França Poll Has Flávio 51.4%, Lula 48.6%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 24 October, 12:56 p.m. ET · Source: Instituto França
Key Facts
- What happened Instituto França released a poll on Saturday 24 October, one day before Brazil’s runoff.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 51.4% of valid votes and Lula has 48.6%, a 2.8-point gap.
- What changed On 20 October the same institute had Flávio at 50.8% and Lula at 49.2%.
- Margin of error 2.5 points, up or down, so the two candidates are in a technical tie.
- Fieldwork 1,537 voters interviewed from 21 to 23 October, registered as BR-04863/2026.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 83% chance of winning the runoff (24 October, 12:56 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84% and Kalshi at 84% (Lula: 17% and 16%), as of 24 October, 1:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
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Instituto França, a Brazilian polling firm, put Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, at 51.4% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, at 48.6% of valid votes in a poll released on Saturday 24 October. The gap is inside the margin of error, a technical tie in the final stretch of the Brazil election 2026.
The poll is one of the last before Sunday 25 October, when the race decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy. It adds to our Brazil election polls tracker, which lists every survey of the runoff.
What the Instituto França Poll Found
Instituto França interviewed 1,537 voters across all five regions and 27 federal units, including the Federal District, from 21 to 23 October, Times Brasil reported. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and the poll is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-04863/2026.
Counting every answer, Flávio has 45.6% and Lula has 43.1%, according to Times Brasil. Blank or null answers make up 7.4%, and 3.9% gave no answer.
Once blank, null and undecided answers are set aside, the split becomes 51.4% to 48.6%. The institute paid for the survey with its own funds, the same report said.
How the Poll Compares With the Last One
On Tuesday 20 October, the institute published a poll with Flávio at 50.8% and Lula at 49.2% of valid votes, Congresso em Foco reported. That earlier survey interviewed 3,000 voters by telephone from 16 to 20 October with a 1.8-point margin of error.
Flávio is up 0.6 points and Lula down 0.6 points, Bahia Notícias reported. The two polls use different samples, so the shift is smaller than either margin of error.
Valid Votes and Technical Ties Explained
Brazilian results are counted in valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters publish that figure to match what the electoral court will announce.
A technical tie means the gap is no larger than chance alone could produce in a sample of this size. With a 2.5-point margin on each number, this poll cannot say who is truly ahead.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can bring sharp price moves once the result is known. Our Brazil election odds page tracks how traders read each new survey.
For US trade and diplomacy, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for four years. A 2.8-point gap sits inside the margin of error, so neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 83.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 17.5% (24 October, 12:56 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$195 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83.5% · Lula 16.5% (US$195 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 16%
As of 24 October, 1:40 pm ET (18:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The poll does not say how the 3.9% who gave no answer will vote, or whether they will vote at all. Instituto França’s two surveys also used different sample sizes, so a trend cannot be read from them.
It is not known how turnout will shape the result on 25 October. Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the outcome.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from Instituto França?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 51.4% of valid votes against 48.6% for Lula. The poll was released on Saturday 24 October, a day before the vote.
What is the margin of error?
The margin is 2.5 percentage points, up or down, at a 95% confidence level. That makes the 2.8-point gap a technical tie.
When did the interviews take place?
Instituto França interviewed 1,537 voters from Wednesday 21 to Friday 23 October. The poll is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-04863/2026.
How does this compare with the previous França poll?
On 20 October the institute had Flávio at 50.8% and Lula at 49.2% of valid votes. Flávio is up 0.6 points and Lula down 0.6 points.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October to choose the president for a four-year term. The electoral court (TSE) announces the official result.
Sources: Times Brasil, 24 October 2026; Bahia Notícias, 24 October 2026; Congresso em Foco, 20 October 2026; Poder360, 24 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief