Futura Poll Has Flávio 51.1%, Lula 48.9%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Wednesday, 21 October, 11:15 a.m. ET · Source: Futura Inteligência / 100% Cidades poll, TSE registration BR-06614/2026
Key Facts
- What happened The Futura Inteligência polling institute published a new runoff survey on Wednesday 21 October, and it shows a technical tie.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 51.1% and Lula 48.9% of valid votes, with a 2.2-point margin of error.
- The change Futura’s previous survey, published on 19 October, had Flávio at 50.4% and Lula at 49.6%.
- Fieldwork 2,000 voters aged 16 or older were interviewed on 19 and 20 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (21 October, 11:03 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 23% and 23%), as of 21 October, 11:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Read our Brazil election 2026 runoff guide →
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Who will win: Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · Brazil election poll data (CSV) · All election stories
A new poll from the Futura Inteligência institute puts Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, at 51.1% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, at 48.9% of valid votes. Futura published the survey on Wednesday 21 October, four days before the Brazil election 2026 vote, and Brazilian outlets call it a technical tie.
The runoff on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, which matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington. This is one more entry in our tracker of Brazil election polls, which shows a race inside the margin of error.
What the New Futura Poll Found
Futura interviewed 2,000 voters aged 16 or older on 19 and 20 October, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points at 95% confidence, Poder360 reported. The survey is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-06614/2026.
Flávio Bolsonaro has 51.1% of valid votes and Lula has 48.9%, according to CNN Brasil. Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, which is how the TSE reports results.
How the Race Moved Since Monday
Futura’s previous survey, published on Monday 19 October, had Flávio at 50.4% and Lula at 49.6% of valid votes, as we reported in our earlier Futura poll report. Flávio gained 0.7 points and Lula lost 0.7, so the lead grew from 0.8 points to 2.2.
A 0.7-point move is well inside the 2.2-point margin of error. It is a direction worth watching, not proof that voters changed their minds.
Why a Technical Tie Is Not a Forecast
A technical tie means the gap is no larger than chance alone could produce in a sample of this size. With a 2.2-point margin on each number, this poll cannot separate the two candidates.
Poder360 and CNN Brasil both describe the result as a tie within the margin of error. Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not predict the vote.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can bring price swings until the result is known. Our Brazil election polls page lists every survey so you can compare the institutes.
The winner will set Brazil’s course on trade and diplomacy with Washington for the next four years. A 2.2-point gap is too small to separate the two, so neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.7% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (21 October, 11:03 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$190 million in total bets, and prices from Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the CFTC, are on our Brazil election odds page.
Prices are bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes of new surveys. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely.
We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.6% · Lula 22.5% (US$190 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 23%
As of 21 October, 11:20 am ET (16:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The reported figures do not show how undecided voters will split or how many will turn out on 25 October. Futura’s method and sample differ from other institutes, so the results are not directly comparable.
Official results come only from the TSE. Brazilians will have the final word on Sunday 25 October.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from Futura?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 51.1% to 48.9% of valid votes. The 2.2-point gap is within the margin of error, so Brazilian outlets call it a technical tie.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, four days after this poll was published. The winner will become president of Latin America’s largest country.
What is the margin of error?
It is 2.2 percentage points up or down at 95% confidence, according to Poder360. A lead that small cannot show who is truly ahead.
How did the poll change from Futura’s previous survey?
On Monday 19 October, Futura had Flávio at 50.4% and Lula at 49.6% of valid votes. Flávio gained 0.7 points and Lula lost 0.7.
What are valid votes?
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, matching the way Brazil’s electoral court reports results. Pollsters publish this figure to compare with the official count.
Sources: Poder360, 21 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 21 October 2026; A Rede, 21 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief