França Poll Has Flávio 50.8%, Lula 49.2%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Tuesday, 20 October, 5:35 p.m. ET · Source: Instituto França, registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-07896/2026
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Tuesday 20 October, the polling institute Instituto França released a runoff survey showing a technical tie.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 50.8% of valid votes and Lula 49.2%, while raw totals read 40.95% to 39.65%, with a 1.8-point margin of error.
- Fieldwork Instituto França interviewed 3,000 voters nationwide from 16 to 20 October, at a 95% confidence level.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (20 October, 5:18 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 20%), as of 20 October, 5:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open We found no earlier like-for-like runoff poll from this institute, so the direction of change is unknown.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · Brazil Election Data Room · All election stories
A new poll from Instituto França puts Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, by 50.8% to 49.2% of valid votes. The survey was released on Tuesday 20 October, five days before the Brazil election 2026 decides the presidency.
The 1.6-point gap sits inside the 1.8-point margin of error, so the Brazil election polls tracker counts it as a technical tie. The vote on Sunday 25 October matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington; see the Brazil runoff date page for the schedule.
What the França Runoff Poll Found
Instituto França interviewed 3,000 voters across all 27 federative units between 16 and 20 October, Brasil 247 reported. The survey has a 1.8-point margin of error at a 95% confidence level and TSE registration BR-07896/2026, according to Poder360.
In raw totals, Flávio Bolsonaro has 40.95% and Lula 39.65%, with 10.56% voting blank, null or for neither and 8.84% undecided, Poder360 reported. Once those answers are set aside, the split becomes 50.8% to 49.2% in Flávio’s favour.
How Valid Votes and Technical Ties Work
Brazilian election results are reported as valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters publish that figure to match what the electoral authority will announce, while the raw total counts every voter interviewed.
A technical tie means the gap is no larger than chance alone could produce in a sample of this size. With a 1.8-point margin of error on each number, this poll cannot separate the two candidates.
Where This Poll Sits Among Others
Instituto França is one of several smaller pollsters publishing runoff numbers this week, and its result is closer than some. Earlier on Tuesday, our reports on the Alfa poll and the Gerp poll showed Flávio ahead by 3 and 6 points in valid votes.
Each institute uses its own method, sample and timing, so the numbers are not directly comparable. The full poll tracker lists every survey side by side.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean price swings until the result is known. One poll from one institute is a snapshot of opinion, not a forecast.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. A 1.6-point gap inside the margin of error means neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 21.5% (20 October, 5:18 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$189.2 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them. See our Brazil election odds page for both Polymarket and Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the CFTC.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78.2% · Lula 21.5% (US$189 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 20%
As of 20 October, 5:20 pm ET (22:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
We could not find an earlier like-for-like runoff poll from Instituto França, so it is unknown whether this result is a shift or the institute’s usual reading. Outlets differ on the exact release time, so we give only the date.
It is not known how many undecided voters will turn out on 25 October, or which way they will go. Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from Instituto França?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 50.8% to 49.2% of valid votes. The poll was released on Tuesday 20 October.
What is the margin of error?
The margin of error is 1.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The 1.6-point gap is inside it, so the result is a technical tie.
How many voters did Instituto França interview?
It interviewed 3,000 voters across Brazil between 16 and 20 October. The poll is registered with the TSE as BR-07896/2026.
What are the raw totals without blank and null votes removed?
Flávio Bolsonaro has 40.95% and Lula 39.65%. Blank, null or no-choice answers are 10.56% and undecided voters 8.84%.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, five days after this poll was released. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Sources: Poder360, 20 October 2026; Brasil 247, 20 October 2026; GPS Brasília, 20 October 2026; Polymarket, 20 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief