NIGERIA · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- —The country Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country, a major oil producer and a federal republic that elects a president every four years.
- —What happened On Monday 26 October 2026 the ruling party’s Kaduna branch told Atiku to quit, and the ADC demanded proof of a salary claim.
- —The two men President Bola Tinubu leads the governing APC, while Atiku Abubakar, a former vice-president approaching 80, is the candidate of the opposition ADC.
- —The vote Nigeria elects its president on Saturday 16 January 2027, which is 81 days after Tuesday 27 October 2026.
- —The history Both men rose in 1999, Atiku as vice-president and Tinubu as governor of Lagos, and in 2023 Tinubu won 8,794,726 votes to Atiku’s 6,984,520.
- —Prediction markets Bettors on Polymarket gave Tinubu a 69.5% chance of winning the presidency (27 October 2026, 3:34 a.m. ET).
- —Still open The APC has published no evidence for its salary claim, and the sources show no answer from Atiku to the call to withdraw.
On Monday 26 October 2026, the Kaduna branch of the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) told Atiku Abubakar to quit, reviving the Atiku Tinubu rivalry. Atiku, a former vice-president approaching 80, runs for the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) against President Bola Tinubu.
Tinubu leads the APC, which opened its campaign in Kaduna, a major city in Nigeria’s north, on Saturday 24 October. This explainer sets out how the two men’s paths crossed, what the latest exchange of accusations is about and why it matters before the vote.
Who Atiku and Tinubu Are
Atiku served as Nigeria’s vice-president from 1999 to 2007, while Tinubu governed Lagos State over the same eight years, according to Arise News and TheCable. Lagos is Nigeria’s commercial centre, so the Atiku Tinubu rivalry stretches back more than two decades.
Atiku has chased the presidency for decades, losing the Social Democratic Party ticket in 1993 and running under the Action Congress in 2007. After losing primaries in 2011 and 2015, he stood for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2019 and 2023, allAfrica reported.
How the 2023 Election Split Them
Nigeria’s electoral commission, INEC, declared Tinubu the winner of the presidential vote on Wednesday 1 March 2023. ICIR reported that he took 8,794,726 votes, against 6,984,520 for Atiku and 6,101,533 for Peter Obi of the Labour Party.
Atiku won the ADC ticket on 27 May 2026 and says the APC-led government uses security agencies against opposition figures, allAfrica reported. That accusation shapes the Atiku Tinubu rivalry in 2026.
The Atiku Tinubu Rivalry Since 2007
Vice-President Kashim Shettima said at the Kaduna rally on Saturday 24 October that Atiku ran to Tinubu in 2007 after the PDP pushed him out. Tinubu gave him “political succour”, Shettima told the crowd, according to Daily Trust.
Atiku’s spokesman Paul Ibe replied to an earlier Shettima remark about 2007, TheCable reported. Ibe said delegates from all states nominated Atiku, and that Tinubu’s time as Lagos governor “would have been rough” without Atiku’s support.
What the Latest Exchange Is About
On Monday 26 October the APC’s Kaduna State publicity secretary, Mohammed Sani Haruna, urged Atiku to drop his bid and back Tinubu, Daily Trust reported. He pointed to the crowd at the Saturday rally as proof that Atiku can no longer count on northern votes.
The APC presidential campaign council, through minister Dele Alake, accused the ADC’s national leadership of leaving party staff unpaid for over 12 months, Punch reported. ADC publicity secretary Bolaji Abdullahi called the claim a falsehood and challenged the APC to produce evidence.
Alake’s statement also alleged that staff at Atiku’s Gotel Communication and other businesses once went months without pay. Abdullahi replied that the real issues are the cost of living, jobs and insecurity.
Shettima separately told the Nigerian Economic Summit in Abuja on Monday that Atiku lacks the skills to run a modern economy, Daily Trust reported. He also attacked Atiku’s plan to bring back the petrol subsidy.
Why the Fuel Subsidy Sits Under the Feud
Shettima’s remarks came as Atiku proposes to restore the petrol subsidy if elected, a payment that kept pump prices low until Tinubu ended it. Shettima called the idea a step backwards and said Tinubu took “painful decisions” because he understands the economy, Daily Trust reported.
The ADC says the cost of living, unemployment and insecurity should dominate the debate, Punch reported. That difference, between a government defending its reforms and an opposition promising relief, is what the two camps now campaign on.
How Each Camp Plans to Campaign
ADC campaign communications director Phrank Shaibu told Arise News on Sunday 25 October that Atiku will visit all 36 states, Legit Hausa reported. He said the plan includes town-hall sessions, community visits and trips to villages, not only big rallies.
Legit Hausa also reported that Tinubu plans to attend APC rallies in person in 12 states, so as to balance campaigning with governing. The ADC says a campaign schedule will follow soon, and what Atiku’s bid means for the next 81 days is covered in a companion piece.
What It Means for US Readers
Nigeria is a major African oil producer, so a close or contested vote would matter to investors and oil buyers. The fuel subsidy is the clearest policy gap between the two men.
Read the exchange as early campaign positioning, because no candidate has withdrawn and the Atiku Tinubu rivalry still decides the main contest. For earlier coverage, see Tinubu’s Kaduna campaign launch and Nigeria’s key political players.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket bettors gave Tinubu a 69.5% chance of winning the presidency (27 October 2026, 3:34 a.m. ET), with about US$136,313 traded across the field. That market is not a head-to-head between Atiku and Tinubu.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The APC campaign council has published no records of unpaid party staff, and the statements quoted by Punch name no affected worker. The sources show no public answer from Atiku’s camp to the Kaduna APC’s call to withdraw.
It is not known how many people attended the Kaduna rally, because crowd figures come only from the organisers. No independent poll in the sources measures support for Atiku against Tinubu.
More: Nigeria news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Atiku Abubakar?
Atiku Abubakar is a former Nigerian vice-president who served from 1999 to 2007. He is the ADC’s candidate for the presidential election on 16 January 2027.
What is the Atiku Tinubu rivalry about?
The Atiku Tinubu rivalry is a contest for Nigeria’s presidency that also carries a dispute over who helped whom in 2007. Tinubu beat Atiku in 2023 by 8,794,726 votes to 6,984,520.
Did the APC prove its unpaid salaries claim?
No evidence was published with the statement, Punch reported. The ADC called the claim a falsehood and asked the APC to produce proof.
When is Nigeria’s next presidential election?
Nigeria votes for its president on Saturday 16 January 2027, the next stage of the Atiku Tinubu rivalry. Governorship elections follow on Saturday 6 February 2027.
Will Atiku drop out of the race?
Nothing in the sources shows Atiku planning to withdraw, so the Atiku Tinubu rivalry looks set to continue. His campaign says he will visit all 36 states.
Sources: Punch: ADC demands proof as APC knocks Atiku over unpaid salaries, 27 October 2026; Daily Trust: Drop your presidential bid, support Tinubu, Kaduna APC tells Atiku, 27 October 2026; Daily Trust: Tinubu gave you succour when PDP chased you in 2007, Shettima tackles Atiku, 24 October 2026; Daily Trust: Atiku not qualified to preside over modern economy, Shettima, 26 October 2026; Legit.ng Hausa: Ba kamar Tinubu ba, Atiku ya kawo sabon tsari a yakin neman zabensa, 26 October 2026; TheCable: Atiku to Shettima, Tinubu’s tenure as Lagos governor would have been rough without my support, undated (October 2026); ICIR: INEC declares Tinubu President-elect, 1 March 2023; allAfrica: Atiku Wins ADC Ticket, Set for 4th Presidential Run, 28 May 2026; ICIR: 2027: INEC picks January 16, February 6 for presidential, governorship polls, 27 February 2026; INEC: election countdown and calendar (inecnigeria.org), 27 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief