Gerp Poll Has Flávio 52%, Lula 48% in Runoff
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 16 October, 5:00 p.m. ET · Source: Gerp poll, via Exame and Jovem Pan
Key Facts
- —The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro 52% and Lula 48% of valid votes in the Gerp poll published on Friday, 16 October; 50% to 45% of total votes.
- —What changed Gerp’s previous poll, published 13 October, had Flávio ahead 55% to 45% of valid votes, so his lead fell from ten points to four.
- —Margin of error 2 percentage points at a 95.55% confidence level, TSE registration BR-05187/2026.
- —Fieldwork 2,400 voters interviewed by computer-assisted telephone calls on 14, 15 and 16 October.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (16 October, 7:17 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 77% (Lula: 23% and 22%), as of 16 October, 7:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Still open Whether other pollsters move toward a four-point Flávio lead before 25 October.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · All election stories
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.6% · Lula 22.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 22%
As of 16 October, 7:20 pm ET (00:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, by 52% to 48% of valid votes in a new poll from the Gerp institute, published on Friday, 16 October at 5:00 p.m. ET. The poll lands in the final stretch of the Brazil election 2026, with the runoff on Sunday, 25 October.
Gerp’s previous survey, published on 13 October, had Flávio at 55% to 45%, so his lead has narrowed from ten points to four. Every survey is listed in our Brazil election polls tracker.
What the Gerp Poll Found
Gerp interviewed 2,400 voters by computer-assisted telephone calls on 14, 15 and 16 October, Exame reported. The survey has a margin of error of 2 percentage points at a 95.55% confidence level and is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-05187/2026.
Among all voters, Flávio has 50% and Lula 45%, with 3% undecided and 2% saying they would vote for neither, Jovem Pan reported. Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, which is how the electoral court reports results.
Lead Narrows From Ten Points to Four
Gerp’s earlier poll, published on 13 October, gave Flávio 55% and Lula 45% of valid votes, Jornal Opção reported. In total votes, Flávio fell from 53% to 50% and Lula rose from 44% to 45%, according to Jovem Pan.
Gerp also found that 49% of voters reject Lula and 46% reject Flávio, and that 57% expect Flávio to win against 36% for Lula, regardless of whom they back, according to Jovem Pan and Exame. Exame headlined the poll as the one that came closest to the first-round result, a claim we have not checked against Gerp’s own data.
Other pollsters show a closer race. A CNT/MDA poll published the same Friday had Flávio at 50.5% to 49.5%, and a PoderData/Aya poll put the two level at 50%.
What It Means for US Readers
Polls that disagree by several points keep Brazilian stocks, the real and US-listed shares of Brazilian companies sensitive to each new survey until 25 October. Our tracker lets you compare pollsters in one place.
For US trade and politics, the winner sets Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. A four-point gap from one pollster, with others showing a tie, leaves both outcomes open.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (16 October, 7:17 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$184.9 million in total bets, and we track it on our Brazil election odds page.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
We have not seen the full questionnaire or the registry filing, only the figures published by Exame and Jovem Pan.
It is also not known how the other pollsters will move before the vote. A poll measures opinion on the days of fieldwork and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from Gerp?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 52% to 48% of valid votes. The Gerp poll was published on Friday, 16 October.
How did the Gerp poll change this week?
Gerp’s 13 October poll had Flávio ahead 55% to 45% of valid votes. His lead has narrowed from ten points to four.
What is the margin of error?
The margin of error is 2 percentage points at a 95.55% confidence level. Gerp interviewed 2,400 voters by telephone on 14 to 16 October.
What are valid votes?
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots. The electoral court reports results this way, so pollsters publish it too.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday, 25 October, nine days after this poll was published. The winner serves a four-year term as president.
Sources: Exame (Gerp), 16 October 2026; Jovem Pan (Gerp), 16 October 2026; Jornal Opção (Gerp, 13 October).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief