Brazil Runoff Poll Has Flávio 51%, Lula 49%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Wednesday, 21 October, 9:44 a.m. ET · Source: Meio/Ideia poll (TSE registration BR-08251/2026)
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Wednesday 21 October, the Meio/Ideia polling institute published a runoff survey that calls the race a technical tie.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 51.1% of valid votes and Lula 48.9%, while raw totals read 48% to 46%, with a 2.5-point margin of error.
- Fieldwork Meio/Ideia interviewed 1,500 voters from 15 to 19 October, and 16.3% said they could still change their vote.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.9% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 20.5% (21 October, 9:42 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 22%), as of 21 October, 10:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
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A new Brazil runoff poll from Meio/Ideia has Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, at 51.1% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, at 48.9% of valid votes. The survey was published on Wednesday 21 October, four days before the vote, and Metrópoles and ND Mais both report a technical tie.
The Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, which matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington. Meio/Ideia is a Brazilian polling institute that works with the political news site Meio, and the latest Brazil election polls are collected in our tracker.
What the Meio/Ideia Runoff Poll Found
Meio/Ideia interviewed 1,500 voters aged 16 or older between 15 and 19 October, with a 95% confidence level and a 2.5-point margin of error, Metrópoles reported. The survey is registered with the electoral court (TSE) under number BR-08251/2026.
Among all respondents, Flávio Bolsonaro has 48% and Lula has 46%, according to ND Mais. Blank and null answers stand at 3.4% and undecided voters at 2.6%.
How Valid Votes and Technical Ties Work
Brazilian election results are reported as valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters publish that figure to match what the electoral court will announce on election night.
A technical tie means the gap is no larger than chance alone could produce in a sample this size. With a 2.5-point margin of error on each number, this survey cannot say who is truly ahead.
Voters Who Could Still Switch
Of those interviewed, 83.7% said they had decided their vote, while 16.3% said they might still change candidates before 25 October, Metrópoles reported. That share is far larger than the 2.2-point gap between the candidates in valid votes.
Meio/Ideia’s previous survey, taken on 25 to 28 September before the first round, had Lula at 48.5% and Flávio at 48% in a hypothetical runoff. That was a different question asked before the first-round result, so the two polls are not a like-for-like trend.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean price swings until the result is known. The Brazil election polls tracker lists every survey so you can compare the pollsters.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. A 2-point gap sits inside the margin of error, so neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.9% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 20.5% (21 October, 9:42 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$190 million in total bets, and our Brazil election odds page tracks it.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on new surveys. Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, lists related contracts on the runoff.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21.5% (US$190 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 21 October, 10:20 am ET (15:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The survey does not say which way the 16.3% of voters who might change their mind will go, or how many will turn out on 25 October. The sponsor of the Meio/Ideia survey was not stated in the reports we reviewed.
Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result. Other institutes will publish final surveys before the vote.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 51.1% to 48.9% of valid votes in the Meio/Ideia poll published on 21 October. The gap is inside the 2.5-point margin of error.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, four days after this poll was published. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
What is the margin of error?
It is 2.5 percentage points up or down, at a 95% confidence level, for 1,500 voters interviewed from 15 to 19 October. The survey is registered with the TSE as BR-08251/2026.
What are the raw totals in the poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro has 48% and Lula 46% among all respondents. Blank and null answers are 3.4% and undecided voters 2.6%.
How many voters could still change their mind?
About 16.3% of respondents said they might change candidates before the vote. The other 83.7% said they had decided.
Sources: Metrópoles, 21 October 2026; ND Mais, 21 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief