BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 24 October, 8:04 p.m. ET · Source: Palver
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- What happened On the evening of Saturday 24 October, Brasília time, the Palver polling institute released its last runoff survey.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 50% and President Lula 49%, with 1% blank, null or staying home and 0% undecided.
- Margin of error 2.2 points, from 5,000 online interviews on 22–24 October (TSE registration BR-01794/2026).
- The change Palver’s previous poll had Flávio at 50% and Lula at 48%, so Lula gained one point.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 84% chance of winning the runoff (24 October, 8:01 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84% and Kalshi at 83% (Lula: 17% and 18%), as of 24 October, 8:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Read our Brazil election 2026 runoff guide →
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Who will win: Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · Brazil election poll data (CSV) · All election stories
Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, by 50% to 49% in the final Palver poll before the Brazil election 2026 runoff. The institute released it on the evening of Saturday 24 October, Brasília time, and the one-point gap is a technical tie.
The vote on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, which matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington. Our Brazil election polls tracker lists every runoff survey so readers can compare the pollsters.
What the Final Palver Poll Found
Palver interviewed 5,000 voters aged 16 or older across Brazil from 22 to 24 October, Terra reported. The survey was paid for by the institute itself, Exame reported, and has a margin of error of 2.2 points at a 95% confidence level.
Flávio has 50% and Lula 49%, while 1% would vote blank, void the ballot or stay home and 0% are undecided, according to Terra. The institute’s previous poll, released on Wednesday 21 October, showed Flávio at 50% and Lula at 48%, Diário do Grande ABC reported.
Our report on that earlier survey is here: Palver runoff poll, Flávio 50%, Lula 48%. Lula gained one point in three days, a move well inside the margin of error.
How Palver Runs Its Survey
Palver interviewed people through an online questionnaire with a non-probabilistic sample, Exame reported. That means respondents were not drawn at random, so the stated margin of error is an estimate rather than a strict guarantee.
Phone and in-person surveys use other methods, which is one reason pollsters can differ by a point or two on the same days. The TSE, Brazil’s electoral court, requires every published poll to carry a registration number, and this one is BR-01794/2026.
Rejection and Government Approval
Palver found that 49% of voters reject Lula and 47% reject Flávio, Terra reported. Rejection measures the share who say they would never vote for a candidate.
Disapproval of Lula’s government stood at 51% and approval at 48% in the same survey. Half of respondents rated the government poor or very poor, according to Terra.
Another Poll Released the Same Day
The Gerp institute, which polled 2,400 voters by phone from 22 to 24 October, gave Flávio 52% of valid votes and Lula 48%, Poder360 reported. Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, so that figure is not directly comparable with Palver’s raw totals.
Gerp’s margin of error is 2 points, so it also describes a technical tie. Its previous survey, released on Wednesday 21 October, had Flávio at 53% and Lula at 47%.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean sharp price swings once results arrive on Sunday evening. Polling stations close at 5 p.m. Brasília time (4 p.m. ET), and the electoral court publishes results on its own site.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. A one-point gap is inside the margin of error, so neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 84% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula about 17% (24 October, 8:01 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$195.8 million in total bets, and the two prices add to slightly more than 100% because of trading spreads.
Polymarket’s price is a bet, not a poll, and it can move within minutes of new surveys. See our Brazil election odds page for the live figures.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83.8% · Lula 16.5% (US$196 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 83% · Lula 18%
As of 24 October, 8:20 pm ET (01:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
No poll can say how many of the voters who say they are undecided or may stay home will vote on Sunday, or which way they will go. Every survey measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
It is also unclear whether online samples such as Palver’s capture voters as well as phone and in-person polls do. The official count by the electoral court is the only result that decides the race.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from Palver?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 50% to 49% in the Palver poll released on the evening of Saturday 24 October. The one-point gap is a technical tie.
What is the margin of error in the Palver poll?
It is 2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, from 5,000 online interviews on 22–24 October. The survey is registered with the electoral court as BR-01794/2026.
How did the Palver poll change from the previous one?
Flávio stayed at 50% while Lula rose from 48% to 49%. The change is inside the margin of error.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, the day after this poll was published. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
What is a technical tie in a poll?
It means the gap between candidates is within the margin of error, here 2.2 points. The survey cannot say who is truly ahead.
Sources: Terra, 24 October 2026; Exame, 24 October 2026; Diário do Grande ABC, 21 October 2026; Poder360, 24 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief