Chilean Peso Edges Lower as Copper Slides and Dollar Index Rebounds

Official market data for July 4, 2025, shows the Chilean peso trading at 929.84 per US dollar in the morning, after closing at 927.79 the previous day.

The peso weakened slightly overnight, reflecting a cautious market tone as copper prices fell and the US dollar index rebounded. Copper, Chile’s main export, declined over the last 24 hours.

International copper futures dropped for a second consecutive session, with renewed demand concerns weighing on sentiment. The price per pound slipped, and the day’s trend showed a clear downward move, with spot prices and contracts both closing lower than the previous session.

This drop in copper prices removed a key support for the peso and contributed to its softer performance against the dollar. The US dollar index (DXY) rose by about 0.4% on July 3, closing near 97.13 after stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls data.

This marked the largest one-day gain since mid-June, but the index remains down more than 8% year-to-date. The short-term rally in the dollar index, driven by positive US labor data, added further pressure on the peso.

US nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, beating expectations and providing temporary support for the dollar. However, the effect on the peso was limited, as the Chilean central bank maintained its benchmark rate at 5.5% and the economy is forecast to grow between 2.0% and 2.75% in 2025.

Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the peso consolidating, with the price oscillating in a narrow range. The MACD remains negative but is flattening, suggesting that bearish momentum is losing strength.

The RSI stands at 44.49, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish tone. Key support sits at 924.70, while resistance is found at 934.45 and 936.09. The four-hour chart reveals a mildly bearish short-term trend, with the price below key moving averages.

The MACD is negative, showing continued downward momentum, while the RSI at 42.17 signals mild oversold conditions. Immediate support is at 927.87, with resistance at 931.60 and 936.13.

Trading volumes in USD/CLP have remained steady, with institutional investors adjusting positions in response to global risk sentiment. ETF flows show global investors favoring bonds and commodities, while US equity funds have seen outflows for several weeks.

The peso’s performance over the last 24 hours reflects a market balancing local fundamentals with global macroeconomic forces. The technical picture aligns with a consolidating market, as traders await new catalysts from US policy or copper price shifts.

The story behind the numbers is one of caution, with neither bulls nor bears taking control, and the market poised for a move once fresh information emerges.