{
 "title": "Brazil 2026 runoff poll database",
 "publisher": "The Rio Times",
 "page": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-election-data-room/",
 "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "license_note": "Free to use with attribution: credit The Rio Times and link to https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-election-data-room/",
 "updated": "2026-10-20T14:45:43Z",
 "temporal_coverage": "2026-10-04/2026-10-25",
 "note": "Data from The Rio Times poll tracker; shares are percentages of valid votes (blank, spoiled and undecided answers removed) unless a column says all answers.",
 "average": {
  "method": "simple mean of the latest national runoff poll of each pollster, valid votes, unweighted",
  "flavio_valid_pct": 51.1,
  "lula_valid_pct": 48.9,
  "pollsters": 14,
  "polls_total": 26,
  "polls_flavio_ahead": 23,
  "polls_lula_ahead": 2,
  "polls_tied": 1
 },
 "columns": [
  "poll_id",
  "pollster",
  "pollster_group",
  "description",
  "release_date",
  "fieldwork_start",
  "fieldwork_end",
  "sample_size",
  "mode",
  "margin_of_error_pts",
  "confidence_level_pct",
  "lula_valid_pct",
  "flavio_valid_pct",
  "lead_flavio_pts",
  "lula_all_answers_pct",
  "flavio_all_answers_pct",
  "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times",
  "tse_registration",
  "report_url",
  "tracker_url",
  "source"
 ],
 "polls": [
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-20-real-time-big-data",
   "pollster": "Real Time Big Data",
   "pollster_group": "real-time-big-data",
   "description": "runoff poll",
   "release_date": "2026-10-20",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-15",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-19",
   "sample_size": 2000,
   "mode": "phone and online messages",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.0,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.0,
   "lula_valid_pct": 48.0,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 52.0,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 4.0,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 45.0,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 48.0,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-02952/2026",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/real-time-big-data-poll-flavio-52-lula-48-runoff-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-20-alfa-inteligencia",
   "pollster": "Alfa Inteligência",
   "pollster_group": "alfa-inteligencia",
   "description": "runoff poll",
   "release_date": "2026-10-20",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-15",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-19",
   "sample_size": 2700,
   "mode": "face-to-face",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 1.9,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.0,
   "lula_valid_pct": 48.5,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 51.5,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 3.0,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 45.9,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 48.8,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-00820/2026",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/alfa-inteligencia-poll-flavio-51-5-lula-48-5-runoff-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-19-datatrends",
   "pollster": "DataTrends",
   "pollster_group": "datatrends",
   "description": "second runoff poll",
   "release_date": "2026-10-19",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-15",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-17",
   "sample_size": 2000,
   "mode": "phone",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.19,
   "confidence_level_pct": null,
   "lula_valid_pct": 48.5,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 51.5,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 3.0,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 46.0,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 49.0,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-04454/2026",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/datatrends-poll-flavio-51-5-lula-48-5-runoff-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-19-futura-100-cidades",
   "pollster": "Futura/100% Cidades",
   "pollster_group": "futura",
   "description": "Futura Inteligência with 100% Cidades",
   "release_date": "2026-10-19",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-16",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-17",
   "sample_size": 2000,
   "mode": "",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.2,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.0,
   "lula_valid_pct": 49.6,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 50.4,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 0.8,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 47.5,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 48.3,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/futura-poll-flavio-48-lula-47-runoff-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-19-poderdata-aya",
   "pollster": "PoderData/Aya",
   "pollster_group": "poderdata",
   "description": "PoderData, published by Poder360",
   "release_date": "2026-10-19",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-16",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-18",
   "sample_size": 3000,
   "mode": "phone",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 1.8,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.0,
   "lula_valid_pct": 48.0,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 52.0,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 4.0,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": null,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": null,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-02586/2026",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/poderdata-poll-flavio-52-lula-48-runoff-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-19-atlasintel",
   "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
   "pollster_group": "atlasintel",
   "description": "online panel, with Bloomberg",
   "release_date": "2026-10-19",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-13",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-18",
   "sample_size": 4998,
   "mode": "online",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 1.0,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.0,
   "lula_valid_pct": 48.9,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 51.1,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 2.2,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 47.6,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 49.8,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-02418/2026",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-atlasintel-poll-flavio-lula-runoff-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-19-nexus",
   "pollster": "Nexus",
   "pollster_group": "nexus",
   "description": "for BTG Pactual",
   "release_date": "2026-10-19",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-16",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-18",
   "sample_size": 2002,
   "mode": "",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.0,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.0,
   "lula_valid_pct": 49.7,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 50.3,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 0.6,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": null,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": null,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-04499/2026",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/btg-nexus-poll-lula-flavio-50-50-runoff-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-18-vox-brasil",
   "pollster": "Vox Brasil",
   "pollster_group": "vox-brasil",
   "description": "self-funded, second wave",
   "release_date": "2026-10-18",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-15",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-17",
   "sample_size": 2100,
   "mode": "face-to-face",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.15,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.0,
   "lula_valid_pct": 51.0,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 49.0,
   "lead_flavio_pts": -2.0,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 46.4,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 44.6,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-04332/2026",
   "report_url": "",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-17-ipespe-abrapel",
   "pollster": "Ipespe/Abrapel",
   "pollster_group": "ipespe",
   "description": "Ipespe with Abrapel",
   "release_date": "2026-10-17",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-13",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-15",
   "sample_size": 1500,
   "mode": "",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.6,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.45,
   "lula_valid_pct": 48.8,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 51.2,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 2.4,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": null,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": null,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-00223/2026",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/ipespe-abrapel-poll-flavio-51-lula-49-runoff-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-17-verita",
   "pollster": "Veritá",
   "pollster_group": "verita",
   "description": "Instituto Veritá, own initiative",
   "release_date": "2026-10-17",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-12",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-16",
   "sample_size": 15554,
   "mode": "",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 1.0,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.0,
   "lula_valid_pct": 48.9,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 51.1,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 2.2,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": null,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": null,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-01107/2026",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/verita-poll-flavio-51-lula-49-runoff-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-16-gerp",
   "pollster": "Gerp",
   "pollster_group": "gerp",
   "description": "self-funded",
   "release_date": "2026-10-16",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-14",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-16",
   "sample_size": 2400,
   "mode": "phone",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.0,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.55,
   "lula_valid_pct": 48.0,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 52.0,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 4.0,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 45.0,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 50.0,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-05187/2026",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/gerp-poll-flavio-52-lula-48-runoff-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-16-poderdata-aya",
   "pollster": "PoderData/Aya",
   "pollster_group": "poderdata",
   "description": "PoderData, published by Poder360",
   "release_date": "2026-10-16",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-13",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-15",
   "sample_size": 3000,
   "mode": "phone",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 1.8,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.0,
   "lula_valid_pct": 50.0,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 50.0,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 0.0,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": null,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": null,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-04258/2026",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/poderdata-aya-poll-lula-flavio-tied-50-runoff-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-16-futura-100-cidades",
   "pollster": "Futura/100% Cidades",
   "pollster_group": "futura",
   "description": "Futura Inteligência with 100% Cidades",
   "release_date": "2026-10-16",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-14",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-15",
   "sample_size": 2000,
   "mode": "phone",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.2,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.0,
   "lula_valid_pct": 49.2,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 50.8,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 1.6,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 47.5,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 49.0,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-03764/2026",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/futura-poll-flavio-50-8-lula-49-2-runoff-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-16-cnt-mda",
   "pollster": "CNT/MDA",
   "pollster_group": "cnt",
   "description": "for the National Transport Confederation",
   "release_date": "2026-10-16",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-13",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-15",
   "sample_size": 2000,
   "mode": "",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.2,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.0,
   "lula_valid_pct": 49.5,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 50.5,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 1.0,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 45.9,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 46.8,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/cnt-mda-poll-flavio-50-5-lula-49-5-runoff-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-15-datafolha",
   "pollster": "Datafolha",
   "pollster_group": "datafolha",
   "description": "for Folha de S.Paulo and TV Globo",
   "release_date": "2026-10-15",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-13",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-15",
   "sample_size": 2520,
   "mode": "face-to-face",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.0,
   "confidence_level_pct": null,
   "lula_valid_pct": 49.0,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 51.0,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 2.0,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 45.0,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 47.0,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-00466/2026",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/datafolha-unaligned-voters-flavio-59-lula-41-runoff-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-14-quaest",
   "pollster": "Quaest",
   "pollster_group": "quaest",
   "description": "for Globo",
   "release_date": "2026-10-14",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-10",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-13",
   "sample_size": 2154,
   "mode": "",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.0,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.0,
   "lula_valid_pct": 48.9,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 51.1,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 2.2,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 44.0,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 46.0,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": true,
   "tse_registration": "BR-08729/2026",
   "report_url": "https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-quaest-poll-flavio-46-lula-44-2026/",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-13-futura",
   "pollster": "Futura",
   "pollster_group": "futura",
   "description": "for 100% Cidades",
   "release_date": "2026-10-13",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-07",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-10",
   "sample_size": 2000,
   "mode": "phone",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.2,
   "confidence_level_pct": null,
   "lula_valid_pct": 48.2,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 51.8,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 3.6,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 46.6,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 50.0,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-00650/2026",
   "report_url": "",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-13-gerp",
   "pollster": "Gerp",
   "pollster_group": "gerp",
   "description": "self-funded",
   "release_date": "2026-10-13",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-08",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-12",
   "sample_size": 2400,
   "mode": "phone",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.0,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.55,
   "lula_valid_pct": 45.0,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 55.0,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 10.0,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 44.0,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 53.0,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-07877/2026",
   "report_url": "",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-13-nexus",
   "pollster": "Nexus",
   "pollster_group": "nexus",
   "description": "for BTG Pactual",
   "release_date": "2026-10-13",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-10",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-12",
   "sample_size": 2002,
   "mode": "phone",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.0,
   "confidence_level_pct": null,
   "lula_valid_pct": 48.0,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 52.0,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 4.0,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 45.0,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 48.0,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-07997/2026",
   "report_url": "",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-13-poderdata",
   "pollster": "PoderData",
   "pollster_group": "poderdata",
   "description": "Poder360",
   "release_date": "2026-10-13",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-10",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-12",
   "sample_size": 3000,
   "mode": "automated calls",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 1.8,
   "confidence_level_pct": null,
   "lula_valid_pct": 49.0,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 51.0,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 2.0,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": null,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": null,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-01209/2026",
   "report_url": "",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-11-datatrends",
   "pollster": "DataTrends",
   "pollster_group": "datatrends",
   "description": "self-funded",
   "release_date": "2026-10-11",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-07",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-09",
   "sample_size": 2000,
   "mode": "phone",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.19,
   "confidence_level_pct": null,
   "lula_valid_pct": 46.9,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 53.1,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 6.2,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": null,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": null,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-03576/2026",
   "report_url": "",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-10-ipespe",
   "pollster": "Ipespe",
   "pollster_group": "ipespe",
   "description": "with Abrapel",
   "release_date": "2026-10-10",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-06",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-08",
   "sample_size": 1500,
   "mode": "phone",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.6,
   "confidence_level_pct": 95.45,
   "lula_valid_pct": 47.3,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 52.7,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 5.4,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 44.0,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 49.0,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-00933/2026",
   "report_url": "",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-09-atlasintel",
   "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
   "pollster_group": "atlasintel",
   "description": "online panel",
   "release_date": "2026-10-09",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-03",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-08",
   "sample_size": 5026,
   "mode": "online",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 1.0,
   "confidence_level_pct": null,
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   "flavio_valid_pct": 52.8,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 5.6,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 45.7,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 51.1,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-03663/2026",
   "report_url": "",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-09-vox-brasil",
   "pollster": "Vox Brasil",
   "pollster_group": "vox-brasil",
   "description": "self-funded",
   "release_date": "2026-10-09",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-05",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-07",
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   "mode": "face-to-face",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.15,
   "confidence_level_pct": null,
   "lula_valid_pct": 50.9,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 49.1,
   "lead_flavio_pts": -1.8,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 44.2,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 42.7,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": true,
   "tse_registration": "BR-09623/2026",
   "report_url": "",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-08-datafolha",
   "pollster": "Datafolha",
   "pollster_group": "datafolha",
   "description": "for Folha de S.Paulo and TV Globo",
   "release_date": "2026-10-08",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-06",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-07",
   "sample_size": 2520,
   "mode": "face-to-face",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 2.0,
   "confidence_level_pct": null,
   "lula_valid_pct": 48.0,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 52.0,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 4.0,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": 45.0,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": 49.0,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-02949/2026",
   "report_url": "",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  },
  {
   "poll_id": "2026-10-08-poderdata",
   "pollster": "PoderData",
   "pollster_group": "poderdata",
   "description": "Poder360",
   "release_date": "2026-10-08",
   "fieldwork_start": "2026-10-05",
   "fieldwork_end": "2026-10-07",
   "sample_size": 3000,
   "mode": "automated calls",
   "margin_of_error_pts": 1.8,
   "confidence_level_pct": null,
   "lula_valid_pct": 47.0,
   "flavio_valid_pct": 53.0,
   "lead_flavio_pts": 6.0,
   "lula_all_answers_pct": null,
   "flavio_all_answers_pct": null,
   "valid_shares_calculated_by_rio_times": false,
   "tse_registration": "BR-08134/2026",
   "report_url": "",
   "tracker_url": null,
   "source": null
  }
 ]
}