Brazil Poll Has Flávio 50.7%, Lula 49.3%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 24 October, 1:10 p.m. ET · Source: CNT/MDA
Key Facts
- What happened The CNT/MDA poll was released on Saturday 24 October, one day before Brazil’s runoff.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 50.7% of valid votes and Lula has 49.3%, a 1.4-point gap.
- What changed On 16 October the same poll had Flávio at 50.5% and Lula at 49.5%.
- Margin of error 2.2 points, up or down, so the two candidates are in a technical tie.
- Fieldwork 2,032 voters interviewed from 21 to 23 October, registered as BR-02136/2026.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 83% chance of winning the runoff (24 October, 1:10 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 83% and Kalshi at 84% (Lula: 18% and 18%), as of 24 October, 1:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Read our Brazil election 2026 runoff guide →
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Who will win: Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · Brazil election poll data (CSV) · All election stories
The CNT/MDA poll, run by the MDA institute for Brazil’s national transport confederation, puts Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, at 50.7% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, at 49.3% of valid votes. It was released on Saturday 24 October, and the gap is a technical tie in the final stretch of the Brazil election 2026.
The poll is one of the last before Sunday 25 October, when the race decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy. It adds to our Brazil election polls tracker, which lists every survey of the runoff.
What the CNT/MDA Poll Found
The MDA institute interviewed 2,032 voters aged 16 or older in 27 federal units, in about 140 municipalities, from 21 to 23 October, Metrópoles reported. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and the poll is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-02136/2026.
The transport confederation (CNT) paid for the survey itself, Metrópoles said. The valid-vote split of 50.7% to 49.3% leaves out blank and null ballots.
How the Poll Compares With the Last One
On 16 October, the same poll had Flávio at 50.5% and Lula at 49.5% of valid votes, Bahia Notícias reported. Our report on the earlier CNT/MDA poll covers that survey.
Flávio is up 0.2 points and Lula down 0.2 points since then. That change is far smaller than the 2.2-point margin of error.
Valid Votes and Technical Ties Explained
Brazilian results are counted in valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters publish that figure to match what the electoral court will announce.
A technical tie means the gap is within the margin of error. With a 2.2-point margin, this poll cannot say who is truly ahead.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can bring sharp price moves once the result is known. Our Brazil election odds page tracks how traders read each new survey.
For US trade and diplomacy, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for four years. A 1.4-point gap sits inside the margin of error, so neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 83.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 16.5% (24 October, 1:10 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$195 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 82.8% · Lula 17.5% (US$195 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 18%
As of 24 October, 1:20 pm ET (18:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Undecided voters and those who will vote blank or null do not count in the valid-vote result, so how they act on 25 October is unknown. The poll also cannot say how many people will turn out.
It is not known how turnout will shape the result on 25 October. Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the outcome.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest CNT/MDA runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 50.7% of valid votes against 49.3% for Lula. The poll was released on Saturday 24 October, a day before the vote.
What is the margin of error?
The margin is 2.2 percentage points, up or down, at a 95% confidence level. The 1.4-point gap is therefore a technical tie.
Who ordered and ran the poll?
The CNT, Brazil’s national transport confederation, commissioned the survey and the MDA institute carried it out. It interviewed 2,032 voters from Wednesday 21 to Friday 23 October.
How does this compare with the previous CNT/MDA poll?
On 16 October the poll had Flávio at 50.5% and Lula at 49.5% of valid votes. Flávio is up 0.2 points and Lula down 0.2 points.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October to choose the president for a four-year term. The electoral court (TSE) announces the official result.
Sources: Metrópoles, 24 October 2026; Gazeta do Povo, 24 October 2026; Bahia Notícias, 16 October 2026; Poder360, 24 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief