defence alerts, which are the local emergency agencies, and your airline or tour operator before travelling.
In São Paulo and Rio, Sunday rain may slow getting around while residents head to their polling places. Our guides to São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro cover getting around, and our earlier São Paulo storm report shows what a heavy downpour does to the city.
For longer stays, our Brazil Explained and Brazil security and crime guide set out how to plan for emergencies. Anyone with a flight to or from the south should confirm it directly with the airline, because this article does not cover airport operations.
What Is Not Known
No source we reviewed reports damage, injuries or deaths from Saturday’s red-warning storms so far. The Saturday figures are forecasts and warning thresholds, not measured rainfall.
INMET’s forecast runs only to Monday 26 October, so it is unclear how long the colder air will last in the south. The institute also says the Monday moisture band is still being monitored.
Beyond the Barracão move reported by g1, we did not find a statement from Brazil’s electoral court on whether weather will change voting arrangements on Sunday. INMET may also revise its warnings during the weekend, so the latest version on its site takes priority.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a red storm warning in Brazil?
It is the highest of INMET’s three storm levels, called great danger. It signals over 100 mm of rain a day, winds above 100 km/h and hail.
Which areas have the red warning on Saturday?
Parts of Paraná, Santa Catarina and north-west Rio Grande do Sul, including Foz do Iguaçu, Chapecó and Erechim. The warning runs from 06:00 to 21:00 on Saturday 24 October.
Will it rain on runoff day, Sunday 25 October?
INMET forecasts rain and storms across São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and much of the south-east, with yellow warnings. The south turns colder, while the north and north-east stay hot and dry.
Is it safe to visit southern Brazil this weekend?
Heavy rain, hail and strong gusts can cause power cuts, flooding and road problems in the red and orange zones. Check local civil defence alerts and confirm travel plans before moving around.
Which Brazilian city is forecast to be hottest?
Teresina in Piauí is forecast to reach 40°C (104°F) on Sunday. It sits in the hot and dry north-east.
Sources: INMET forecast note for 24 to 26 October 2026, posted 23 October; INMET active warnings feed, read 24 October 2026; g1 Paraná, 24 October 2026; g1 Paraná, power cuts, 23 October 2026; g1 Paraná, Barracão schools, 23 October 2026; Agência Brasil, 23 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief