DataTrends Poll Has Flávio 51.9%, Lula 48.1%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 23 October, 1:50 PM ET · Source: DataTrends
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- What happened On Friday 23 October, the DataTrends polling institute published a new survey of the Lula–Flávio runoff.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 51.9% of valid votes and Lula 48.1%, while raw totals read 50% to 46%, with a 2.19-point margin of error.
- What changed DataTrends’ previous poll, fielded 15 to 17 October, had Flávio at 51.5% and Lula at 48.5%, so the gap widened.
- Fieldwork 2,000 interviews were conducted nationwide on 19 to 21 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76% chance of winning the runoff (Friday 23 October, 1:49 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 76% and Kalshi at 77% (Lula: 24% and 25%), as of 23 October, 2:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
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A new DataTrends poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro, ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 51.9% to 48.1% of valid votes. The survey was published on Friday 23 October, and the 3.8-point lead sits inside its margin of error ahead of the Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October.
Flávio gained 0.4 points on DataTrends’ survey of 19 October, while Lula, the leftist incumbent, lost 0.4. Our Brazil election polls tracker lists every runoff survey so readers can compare the institutes.
What the DataTrends Poll Found
DataTrends interviewed 2,000 voters nationwide on 19, 20 and 21 October, Blog Edmar Lyra reported. The margin of error is 2.19 percentage points up or down, at 95% confidence.
The survey is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-03365/2026, Didi Galvão reported. Among all respondents, Flávio has 50% and Lula 46%, with 4% blank or null and 1% giving no answer.
Valid votes leave out blank ballots, spoiled ballots and undecided voters. Pollsters publish that figure because it matches how Brazil's electoral court will count the real result.
With a 2.19-point margin on each number, a 3.8-point gap is close to the edge of what the poll can separate. The lead is numerically clear but statistically thin.
How the DataTrends Gap Has Moved
DataTrends' previous runoff poll, fielded 15 to 17 October, had Flávio at 51.5% and Lula at 48.5% of valid votes, GP1 reported. The lead has grown from 3 points to 3.8 points in about a week.
In raw totals, Flávio rose from 49% to 50% while Lula stayed at 46%. Our report on that poll has the details.
One pollster's trend is not proof of a national shift. Other institutes this week show a closer race: Datafolha has a 50% tie and Vox Brasil has Lula ahead at 50.6%.
What It Means for US Readers
Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and a major trade partner of the United States. Brazilian stocks, the real and US-listed shares of Brazilian companies can swing sharply until the result is known.
Pollsters disagree by several points this week, which is why investors are weighing every new survey with care. The winner will shape Brazil's ties with Washington on trade, energy and security for four years.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 24.5% (Friday 23 October, 1:49 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$192.7 million in total trades.
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC, also lists Brazil presidential contracts. These are bets, not polls, and prices can move within minutes of a new survey.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.1% · Lula 23.5% (US$193 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 25%
As of 23 October, 2:20 pm ET (19:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The reports we reviewed do not say who commissioned or paid for the survey, or how the interviews were carried out. It is also not known how the 1% with no answer and the 4% blank or null will vote.
Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result. Turnout on Sunday 25 October will decide the outcome.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest DataTrends runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 51.9% of valid votes against 48.1% for Lula. The 3.8-point gap is close to the 2.19-point margin of error on each number.
What is the margin of error of the DataTrends poll?
It is 2.19 percentage points up or down, at 95% confidence. The survey covered 2,000 interviews nationwide on 19 to 21 October.
How did this DataTrends poll change from the last one?
Flávio rose from 51.5% to 51.9% of valid votes, and Lula fell from 48.5% to 48.1%. The gap grew from 3 points to 3.8 points.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner will be president for a four-year term.
What are valid votes in a Brazilian poll?
Valid votes leave out blank ballots, spoiled ballots and undecided voters. They match how Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) reports results.
Sources: Blog Edmar Lyra, 23 October 2026; Didi Galvão, 23 October 2026; GP1, 19 October 2026; Polymarket and Kalshi, 23 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief