Argentina’s MERVAL Edges Higher as Technical Barriers Limit Gains

Official market data confirms the S&P MERVAL Index closed July 3, 2025, at 2,078,160.80 ARS, up 0.73% for the session. The index extended its rebound for a third consecutive day, but it remains 26.56% below its January record.

The market’s performance over the last 24 hours reflects a cautious optimism, with traders responding to both local and global signals. Trading volumes stayed close to recent averages, with financials and industrials leading turnover.

The day’s top winners included Loma Negra, which benefited from sector strength and recent analyst upgrades. Banco BBVA Argentina also advanced, supported by positive economic data showing 7.7% year-on-year growth in April.

On the losing side, YPF shares fell after continued legal uncertainty from a U.S. court ruling, while Telecom Argentina and Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos saw declines as investors took profits after recent gains.

Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the MERVAL remains in a medium-term downtrend. The price closed below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which continue to act as resistance.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovered from oversold levels but stayed below the neutral 50 mark, indicating that momentum remains weak.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator flattened, suggesting the market has not yet confirmed a trend reversal. Bollinger Bands narrowed, reflecting reduced volatility and a lack of strong directional conviction.

The four-hour chart reveals a fragile rebound. The index trades above short-term moving averages, but it faces resistance at key levels. The MACD shows a recent bullish crossover, and the RSI has moved toward neutral territory, but neither indicator signals a strong trend.

Volume analysis confirms that buyers have not yet returned in force, and the market lacks the conviction needed for a sustained breakout.

Benchmarking the MERVAL against regional peers, the index’s 0.73% gain lags behind the S&P 500’s advance but outpaces Brazil’s Bovespa, which closed flat.

Chile’s IPSA rose 0.69%, showing similar momentum to Argentina’s market. The MERVAL’s year-to-date performance remains negative, reflecting persistent local risks and global uncertainty.

Fundamental factors continue to weigh on sentiment. The peso’s ongoing weakness and the unresolved YPF legal dispute limit foreign investor appetite.

ETF flows into Argentine equities remain positive, with the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF reporting $14 million in inflows over the past month, but this support has not translated into a decisive market rally.

The real story behind the numbers is one of a market searching for direction. Technical signals point to a fragile recovery, but resistance levels and weak momentum cap gains.

Investors remain wary, balancing hopes for reform-driven growth against persistent legal and currency risks. The MERVAL’s rebound, while notable, remains tentative as traders await clearer signals from both the domestic economy and global markets.