BRAZIL · TRADE
Key Facts
- —What is happening Brazil expects a written US proposal on tariffs in November, after Lula won a fourth term on Sunday, 25 October. Washington has not published the document or confirmed a date.
- —Why it matters A 25% US duty on certain Brazilian goods, stacked with a 12.5% charge to reach 37.5% on some, taxes exports from Latin America’s largest economy entering the US market.
- —The numbers The two July measures cover about 3,985 products worth US$10.8 billion. Brazil’s exports to the US fell 6.5% to US$27.5 billion from January to September.
- —Who is who Trade Minister Márcio Elias Rosa leads Brazil’s talks, with Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer leads for Washington.
- —What to watch The US document due in November, whether it names ethanol, big tech or rare earths, and any cut or exclusion before Lula’s 5 January 2027 inauguration.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you US importers of Brazilian sugar, wood, fish and furniture still pay the extra duties, while coffee, beef and orange juice stay exempt. No cut has been announced.
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Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
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Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
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Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
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Brazil’s trade team expects a written US tariff proposal in November. Duties of up to 37.5% remain in force after Lula’s fourth-term win.
A written US tariff offer is expected in November, after Lula won a fourth term in Brazil on Sunday, 25 October. Trade Minister Márcio Elias Rosa said on Thursday, 8 October, that the government expects the proposal then.
The duties matter to US readers because American importers pay them at the border. USTR cited six problem areas, among them digital trade, ethanol access, intellectual property and illegal deforestation.
In Plain English
- Section 301: a US trade law that lets the government tax imports from a country it accuses of unfair practices.
- USTR: the Office of the US Trade Representative, the White House trade negotiator led by Jamieson Greer.
- Working group: a joint team of officials from both countries that drafts a possible trade deal.
- CNI and CNA: Brazil’s national industry federation and its farm confederation, which both estimate tariff damage.
What Washington Has Imposed
USTR announced a 25% Section 301 tariff on certain Brazilian goods on Wednesday, 15 July. The Federal Register notice of 20 July applies it to goods entered from Wednesday, 22 July.
A second Section 301 action, on forced-labour import bans, added 12.5% from Friday, 24 July, the Federal Register says. Where both apply the total is 37.5%, Brazilian outlets report.
Coffee, beef, orange juice, aircraft parts and oil and gas products were left out, Movimento Econômico reported. Sugar faces the 25% duty, fish the 12.5% charge and some wood, fats and oils both, Sou Agro reported.
How Much Trade Is at Stake
The CNI estimates that the two July measures cover 3,985 products worth US$10.8 billion in exports, Folhapress reported. The finance ministry says the US took about 11% of Brazil’s exports in 2025.
Amcham Brasil, the American Chamber of Commerce in Brazil, counts about US$27.5 billion of exports to the US from January to September. That is 6.5% less than a year earlier, Canal Rural reported.
Goods under the highest surcharges, 25% or 37.5%, fell 25.4%, or about US$1.4 billion, Amcham said. Farm and livestock exports to the US fell 17.8%, while sales to other markets rose 8.9%.
The CNA estimates a direct farm cost of 4.6 billion reais a year (about US$0.9 billion; 4.995 reais per US$1, 26 October). It says about 36.5% of Brazil’s farm exports to the US are directly affected.
Where the Talks Stand
Lula and Trump spoke by phone on Friday, 21 August, Folhapress reported. On Wednesday, 30 September, Rosa and Mauro Vieira, the foreign minister, met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Milwaukee.
The three agreed to set up a working group on a possible deal covering tariff and non-tariff issues, InfoMoney reported. Brazil’s foreign ministry called the meeting constructive, according to Portuguese broadcaster RTP.
Greer said the US has drafted several measures and that the election limits flexibility, O Estado de S.Paulo reported. Greer also rejected Brazil’s request to suspend the tariffs during talks, Diário do Centro do Mundo reported, citing UOL.
Rosa said on 8 October that Brazil will not make the first offer, because the tariffs came from Washington. He said the election would stay off the table, SBT News reported.
What Each Side Wants
Brazil wants all the extra duties removed, and first wants to widen the list of excluded products, InfoMoney reported. Folha de S.Paulo reported in August that Brazil offered to cut import tariffs on about 300 products, which Washington called insufficient.
Brazil expects the US list to cover big-tech rules, industrial goods, electronics, chemicals and ethanol, Diário do Centro do Mundo reported. The same report says Washington also wants rare earth mining and refining in Brazil.
Brazil charges an 18% import tariff on US ethanol, Nova Cana reported in July. Rosa said then that Lula had ordered ethanol kept off the table unless sugar is included.
Rare Earths Give the US a Stake
USA Rare Earth, a US firm, closed its purchase of Serra Verde’s parent on Friday, 4 September, Poder360 reported. The deal is worth about US$2.8 billion, including US$300 million in cash and 126.8 million shares.
The US Department of War announced US$750 million on 24 August for a vehicle that will buy Serra Verde’s output, Poder360 reported. Lula signed a critical minerals policy on 16 September that favours processing in Brazil, SBT News reported.
What Changed After the Vote
Washington signalled willingness to reopen talks on the 37.5% duties after the election, Brazilian government sources told Folha de S.Paulo. Brasil 247 reported this on Monday, 26 October, and said the White House had not officially commented on the result.
The US ambassador nominee, Daniel Perez, still needs Brazil’s formal approval, which Folha expects by the end of the year. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, re-elected on Sunday, took part in the earlier tariff talks, NC News reported.
What It Means for US Readers
US importers of Brazilian sugar, fish, wood, footwear, furniture and textiles may keep paying the extra duties until a deal is signed. Coffee, beef and orange juice remain exempt, so those imports do not pay the 25% duty.
A deal on ethanol, digital rules or rare earths would touch US ethanol exporters, tech platforms and miners. No cut has been announced, and no sector or deadline is fixed, Sou Agro reported on 4 October.
Earlier reports cover which Brazilian exports the tariff hits, the US$3.7 billion export-relief package and the WTO complaint. More on the country is on the Brazil hub page.
What Is Not Known
The US document has not been published, and no date beyond “November” has been given. Its contents, including any ethanol, tech or minerals demands, are unknown.
The Folha report rests on unnamed Brazilian government sources, and Washington has not confirmed it. The CNI, Amcham and CNA figures are single estimates from Brazilian outlets.
What Comes Next
The US document is due in November, and Lula takes office on Tuesday, 5 January 2027. Greer would try for a deal by December, Diário do Centro do Mundo reported, but Rosa said that deadline faces difficulties.
A proposal would start talks, not end them, and it would not cut any tariff by itself. Rosa said in July that Brazil would not hesitate to use its Reciprocity Law, Correio Braziliense reported, so retaliation stays possible.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the US tariffs on Brazil?
A 25% Section 301 duty has applied to certain goods since 22 July. A 12.5% forced-labour duty since 24 July can stack on top to reach 37.5%.
When will the US send its tariff proposal?
Brazil’s trade minister expects it in November. The US has not announced a date.
Will Lula’s win change the tariff talks?
Greer signalled before the vote that talks would advance afterwards, InfoMoney reported. No change has been announced, and the White House had not formally commented, according to Folha.
Which Brazilian goods are hit by the duties?
Sugar, fish, wood, footwear, furniture and textiles are among them, Brazilian outlets report. Coffee, beef, orange juice and aircraft parts are exempt.
Why does the United States want Brazil’s rare earths?
Brazil holds the world’s second-largest reserves, estimated at 21 million tonnes, SBT News reported. A US company now owns the Serra Verde mine, with US government funding behind its output.
Sources: USTR, Section 301 action on Brazil, 15 July; Federal Register, Brazil action, 20 July; Federal Register, forced-labour action, 28 July; Correio Braziliense, July; Poder360, inauguration date; InfoMoney, 2 October; SBT News, 8 October; Diário do Centro do Mundo, 1 October; RTP, 1 October; Sou Agro, 4 October; Canal Rural, 22 July; Canal Rural (Amcham data), 10 October; Movimento Econômico, 16 July; Diário do Comércio (Folhapress), 31 August; Nova Cana, 8 July; Poder360, 4 September; SBT News, 26 October; Brasil 247, 26 October; NC News, 25 October (all accessed 26 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief