Unaligned Voters Favor Flávio 59% to 41%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 17 October, 9:36 a.m. ET · Source: Datafolha, via Folha de S.Paulo
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- What happened On Thursday 15 October, the Datafolha polling institute reported that Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula among voters aligned with neither camp.
- The numbers Among these unaligned voters, Flávio has 59% of valid votes and Lula 41%, with a 5-point margin of error for the group.
- The change A week earlier the same group split 58% to 42%, so Flávio gained one point and Lula lost one.
- Whole electorate Nationally the race stays a technical tie, with Flávio at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes and a 2-point margin of error.
- Fieldwork Datafolha interviewed 2,520 voters aged 16 or older on 13 and 14 October (TSE registration BR-00466/2026).
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a about 77% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula about 24% (17 October, 9:34 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 78% (Lula: 24% and 22%), as of 17 October, 9:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
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Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · All election stories
Voters who identify with neither Lula nor the Bolsonaro camp favour Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, by 59% to 41% over Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president. Datafolha reported the result on Thursday 15 October, ahead of the Brazil election 2026 runoff on 25 October.
These unaligned voters are the group both campaigns are courting, and the gap is 18 points, according to Folha de S.Paulo. Our Brazil election polls tracker lists every runoff survey, and the overall race is still too close to call.
What Datafolha Found Among Unaligned Voters
Flávio Bolsonaro has 59% of valid votes in this group and Lula 41%, Folha de S.Paulo reported. The margin of error is 5 points, and Folha says the 18-point gap puts the senator ahead and outside a technical tie.
On 8 October the group split 58% to 42%, O Popular reported from the Folha text. Flávio gained one point and Lula lost one in a week.
How Datafolha Defines Unaligned Voters
Datafolha asks voters to place themselves on a scale from 1 to 5, where 1 means Bolsonarist and 5 means supporter of Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT). Voters who pick 3, or who say they do not identify with the scale, count as unaligned.
Folha stresses that this group is not the same as undecided voters. The percentages cover valid votes in the second-round question, which leave out blank, null and undecided answers.
Religion and Party Groups Compared
Among Bolsonarists, Flávio has 98% of valid votes, and among Lula supporters the president has 93%, with a 3-point margin of error in each group, Folha reported. The camps are almost fully locked in, so the unaligned third group carries the most weight.
Evangelical voters give Flávio 68% against 32% for Lula, down from 73% to 27% a week earlier (4-point margin). Catholics favour Lula 55% to 45%, against 56% to 44% before (3-point margin).
What It Means for US Readers
If you follow Brazilian assets, the swing group is where a close race can tip, so shifts here can move the real and Brazilian stocks quickly. Nationally the poll shows Flávio at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes, a technical tie with a 2-point margin of error.
If you track US–Brazil trade, the 25 October winner sets the tone with Washington for four years. A lead inside one subgroup does not predict the national result.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a about 77% chance of winning the runoff and Lula about 24% (17 October, 9:34 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has about US$185.3 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.8% · Lula 23.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 22%
As of 17 October, 9:20 am ET (14:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Datafolha has not said how large the unaligned group is within the electorate, so the effect on the national result is open. It is also not known how many of these voters will turn out on 25 October.
Subgroup results rest on fewer interviews, which is why the margin of error is wider than the national 2 points. A poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads among unaligned voters in Brazil’s runoff?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 59% of valid votes against 41% for Lula, according to Datafolha. The margin of error for this group is 5 points.
What is an unaligned voter in the Datafolha poll?
It is a voter who picks the middle of a 1-to-5 scale between Bolsonarist and Lula supporter, or who does not identify with the scale. Folha says this is not the same as an undecided voter.
What is the overall result of the latest Datafolha runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro has 51% and Lula 49% of valid votes, a technical tie with a 2-point margin of error. Datafolha interviewed 2,520 voters on 13 and 14 October.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, 15 October 2026; O Popular, 15 October 2026; Bahia Política, 15 October 2026; Datafolha, registration BR-00466/2026 (TSE).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief