Brazil Poll Has Flávio 50.5%, Lula 49.5%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 23 October, 12:57 PM ET · Source: Ipespe/Abrapel
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- What happened On Friday 23 October, the Ipespe/Abrapel polling group released a new survey of the Lula–Flávio runoff.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 50.5% of valid votes and Lula 49.5%, with a 2.6-point margin of error.
- What changed Six days earlier the same pollster had Flávio at 51.2% and Lula at 48.8%, so the gap narrowed.
- Fieldwork 1,500 voters were interviewed by telephone on 20 to 22 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.3% chance of winning the runoff (Friday 23 October, 12:55 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 76% and Kalshi at 76% (Lula: 24% and 25%), as of 23 October, 1:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Read our Brazil election 2026 runoff guide →
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Who will win: Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · Brazil election poll data (CSV) · All election stories
A new Ipespe/Abrapel poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro, ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 50.5% to 49.5% of valid votes. The survey was released on Friday 23 October, and the one-point gap is a technical tie ahead of the Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October.
Lula, the leftist incumbent, gained 0.7 points on the same pollster’s survey of 17 October, while Flávio lost 0.7. Our Brazil election polls tracker lists every runoff survey so readers can compare the institutes.
What the Ipespe/Abrapel Poll Found
Ipespe interviewed 1,500 voters by telephone on 20, 21 and 22 October, Transmissão Política reported. The margin of error is 2.6 percentage points up or down, at a confidence level of about 95%.
The survey is registered with the TSE as BR-04350/2026, Exame reported. Blank and null answers stood at 3% and undecided voters at 2%.
Valid votes leave out blank ballots, spoiled ballots and undecided voters. Pollsters publish that figure because it matches how Brazil's electoral court (TSE) will count the real result.
With a 2.6-point margin on each number, a one-point gap cannot separate the candidates. Either one could be ahead among all voters.
How the Gap Has Moved in a Week
On 17 October, Ipespe/Abrapel had Flávio at 51.2% and Lula at 48.8% of valid votes, Poder360 reported. That survey was taken on 13 to 15 October, and the lead then was 2.4 points.
A week before that, the same pollster had Flávio at 52.7% and Lula at 47.3%, a lead of 5.4 points, Seu Dinheiro reported. Over three surveys the gap has shrunk by more than four points.
One pollster's trend is not proof of a national shift. Each institute uses its own method, so surveys are best read together.
What It Means for US Readers
Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and a major trade partner of the United States. Brazilian stocks, the real and US-listed shares of Brazilian companies can swing sharply until the result is known.
A one-point gap means neither candidate is a safe bet, which is why investors are watching each new survey closely. The winner will shape Brazil's ties with Washington on trade, energy and security for four years.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.3% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 23.5% (Friday 23 October, 12:55 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$192.7 million in total trades.
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC, also lists Brazil runoff contracts. These are bets, not polls, and prices can move within minutes of a new survey.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.1% · Lula 23.5% (US$193 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 76% · Lula 25%
As of 23 October, 1:20 pm ET (18:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
About 2% of voters were undecided and 3% planned to vote blank or null, Exame reported, and it is not known how the undecided will split. It is also unclear whether the one-point move is a real shift or noise inside the margin of error.
Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result. Turnout on Sunday 25 October will decide the outcome.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from Ipespe/Abrapel?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads by one point, with 50.5% of valid votes against 49.5% for Lula. The gap sits well inside the 2.6-point margin of error.
What is the margin of error of the Ipespe/Abrapel poll?
It is 2.6 percentage points up or down, at about 95% confidence. The survey reached 1,500 voters by telephone on 20 to 22 October.
How did this poll change from a week ago?
Flávio fell from 51.2% to 50.5% of valid votes, and Lula rose from 48.8% to 49.5%. The gap narrowed from 2.4 points to 1 point.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner will be president for a four-year term.
What are valid votes in a Brazilian poll?
Valid votes leave out blank ballots, spoiled ballots and undecided voters. They match how Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) reports results.
Sources: Transmissão Política, 23 October 2026; Poder360, 17 October 2026; Seu Dinheiro, 17 October 2026; Exame, 23 October 2026; Polymarket and Kalshi, 23 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief