Brazil Runoff Poll Puts Flávio 1 Point Up
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Wednesday, 21 October, 10:06 a.m. ET · Source: Quaest poll for Globo
Key Facts
- The vote Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, picks its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- What happened A new Quaest poll for Globo shows the two candidates almost level, four days before the vote.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 45% and President Lula 44%, or 50.6% to 49.4% of valid votes.
- The change A week earlier Flávio led 46% to 44%, so his lead shrank from two points to one.
- Still open The margin of error is 2 points, so neither man is a sure winner.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.8% chance of winning and Lula 21.5% (21 October, 10:05 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 22%), as of 21 October, 10:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
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A new Quaest poll published on Wednesday 21 October shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and President Lula at 44% for the Brazil election 2026 runoff. On valid votes, which leave out blank, null and undecided answers, Flávio leads 50.6% to 49.4%.
Quaest is a leading Brazilian polling firm, and the Globo media group paid for the survey. Our Brazil election polls tracker lists every runoff survey so you can compare the firms.
What the New Quaest Poll Found
Quaest interviewed 2,154 voters aged 16 or older from 17 to 20 October, Nill Júnior reported. The margin of error is 2 points at 95% confidence, and the poll carries electoral court (TSE) registration BR-08535/2026.
Of all answers, 9% were blank or null and 2% were undecided, according to the same report. Those 11% sit outside the 50.6% to 49.4% split in valid votes.
The Band television debate took place on Sunday 18 October, inside the fieldwork window. Quaest’s previous poll, taken from 10 to 13 October, ended before it.
How the Race Moved in One Week
On 14 October, Quaest had Flávio at 46% and Lula at 44% of all answers, registration BR-08729/2026. By our own calculation that was 51.1% to 48.9% in valid votes, so Flávio’s lead has narrowed.
Flávio lost one point and Lula held at 44%. A one-point change sits well inside a 2-point margin of error, so it is not a clear trend.
Approval of Lula and Voter Rejection
Quaest found that 46% of Brazilians approve of Lula’s government and 47% disapprove, up one point and down one point from 45% and 48% a week earlier, Brasil 247 reported. Approval is not the same as vote choice.
Rejection, the share of voters who rule out a candidate, stands at 47% for Lula and 52% for Flávio, according to Agenda do Poder. Rejection is a separate measure from vote intention.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this tight can keep prices swinging until the count ends on Sunday. New polls can also move the odds that traders put on each candidate.
If you follow US trade or politics, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. Quaest and Datafolha plan new polls before the vote, so this snapshot may soon change.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders gave Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 21.5% at 10:05 a.m. ET on 21 October. About US$190.3 million has been traded on the Brazil presidential election market.
These prices are bets, not polls, and a 78.8% price does not match any poll number. Kalshi, a market regulated in the United States by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), also lists contracts on the Brazil election.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21.5% (US$190 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 21 October, 10:20 am ET (15:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known how much the Band debate or the final week will change voters’ minds, since only part of this poll was taken after it. Datafolha is due to publish a new poll on Thursday 22 October, and both institutes plan final surveys on Saturday 24 October, Brasil de Fato reported.
It is also unknown who among the 11% of blank, null and undecided voters will turn out on Sunday. A poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads by one point in the Quaest poll published on 21 October, with 45% to Lula’s 44%. On valid votes it is 50.6% to 49.4%, a technical tie.
What is the margin of error?
The margin of error is 2 percentage points at 95% confidence. A one-point lead is smaller than that, so it cannot show who is truly ahead.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October 2026. Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula qualified after the first round on 4 October.
How many people did Quaest interview?
Quaest interviewed 2,154 voters aged 16 or older from 17 to 20 October. Globo commissioned the poll.
What do Brazilians think of Lula’s government?
Quaest found 46% approve and 47% disapprove, against 45% and 48% a week earlier. That is a technical tie within the margin of error.
Sources: Nill Júnior, Quaest runoff poll BR-08535/2026, 21 October 2026; Brasil 247, 21 October 2026; Brasil 247 on rejection, 21 October 2026; Agenda do Poder, 21 October 2026; Brasil de Fato, 20 October 2026. Registration numbers are as printed by the pollster and the outlets cited. Polymarket prices are public market data of 21 October 2026, 10:05 a.m. ET.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief