Brazil Poll Puts Flávio at 50.5%, Lula 49.5%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- Published Friday, 16 October, 2:19 p.m. ET. Source: CNT/MDA survey, registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-00652/2026.
- What happened The CNT/MDA poll, released on Friday 16 October, shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 50.5% of valid votes and Lula with 49.5% in the 25 October runoff.
- The numbers In total voting intentions Flávio has 46.8% and Lula 45.9%, with 4.9% blank or null and 2.4% undecided. The margin of error is 2.2 points.
- What changed In the 3 October CNT/MDA survey Lula led a runoff simulation 47.3% to 43.1%, so the 4.2-point gap has turned into a 0.9-point lead for Flávio.
- Fieldwork 2,002 voters aged 16 or older were interviewed from 13 to 15 October, with 95% confidence.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.5% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 22.5% (16 October, 2:17 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 78% (Lula: 23% and 24%), as of 16 October, 2:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
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A new CNT/MDA poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, by 50.5% to 49.5% of valid votes in the Brazil election 2026 runoff. The survey was released on Friday 16 October, and the gap counts as a technical tie.
It matters because the vote on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, which affects Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington. Our Brazil election polls lists every runoff survey so far.
What the CNT/MDA Runoff Poll Found
The National Transport Confederation (CNT), a Brazilian business group, commissioned the survey from the pollster MDA. MDA interviewed 2,002 voters aged 16 or older from 13 to 15 October, with a margin of error of 2.2 points, O Liberal reported.
Flávio Bolsonaro has 46.8% of total voting intentions and Lula 45.9%, with 4.9% blank or null and 2.4% undecided, according to Bahia Notícias. Valid votes, which leave out blank and null answers, split 50.5% to 49.5%.
How the Race Moved in Two Weeks
In the previous CNT/MDA survey, published on 3 October, Lula led a runoff simulation 47.3% to 43.1%, Bahia Notícias reported. In total voting intentions Flávio has gained 3.7 points and Lula has lost 1.4.
Other pollsters also show a close race. Datafolha had Flávio ahead 51% to 49% in valid votes on 15 October, O Povo reported, and Quaest had him at 46% against 44% in total votes on 14 October, according to O Liberal.
What a Technical Tie Means
A technical tie means the gap is smaller than the margin of error. With 2.2 points of error on each number, this survey cannot say which candidate is truly ahead.
Polls also differ in method and timing, so one survey is a snapshot of the days of the interviews. The trend across several pollsters says more than any single number.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean price swings until the result is known. The winner will also set the tone of Brazil’s relations with Washington on trade and tariffs.
Neither candidate is a certain winner, because every recent poll sits inside or near its margin of error.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (16 October, 2:17 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has about US$184.7 million in total trades, and Brazil election odds covers it in full.
Prices are bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes of a new survey. Kalshi, a market regulated in the US by the CFTC, also lists runoff contracts.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.5% · Lula 22.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 24%
As of 16 October, 2:20 pm ET (19:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the late-week news, including the Senate vote to end the 6×1 work schedule, has moved voters, because the interviews ended on 15 October. The size of any shift will show only in the next surveys.
It is also unknown how many undecided voters, 2.4% in this survey, will turn out on 25 October or which way they will go. A poll measures opinion, and it does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads the CNT/MDA poll released on 16 October with 50.5% of valid votes to Lula’s 49.5%. The gap is a technical tie.
What is the margin of error of the CNT/MDA poll?
It is 2.2 percentage points at 95% confidence, based on 2,002 interviews from 13 to 15 October. The one-point gap is inside that margin.
How did the CNT/MDA poll change since 3 October?
Lula led a runoff simulation 47.3% to 43.1% on 3 October. Now Flávio has 46.8% to Lula’s 45.9% in total voting intentions.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, nine days after this poll was released. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Who is behind the CNT/MDA poll?
The National Transport Confederation (CNT), a Brazilian business group, commissioned it and the pollster MDA carried it out. It is registered with the electoral court as BR-00652/2026.
Sources: O Liberal, CNT/MDA runoff poll, 16 October 2026; Bahia Notícias, 16 October 2026; O Liberal, Quaest runoff poll, 14 October 2026; O Povo, Datafolha runoff poll, 15 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief