Argentina’s Peso Holds The Line As Politics, Copper Bets, And Quiet Intervention Collide

Argentina woke to rare calm on Thursday. The peso opened close to Wednesday’s finish, with officials widely seen selling dollars around 1,425 in the wholesale market to cap swings.

On retail boards the official dollar sat near 1,400/1,450, while the street-traded blue hovered around 1,440/1,460—an unusually tight 1–2% gap that signals a market being carefully held in place rather than fundamentally healed.

A steady Dollar Index just under 98 removed outside pressure. Stocks were softer. The S&P Merval closed Wednesday down 0.5% at roughly 1.765 million after a stop-start session shaped by currency caution.

In New York, the main Argentina ETF finished lower, with investors waiting for today’s U.S. trading to reveal whether risk appetite returns.

The story behind the story is credibility and time. President Javier Milei is courting former president Mauricio Macri’s machinery to push reforms at home while floating external support ideas abroad that could ease dollar scarcity.

Until those become signed programs with clear terms, traders assume the central bank will keep leaning against the market to hold the peso steady.

There is a medium-term carrot: mining. Glencore’s renewed push on large copper projects under the new investment regime points to future hard-currency inflows if permits, financing, and community agreements line up.

That sits alongside a cautiously better social backdrop—urban poverty at 31.6% in the first half—still high, but improving—and could matter for consumption and political stability.

Technically, USD/ARS is holding above short-term support on daily charts and regained momentum on four-hour charts after a midweek shakeout, suggesting stabilization so long as the 1,389–1,402 area holds.

The Merval is trying to base between 1.67–1.70 million, but needs a decisive break back above roughly 1.80–1.85 million to argue for a durable equity turn.

Top 5 Winners and Losers — S&P Merval (Oct 1, 2025 close)

Winners: Ternium Argentina (TXAR) +7.20%; Aluar (ALUA) +5.10%; Telecom Argentina (TECO2) +1.52%; Cresud (CRES) +1.27%; Comercial del Plata (COME) +0.90%.

Losers: Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) −3.43%; Banco Macro B (BMA) −2.25%; Metrogas (METR) −1.97%; BYMA (BYMA) −1.82%; BBVA Banco Francés (BBAR) −1.65%.

In plain terms: Argentina’s market is calm because it’s being held steady, not because the funding question is solved. Confirmation of external support—and evidence that copper dollars will really arrive—would change that story.