NIGERIA · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- —The country Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and a major oil producer, and its president is elected for a four-year term.
- —What happened On Monday 26 October 2026 the ruling party’s Kaduna branch told Atiku Abubakar to quit the race, and his party demanded proof of a salary claim.
- —The calendar Nigeria votes for president and parliament on Saturday 16 January 2027, 81 days from 27 October, and for governors on 6 February.
- —The tickets Bola Tinubu runs for the APC, Atiku for the ADC and Peter Obi for the Nigerian Democratic Congress, among 18 candidates.
- —The plan Atiku’s campaign says he will visit all 36 states, while Tinubu’s party has listed 12 states for his personal rallies.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Tinubu a 70.0% chance of winning the presidency, as of 3:54 a.m. ET on 27 October 2026.
- —Still open Atiku has not answered the call to withdraw, and his campaign’s state-by-state timetable has not yet been published.
The Atiku presidential bid drew a sharp response on Monday 26 October 2026, Daily Trust reported. The Kaduna branch of Nigeria’s ruling party told Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president, to quit and back President Bola Tinubu.
His party, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), answered a separate national attack from the ruling party the same day, Punch reported. The two exchanges, set against the Atiku-Tinubu rivalry, show how the 81 days before the 16 January vote may be fought.
The Atiku Presidential Bid and the APC Response
Mohammed Sani Haruna, publicity secretary of the Kaduna chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC), spoke at a briefing, Daily Trust reported on 27 October. He said the large crowd at Saturday’s campaign launch in Kaduna proved that Atiku can no longer count on northern votes.
Haruna said Atiku, who is approaching 80, should align with Tinubu. He also said people queued from 4 a.m. for the rally and rejected online claims that the footage was fake or that attendees were paid.
How the ADC Pushed Back
Separately, the APC’s presidential campaign council said the ADC had not paid party staff for more than 12 months, Punch reported. The statement came from council spokesperson Dele Alake, who is also Minister of Solid Minerals.
The ADC’s national publicity secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, called the claim an irresponsible falsehood and asked the APC to produce evidence. He said the real issues are the cost of living, jobs and insecurity under Tinubu.
Atiku’s Campaign Plan Against Tinubu’s
Phrank Shaibu, communications director of the ADC campaign, told Arise News on Sunday 25 October that Atiku will visit all 36 states, Legit.ng Hausa reported. The Atiku presidential bid will include town-hall meetings and visits to villages, and a timetable is due soon.
ThisDay reported on 16 October that the ruling party picked 12 states for Tinubu’s own campaign, with a closing rally in Lagos on 9 January. Tinubu lost nine of those 12 states in 2023, and ThisDay read the list as a map of battlegrounds.
The Road to 16 January 2027
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which runs Nigeria’s elections, fixed the presidential vote for Saturday 16 January 2027, its election calendar shows. Party primaries ran from 23 April to 30 May 2026, and presidential campaigns opened on 19 August, Voice of Nigeria reported.
INEC published its final list of 18 presidential candidates on Saturday 12 September, with Atiku paired with Rotimi Amaechi, a former Rivers State governor. Campaigns must end 24 hours before polling, so the last day falls on Friday 15 January.
Next Steps and Scenarios to Watch
The first thing to watch is whether the Atiku presidential bid continues, since nothing in the reports suggests he plans to withdraw. The second is the ADC’s state-by-state timetable, which Shaibu said would leave no state out.
The third is how the opposition vote splits, because Peter Obi runs for the Nigerian Democratic Congress with Rabiu Kwankwaso as his running mate. A crowded field also raises the chance of no clear winner, because the constitution asks for 25% in two-thirds of the states, BusinessDay explained.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket gives Bola Tinubu a 70.0% chance of winning, as of 3:54 a.m. ET on 27 October 2026. US$86,956 has traded on his contract and US$136,313 across the event.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and a major oil producer, so a vote in 81 days matters to holders of its bonds and currency. Bettors treat Tinubu as the clear favourite, and Polymarket lists no separate price for Atiku.
Rhetoric about wages or rally footage rarely moves markets, but a disputed result or a rerun could. Americans with business, family or travel links to Nigeria should expect large rallies through January.
What Is Not Known
Atiku has not publicly answered the Kaduna call, and the APC statement on salaries gave no details of the alleged dispute. The ADC has not yet published the dates of Atiku’s state tours.
The reports do not give a deadline for withdrawing or replacing a candidate, so the end date of the Atiku presidential bid is unknown. No independent crowd count exists for the Kaduna rally, so claims about turnout rest on each side’s word.
More: Nigeria news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Atiku Abubakar and why does his bid matter?
Atiku is a former vice president of Nigeria and the ADC’s candidate for the 2027 election. The Atiku presidential bid is his latest run, and the ruling party treats him as a challenger in the north.
When is Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election?
INEC has set Saturday 16 January 2027 for the presidential and National Assembly elections. Governorship elections follow on Saturday 6 February 2027.
Has Atiku said he will withdraw?
No withdrawal has been announced in the reports from 26 and 27 October 2026. His campaign director said the Atiku presidential bid will include visits to all 36 states.
What is the ADC and who leads it?
The African Democratic Congress is an opposition party that has nominated Atiku, with Rotimi Amaechi as his running mate. Its national chairman is David Mark and its secretary is Rauf Aregbesola.
How many candidates are running for president?
INEC published a final list of 18 presidential candidates on 12 September 2026. The best known are Tinubu for the APC, Atiku for the ADC and Peter Obi for the Nigerian Democratic Congress.
Sources: Daily Trust, Drop your presidential bid, support Tinubu, Kaduna APC tells Atiku, 27 October 2026; Punch, ADC demands proof as APC knocks Atiku over unpaid salaries, 27 October 2026; Legit.ng Hausa, Ba kamar Tinubu ba, Atiku ya kawo sabon tsari a yakin neman zabensa, 26 October 2026; INEC, Full Election Calendar, 27 October 2026; Voice of Nigeria, INEC issues revised timetable for 2027 general election, 27 February 2026; News Agency of Nigeria, 2027: Tinubu, Atiku, Obi, 15 others make INEC final presidential candidates list, 12 September 2026; Arise News, 2027 polls: INEC clears Tinubu, Obi, Atiku, others as presidential candidates, 12 September 2026; BusinessDay, 2027: ADC picks Amaechi as Atiku’s running mate, 15 June 2026; BusinessDay, The 2023 presidential election: the twists and possibility of a rerun, 2023; ThisDay, President’s choice of 12 states for personal campaign, 16 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief