BRAZIL · RUNOFF · VOTE ABROAD
Published Sunday, 25 October, 5:50 p.m. ET · Source: Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) ballot-box reports (unofficial tally), Polymarket
Brazilians in Germany voted for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over the conservative candidate, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, by 16,549 votes to 4,374 in Sunday’s runoff, or 79.1% of valid votes. The count is unofficial until the electoral court (TSE) confirms it.
Key Facts
- —Germany Lula 16,549 votes (79.1% of valid votes), Flávio Bolsonaro 4,374 (20.9%), a lead of 12,175 votes.
- —Turnout About 20,900 valid votes were counted across five German cities.
- —Unofficial Tally of ballot-box reports; the TSE has not confirmed final totals for Germany.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, gives Flávio Bolsonaro 66.0% and Lula 34.2% to win (5:46 p.m. ET, 25 October). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 43% and Kalshi at 39% (Lula: 57% and 62%), as of 25 October, 6:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every 20 minutes from 5 p.m. Brasília (4 p.m. ET).
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Brazilians living in Germany gave Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, 79.1% of valid votes in the Brazil election 2026 runoff. Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, received 20.9%.
The figures come from ballot-box reports that the TSE publishes as each voting machine closes. Brazilians abroad are under 1% of the electorate, so this is not a forecast; see our Brazil election polls page and the Brazil election odds page.
In Plain English
- Runoff: a second round between the two leading candidates, held because nobody won more than half the valid votes on Sunday 4 October.
- Lula: Brazil’s president and the candidate of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT).
- Flávio Bolsonaro: a senator and the candidate of the conservative Liberal Party (PL); his father, Jair Bolsonaro, was president from 2019 to 2022.
- Ballot-box report: the tally each voting machine prints when its polls close; the TSE publishes them before the official totals.
What Germany Voted
Lula won 16,549 votes and Flávio Bolsonaro 4,374, a gap of 12,175 votes. Those shares, 79.1% against 20.9%, are calculated on valid votes only, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots.
Brazilians in Germany vote in five cities: Berlin, Hamburg, Cologne, Frankfurt and Munich.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, traders gave Flávio Bolsonaro 66.0% and Lula 34.2% for winning the presidency at 5:46 p.m. ET on Sunday 25 October. The Brazil Presidential Election market has drawn about US$202 million in trading.
A separate Polymarket market on who finishes first among overseas voters, with about US$235,000 traded, gave Lula 95.8% and Flávio Bolsonaro 2.0%. Germany’s result runs in the same direction.
These prices are bets, not polls and not results.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 42.7% · Lula 56.5% (US$203 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 39% · Lula 62%
As of 25 October, 6:20 pm ET (22:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+0.47%
205,082.56
+0.47%
69,879.62
-0.01%
10,746.36
-0.31%
3,017,221
—
2,540.10
+0.46%
57,021.19
+0.13%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 205,082.56 | +0.47% | +21.85% | 204,120.12 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
What It Means for US Readers
About 265,000 Brazilians in the United States can vote, the largest overseas bloc. Read 265,000 Brazilians in the US Can Vote Sunday for the city list.
Brazilian and US stock markets are closed on Sunday, so the first market reaction to the national result comes on Monday 26 October. A German tally of about 21,000 valid votes cannot move markets, but it shows how differently Brazilians abroad vote by country.
What Is Not Known
The TSE has not yet confirmed final totals for Germany, so the figures may change as more reports are processed. Turnout among registered Brazilians in Germany is also not yet known.
No national result had been confirmed when this was published. Votes from the United States and the rest of the Americas, and from within Brazil, decide the outcome.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the Brazil runoff vote in Germany?
Lula won among Brazilians in Germany with 16,549 votes (79.1% of valid votes) against 4,374 (20.9%) for Flávio Bolsonaro. The tally is unofficial until the electoral court (TSE) confirms it.
Does the overseas vote predict the national result?
No. Brazilians abroad are under 1% of voters and lean differently by country, so Germany says little about the national outcome.
Sources: TSE (Brazil’s electoral court), ballot-box reports, 25 October 2026, Polymarket, Brazil Presidential Election. Opened on Sunday 25 October 2026. Figures are unofficial.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief