Data Ranking Poll Has Lula Up 50.4% to 49.6%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Tuesday, 20 October, 1:09 p.m. ET · Source: Data Ranking poll, registration BR-00152/2026
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Tuesday 20 October, the polling firm Data Ranking published a runoff survey that puts Lula narrowly ahead.
- The numbers Lula has 50.4% of valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro 49.6%, while raw totals read 45.4% to 44.6%, with 6% blank, null or neither and 4% undecided.
- Margin of error 2.15 points either way at a 95% confidence level, so the 0.8-point gap is a statistical tie.
- Fieldwork 2,100 voters aged 16 or older were interviewed in person from Wednesday 14 to Friday 16 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 21.5% (20 October, 4:18 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 21%), as of 20 October, 4:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Data Ranking ran the poll in partnership with the news portal Fonte83, and the three other surveys cited here all have Flávio ahead.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
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A new Brazil runoff poll from Data Ranking puts Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by 50.4% to 49.6% of valid votes. The firm published it on Tuesday 20 October at 1:09 p.m. ET, five days before the vote on Sunday 25 October.
The result matters because the other major surveys had the Brazil election 2026 runoff leaning to Flávio, who is a conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. See every survey in our Brazil election polls tracker.
What the Data Ranking Poll Found
Data Ranking interviewed 2,100 voters in person and in their homes between Wednesday 14 and Friday 16 October, Fonte83 reported. The survey, run in partnership with the Fonte83 portal, carries a 2.15-point margin of error and electoral court (TSE) registration BR-00152/2026.
In raw totals, Lula has 45.4% and Flávio Bolsonaro 44.6%, according to Revista Fórum. Another 6% said they would vote blank, null or for neither, and 4% did not know.
How Valid Votes and Statistical Ties Work
Brazilian results are reported as valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters publish that figure to match what the electoral court will announce, while the raw total counts everyone interviewed.
A statistical tie means the gap is no larger than chance could produce in a sample this size. With a margin of 2.15 points on each number, this survey cannot say who is truly ahead.
How It Fits With Other Runoff Polls
Datafolha, the pollster linked to the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, had Flávio ahead 51% to 49% in valid votes, SBT News reported. The CNT/MDA poll, fielded from 13 to 15 October, showed Flávio at 50.5% and Lula at 49.5%, according to Correio.
PoderData/Aya had Flávio ahead 51% to 49% on 13 October, SBT News reported. The Data Ranking result therefore stands apart from these three surveys, which all had Flávio in front.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean price swings until the result is known. Brazilian outlet Metrópoles reported on Tuesday that the stock market was near a new record after a poll showing Flávio at 52%, so a different survey can move prices either way.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. One survey with a 2.15-point margin does not settle that, and the polling average matters more.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 21.5% (20 October, 4:18 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$189 million in total bets.
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC, also lists runoff margin markets. These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on new surveys.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 21.5% (US$189 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 20 October, 4:20 pm ET (21:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Data Ranking has not published its previous runoff result in the sources we reviewed, so we cannot say whether Lula is gaining or the firm simply measures the race differently.
It is also unknown how undecided and blank voters will act on 25 October. Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads the Data Ranking runoff poll?
Lula leads narrowly, with 50.4% of valid votes against 49.6% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The 0.8-point gap is well inside the 2.15-point margin of error.
What is the margin of error?
The Data Ranking poll has a margin of error of 2.15 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. That makes the race a statistical tie.
Who is Data Ranking?
Data Ranking is a Brazilian polling firm that partnered with the news portal Fonte83 on this survey. It is less widely known than Datafolha.
How does it compare with other runoff polls?
Datafolha (published 15 October) and CNT/MDA (fieldwork 13 to 15 October) had Flávio ahead by 1 to 2 points in valid votes. This survey stands apart from them by putting Lula in front.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, five days from now. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Sources: Fonte83, 20 October 2026; Revista Fórum, 20 October 2026; Blog do Milton Figueiredo, 20 October 2026; SBT News (Datafolha); Correio; SBT News (PoderData/Aya).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief