NIGERIA · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —The country Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country, a major oil producer and a federal republic whose president serves a four-year term.
- —What happened The Tinubu Kaduna APC campaign opened on Saturday 24 October 2026 with a rally for his second-term bid in north-western Nigeria.
- —The party The All Progressives Congress (APC) governs Nigeria, and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is the opposition party of Atiku Abubakar.
- —The crowd Outlets reported a packed stadium, but no official headcount exists, and reported capacity ranges from more than 5,000 to about 10,000.
- —The dispute The APC accused Atiku and the ADC of planning fake news and deepfake videos, and the ADC asked for evidence.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket bets gave Tinubu 68.5% and Uba Sani 64.0% to win their races, at 1:08 p.m. ET on 24 October 2026.
- —Still open Nobody has published a crowd count or proof for either side’s claims about the rally.
The Tinubu Kaduna APC campaign began on Saturday 24 October 2026, when President Bola Tinubu asked a packed stadium for a second term. The All Progressives Congress (APC), Nigeria’s governing party, chose the north-western city to open its 2027 presidential race.
Tinubu addressed the flag-off, the party’s ceremonial campaign launch, Nigeria Info FM and Vanguard reported. The APC accused Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president now with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), of plotting against the rally.
What Happened at the Kaduna Rally
Supporters began arriving at Ranchers Bees Stadium, also called Kaduna Township Stadium, on Friday night, Premium Times reported. By about 10 a.m. on Saturday the Chronicle found the seating areas full, and Voice of Nigeria said supporters filled virtually all available seats.
Zamfara State Governor Dauda Lawal was among the governors at the venue, Leadership reported. Premium Times said party members and officials were expected from all seven north-western states, including Kano, Sokoto, Kebbi and Katsina.
Daily Trust noted that Atiku, then with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), beat Tinubu in Kaduna State in the 2023 election. That makes the Tinubu Kaduna APC campaign launch a test of strength in a state he lost.
What the Tinubu Kaduna APC Campaign Launch Promised
Tinubu asked Nigerians for a renewed mandate and blamed his opponents for the hardship many families face, Nigeria Info FM and Vanguard reported. “They created the hunger, they created the poverty,” he said.
He also said salaries are being paid regularly, praised the party’s governors and thanked Kaduna voters for backing him in 2023. He urged eligible voters to collect their Permanent Voter Cards, Nigeria Info FM reported.
Kaduna Governor Uba Sani, an APC member, said over 300 schools and 150 health centres closed by insecurity have reopened, Tribune and Leadership reported. He said the Abuja-Kaduna expressway is 95% complete and warned that opposition campaigns now use artificial intelligence.
Sani said the federal government had released N172 billion (about US$129 million at 1,329.8 naira per dollar) for the Kaduna-Birnin Gwari road, Leadership reported. These are the governor’s own figures, converted at the 24 October 2026 rate.
Works Minister David Umahi cited more than 348 kilometres (about 216 miles) of finished federal roads in the north-west, Nigeria Info FM reported. He said Tinubu had ordered solar streetlights on the 375-kilometre (about 233-mile) Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano road, and flags went to seven governorship candidates.
Crowd Size Claims Remain Unsettled
No official headcount has been published for the Kaduna rally. Voice of Nigeria called the crowd mammoth and put capacity at more than 5,000, while Daily Trust quoted a reported capacity of about 10,000.
Muhammad Badaru Abubakar, director-general of the group Arewa for Asiwaju, said it aimed to bring over 10,000 supporters from the northern states, Daily Trust reported. Daily Trust added that a Kaduna political analyst said a smaller stadium could look full.
Some supporters of the Tinubu Kaduna APC campaign slept in the stadium and on nearby streets, Premium Times reported. Zaidu Bala, a media aide to the Kebbi State governor, said Kaduna hotels were fully booked.
The APC Charge Against Atiku and the ADC
Dele Alake, the APC campaign council’s spokesperson, said Atiku and the ADC planned to discredit the rally, Daily Trust and Blueprint reported. In a Saturday statement he said the plan used fake news, AI-generated content and deepfake videos aimed at the Tinubu Kaduna APC campaign.
Alake said a photo of a security vehicle near an APC billboard had been twisted to suggest police guard the party’s posters. He also called a purported letter, which claimed Kaduna had released N2.3 trillion (about US$1.73 billion) for the rally, baseless.
Alake cited Kaduna’s budgets for 2024 to 2026 of N458.271 billion (about US$345 million), N790.439 billion (about US$594 million) and N985.9 billion (about US$741 million). He said they show the state could not have released such a sum.
Phrank Shaibu, director of strategic communication of the ADC presidential campaign council, replied on Saturday, The Journal and The Whistler reported. He called the warning a diversion from the government’s record and asked Alake to produce “names, dates and forensic findings.”
Shaibu also alleged that supporters were brought in from distant states and left sleeping on Kaduna’s streets, adding, “You cannot hire consent.” The Whistler reported that the billboard photo came from a Daily Trust report on police protecting Tinubu billboards, which Atiku had only shared.
Premium Times reported before the rally that the ADC had accused the APC of using state resources and security personnel to guard its campaign posters. APC supporters in the state denied this and said officers were posted at strategic locations to protect the public.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a betting platform, priced Tinubu at 68.5% to win Nigeria’s presidential election at 1:08 p.m. ET on Saturday 24 October 2026. That was down 0.5 points in 24 hours, with about US$86,900 traded on his contract, while its Kaduna governor market priced Uba Sani at 64.0%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Nigeria is a major oil producer and Africa’s most populous country, so the race shapes the climate for US investors in the naira and energy. The Tinubu Kaduna APC campaign puts food and fuel prices at the centre, while the ADC says living costs are the real issue.
Visitors should expect heavy security and road restrictions around campaign events, as police warned before this one, Daily Trust reported. Our explainer on the early APC campaign in Kaduna covers why the party picked the city, and the party’s campaign council line-up is already public.
What Is Not Known
No official crowd count has been published, and reported capacity ranges from more than 5,000 to about 10,000. The APC has shown no evidence of a plot, and the ADC has not proved its claim of outside supporters.
The APC has published no full campaign route, and Shaibu alleged Tinubu would visit only 12 states. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) lets presidential campaigning run until 15 January 2027, Daily Trust reported.
More: Nigeria news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
When did the Tinubu Kaduna APC campaign start?
The Tinubu Kaduna APC campaign opened on Saturday 24 October 2026 at a rally in the city. Tinubu asked Nigerians for a second term, Nigeria Info FM and Vanguard reported.
Where was the rally held?
The rally took place at Ranchers Bees Stadium, also known as Kaduna Township Stadium, in Kaduna in north-western Nigeria. Reports put the stadium’s capacity between more than 5,000 and about 10,000.
What did the APC accuse Atiku and the ADC of?
The APC’s campaign spokesperson, Dele Alake, said Atiku and the ADC planned fake news, AI-generated content and deepfake videos to discredit the rally. These are the party’s claims, and the APC had not published evidence by Saturday evening.
How did the ADC respond?
Phrank Shaibu, the ADC campaign council’s communications director, asked Alake for “names, dates and forensic findings” and called the warning a diversion. He also alleged that APC supporters were brought in from distant states, a claim the APC has not answered.
How many people attended the Tinubu Kaduna APC campaign launch?
No official figure has been published for the Tinubu Kaduna APC campaign rally. Voice of Nigeria and the Chronicle described full seating areas, while the ADC disputes how the crowd was assembled.
What do prediction markets say about Tinubu?
Polymarket bets gave Tinubu 68.5% to win the presidency at 1:08 p.m. ET on 24 October 2026. Prediction markets are not polls, and the contract had modest trading volume.
Sources: Nigeria Info FM: Tinubu Launches Re-Election Bid, Blames Opponents for Hunger and Poverty, 24 October 2026; Vanguard: They created the hunger, Tinubu slams opponents at Kaduna rally, 24 October 2026; Premium Times: APC supporters slept at Kaduna venue, streets ahead of flag-off, 24 October 2026; Daily Trust: APC accuses Atiku, ADC of plot to discredit Kaduna rally, 24 October 2026; Daily Trust: Tinubu’s northern test begins, 24 October 2026; Leadership: Insecurity, Tinubu’s interventions reopen 300 schools in Kaduna, Uba Sani, 24 October 2026; Tribune: North will repay you with votes, Uba Sani tells Tinubu, 24 October 2026; Voice of Nigeria: Supporters fill Kaduna Stadium for APC flag-off, 24 October 2026; The Journal: Kaduna rally, ADC dares APC to prove deepfake claims, 24 October 2026; The Whistler: Tinubu, Atiku campaigns trade barbs over Kaduna rally, 24 October 2026; Leadership: Crowds flood Kaduna streets for APC campaign flag-off, 24 October 2026; Chronicle: Tinubu flags off 2027 campaign as supporters fill Kaduna, 24 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief